1. Treasury Presses Ahead With Plan For Toxic Assets
I have no idea how the markets will respond to this news.
As short term traders, we are ready to lock in profits from our Wednesday Stop and Reverse trade (Dow 7550-7600, SPX 795-810 and NASDAQ 1500 OB).
Market pivots are slightly below Friday’s close circa Dow 7140 and SPX 750.
It is a coin toss whether they drop to Dow 7000 or even 6600 or rally to SPX 800 or higher next! 
However, from a fundamental view, I am both cautious and somewhat bearish; despite the fact from a long term perspective, many high quality company stocks are undervalued.
Bottom line: Unless you believe we have seen the worst and that there are only a few more months before things turn around, stay very cautious and liquid investors.
 

 
KEY DATES:    MARCH 23, 26

DJIA:                7216 PIVOT SUPPORT 6600 RESISTANCE 7600
SPX:                740 SUPPORT? 810 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:        1380 SUPPORT 1500 RESISTANCE
XAU:                135 PIVOT120 SUPPORT 145 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD:     940 PIVOT 900 SUPPORT 980
MAY SILVER:   13.50 PIVOT 12.50 SUPPORT  R1 13.80  R2 14  R3 14.50
XOI:                  820 PIVOT 900 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          60 PIVOT 55 SUPPORT 67 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       12 ~ FV 6 UV; 13 offer 4%+ Dividends 9 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  Natural Gas, Suddenly Abundant, Is Cheaper
We have been buying Natural Gas (NG) May contracts. While there is current resistance at $4.50 and further downside risk into April, like Oil, we believe NG has found (or will soon find its bottom).  The XNG or Amex Natural Gas stock index is up 20% in March.  However, just as NG has a resistance pivot at 4.50, likewise this stock index around 370.
We expect a break out by or before May. Until then, short term traders should lock in profits, while those will a longer horizon can continue further accumulation.
 

3. Bank crisis spawns new kind of gold rush 

 "If the positive performance of the stock market, which was witnessed during last week, continues in the same momentum people may shift their investment from gold, putting pressure on the precious metal."
Rajesh Jain, Vice-President, SMC Global 

Thanks to Ben, gold held $880 long term support last week. As Monday/Tuesday could represent a short term trading high for gold, our current thinking is to wait at least until the G20 meeting before joining an expected Spring Rally for Gold. 
We have yet to determine whether to increase our Fair Value of Gold from $895 to $908 or as high as $951. Stay tuned.
 

4. “I’m mostly worried about the economy. We do think inflation will be quite low over the next couple of years. At the same time, we have to be very careful to make sure we are prepared to withdraw monetary stimulus at the appropriate time to make sure that down the road we don’t have inflation.”
Ben Bernanke
HW: You seem to be drinking from the same cup of tea as your predecessor Alan. 

“Sell the dollar!” This is huge, huge. It’s equivalent to the Plaza accord. This is the last thing they have in the closet, and they used it a bit early.”
Scott Ainsbury, portfolio manager, FX Concepts
HW: Unbelievable short term thinking! 

“We've crossed the Rubicon. We have absolutely severed any connection between our dollar and reality. It's as fast as you can print it right now."
Howard Simons, strategist, Bianco Research
HW: Oh boy! 

5. naked capitalism: On the Fed's "Shock and Awe" 

Oil sands companies may yet go to the ball 

INFLATION WORRIES
Dear John: With all the money being printed by the US government and nobody buying the debt, do you think the US dollar will be devalued? Or will it become like the currency of Zimbabwe, which nobody wants to own? 

6. READER: You short the avgs again?
HW: Yes from SPX 800 but we are ready to stop/cover on Monday circa 7000 to 7100. 

READER: This is probably the $64? million question, but when is a good time to get back into stocks (excluding oil and PM which sounds like you are saying after the week on the 23rd on these)...
.I missed getting in at 6600 (let me fear control me) so at this point do I wait for another drop or just go ahead and buy 1/3 now before I miss the whole boat....I find all this very frustrating/confusing bc before you know it, the opportunity has passed as is the case now...so can you offer any insight on target entry points and % of portfolio at this point into the broader market (not oil or PM) ?...I guess you just have to make the plunge at certain targets and hope for the best...hard to jump in past the fear which is what stopped me at 6600 last week and in 2001....I need to overcome this bc there probably won't be many more opportunities if I don't watch it....
HW:  I believe you will have at least one more good buying opportunity between now and the end of April. If/when we see Dow 6400-6600 I think 30-50% of a long term portfolio is reasonable, even though it COULD (but not likely) go lower or stay down. 

READER: Do you think gold is already test its $895 and now is a good time to go long?
HW: Possibly. I will know better next week after Tuesday.  It may be enough of a test or maybe there isl one more coming before June. 

READER: Do you think gold is breaking out or at the top of the range for another dip soon? I own SSRI and was thinking of taking profit, you were looking to buy SSRI around 10.70 is this still likely to happen in your opinion?
HW: We should know by Wednesday whether gold rallies above $980.  I would take profits FREQUENTLY in these markets.  However, I would also be prepared to buy SSRI again (or a junior silver stock) higher should market conditions warrant.  SSRI is less likely to see 10.70 short term now thanks to Ben, but it is still possible. 

READER: Is it time to buy financial stocks like C, BAC, AIG or is it time to sell them?
HW:  They can rally or go lower on ANY day based on Washington news.  I do not like to own such unknown and uncontrollable risk in my portfolio.
By FOMC, I would take or lock in current long profits e.g. GE & AXP. I would not buy them neither would I short them. 

READER: Re:- I want to buy Oil Stock: I advise EXXONMOBIL and ROYAL DUTCH SHELL.
HW: Yes those are two good conservative long term choices.