1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. CASSANDRA CORNER
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS 

1. JANUARY 20^TH INAUGURATION HOROSCOPE & OBAMA INVESTING
Until we know exactly what time Obama is inaugurated as the 44^th US President (12.00pm is NOT the same as 12.02 or 12.04), we will hold off making some of our astrological judgments for 2009. 

As investors, we are awaiting a test of Dow 7300 to 7600 before being more fully invested in the market.  That could come as soon as this February or perhaps as late as Q2 2009.
Remember today’s economic problems will NOT be solved in 2009.  However, if the “road to recovery” is clear and firm, markets WILL rally to above their recent highs. 

BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL? or WATCH AND WAIT?
We see no reason for the overabundance of Fear and Caution in today’s markets to exit before spring. We opt for the latter.
 

KEY DATES:    JANUARY 20, 23
DJIA:                8200 PIVOT SUPPORT 7800 RESISTANCE 8776
SPX:                 850 PIVOT
NASDAQ:        1513 PIVOT
XAU:                105 PIVOT 85 SUPPORT 130 RESISTANCE
FEB GOLD:       840 PIVOT S1 810 S2 800 S3 770   R1 888 R2 900 R3 922
MAR SILVER:   FV $12 $10 SUPPORT?  $12 RESISTANCE?
XOI:                  970 PIVOT 1040 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          60 PIVOT $55 SUPPORT $67 RESISTANCE  

The New Market Marker Sentiment is A Known Weak Economy; so what me worry? No! Buy.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                        7 ~ FV 5 UV; 13 offer 4%+ Dividends 7 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. We believe there are likely to be more negative surprises than positive ones in the current earning season.  It is an ideal time to blame the credit crisis for disclosing what would otherwise be obvious failure of senior management planning.
While markets are likely to retest down in spring, this earning season COULD be the bottom for some first class blue chip long hold and holds.  But be in no rush. If you miss THE bottom, the next bottom will be close enough and entail less risk. 

3. We remain bullish on black and yellow gold on an intermediate term basis as we believe both will be higher before year end. This presents TODAY a number of long term buying opportunities.
I would like to rephrase a recent NY Times quote on real estate and substitute PM:
 “These times will show who loves this business and who doesn’t and will separate the real precious metal people from the people who are here just to make some money and run away.” 

4.  Obama-bubble could burst as soon as Wednesday 

5.  "The only way we can get a new bull market is to get people sanguine about global growth. We are a long way from that. Until I see evidence to the contrary, this looks like a rally in a bear market."
Phil Roth, chief technical market analyst, Miller Tabak
HW: I agree.
 
“People are refocusing back on disappointing economic and corporate news and risk aversion has risen again. Earnings news is going to be disappointing.”
Robert Talbut, chief investment officer, Royal London Asset Management.
HW: How disappointing is the question? How can anyone be optimistic short term who has ANY sense of reality? 

"In our view the only scenario in which realized volatility is likely to be higher than what is already implied is a global depression, such as that observed in the 1930s. Hence, any macroeconomic scenario that turns out to be better than a deep global recession is likely to yield a positive return for investors that are short volatility, or more generally short any form of equity-risk premium."
Marko Kolanovic, options strategist, JP Morgan
HW:  We agree with the consensus view that by summer, market volatility will decline. 

6. Financial crisis great for gold

HW: You betcha! 

Obamamania May be Investor Nightmare 

Will 2009 be a return to the misery of 2008? 

7. READER: Where do you see ^DJI? Remember if it closes today 15th Jan'09 and tomorrow 16th Jan'09 below 8270. Becoz - It would have closed for three consecutive trading days below 8270. 
I repeat - If ^DJI closes on 15th and 16th Jan'09 below 8270 then by latest 31st March'09 you will see ^DJI at 7000. Pray it does not. There will be blood on Wall Street.
HW: At some point we continue to see the high probability of 7400-7500 test in H1 2009. 

READER: Gold’s going down about 7% - 9% just in several days to around 810. How do you see current movement, still may going down to retest 750 or something?
How do you see Gold Low & Upper in Q1 2009?
HW: A decisive break below $800 would give a rough $760 target.  Upside targets are currently $890 first, then either a retest down or higher to $912 to $922.. 

READER: what do you think of LQD?
HW: Technically, it has strong resistance nearby at 104-105 , a pivot at 99/100 and multiple supports at 96, 93 and 90. The whole question of dividends stability is something I have been thinking a lot about recently. One rule of thumb is sell a stock when it first cuts its dividend. Hence, as we can assume there is more dividend cuts ahead, I would be inclined to wait until just before or after the next earnings season to buy OCO circa DOW 7300-7500. 

READER: Your current view of refiners such as Valero (VLO). 
HW:  We think it is a no-brainer especially with current low oil pricing.  Once it breaks out above $26 resistance, we expect to see a double to $40 by next year if not sooner.