1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1.
MONEY, MONEY, WHO’S GOT THE MONEY?
Many
stocks will be higher in 2011, but those without cash or access to cash may go
bankrupt or become take over candidates.
Depending on each individual situation, those may or may not be worth
buying in H1 2009.
Hence good
fundamental analysis will be key - Especially
look to access to cheap cash and if not, whether a potentially profitable
M&A candidate.
JANUARY & APRIL EARNING SEASONS = MIXED
MARKETS UNTIL JUNE.
It
should be no surprise that many earnings reports will be poor this month. Forward looking earnings will be “cloudy and
uncertain” at best.
Investors
will ponder each earnings confession with the question: HOW MUCH OF
THIS BAD NEWS IS ALREADY BUILT INTO THE PRICE?
The
stars suggest February down (March up) and January mixed with a probable upward
bias due to January 20th enthusiasm and hope.
INVESTORS: Given February will be down, there is really little
incentive to commit additional funds into long term investments.
We
remain short term bullish on gold and intermediate term on energy.
TRADERS:
Don’t be surprised by a pre-US presidential inauguration Rally; don’t be
surprised if there is one. Continue to
Buy/Accumulate Dow 7700-8100 Sell/Distribute 9200-9600.
INVESTORS:
My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and
only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value
pricing.
Invest
only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until
2010-2011.
LONG/SHORT
PORTFOLIO: L1/S1.
KEY
DATES: JANUARY 13, 16
DJIA:
8776 PIVOT SUPPORT 8200
RESISTANCE 9200
SPX: 903 PIVOT SUPPORT 840 RESISTANCE 940
NASDAQ:
1577 PIVOT
XAU:
105 PIVOT 130 RESISTANCE
FEB GOLD: $912 FAIR VALUE
MAR SILVER --> $12
XOI: 900
PIVOT 1020 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL 55 PIVOT 50 SUPPORT P1 65 P2 $71 P3 76 P4 91
The New
Market Marker Sentiment is A Known Weak Economy; what me worry? No! Buy.
2008 CLOSE:
DJIA 8776, SPX
903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:
DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 &
NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:
DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 &
NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:
DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ
2205
DJIA 6 ~ FV 6 UV; 12 offer 4%+ Dividends 10
offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK
SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. “Given we are bullish on both gold and oil for
2009,
Note: Our closing 2008 target for the TSE was 9200. Depending on your
viewpoint, its 2008 close of 8,987.70 was either close, or one day off, as it
ended January 2 the next trading day at 9234! Currently its value is …”
WSNW
subscribers can read more from our premium post: S: Canada
3. Transitioning
from Bonds to Gold
It should be obvious that with more
4. “I’m optimistic; I think we’ve taken our medicine. My view is we’ve seen the bottom and things are
very cheap.”
Arthur Byrnes, chairman, Deltec Asset Management
HW: That is not my view. I expect to see alternate bouts of
market enthusiasm and reality. Many
technicians including yours truly would prefer to see at least one more test of
Fall 2008 lows.
“We see bad economic news everywhere. As people start to
realize it’s a very long recession, the bear market will continue.”
Philippe Gijsels, senior equity strategist, Fortis Global
Markets
HW: You betcha!
"There will be trading opportunities, but I don't think
we've hit the bottom yet. We should get more clarity when we see
John Mar, co-head of sales trading, Daiwa Securities SMBC
HW: We expect to see
alternate bouts of market enthusiasm and reality. Many technicians including yours truly would
prefer to see at least one more good test of Fall 2008 lows.
5. Byron
Wien Forecasts 33% Gain in S&P This Year, Rallies in Crude Oil, Gold
6. READER: You’re more bull
HW: Yes, all
three.
READER: Would you please tell me how long th
HW: June 2009
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