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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK:  JANUARY 12, 2009
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER


1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
 

1. MONEY, MONEY, WHO’S GOT THE MONEY?
Many stocks will be higher in 2011, but those without cash or access to cash may go bankrupt or become take over candidates.  Depending on each individual situation, those may or may not be worth buying in H1 2009.
Hence good fundamental analysis will be key - Especially look to access to cheap cash and if not, whether a potentially profitable M&A candidate. 

JANUARY & APRIL EARNING SEASONS = MIXED MARKETS UNTIL JUNE.
It should be no surprise that many earnings reports will be poor this month.  Forward looking earnings will be “cloudy and uncertain” at best. 
Investors will ponder each earnings confession with the question: HOW MUCH OF THIS BAD NEWS IS ALREADY BUILT INTO THE PRICE?
The stars suggest February down (March up) and January mixed with a probable upward bias due to January 20th enthusiasm and hope. 

INVESTORS: Given February will be down, there is really little incentive to commit additional funds into long term investments.
We remain short term bullish on gold and intermediate term on energy.

 

TRADERS: Don’t be surprised by a pre-US presidential inauguration Rally; don’t be surprised if there is one.  Continue to Buy/Accumulate Dow 7700-8100 Sell/Distribute 9200-9600. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2010-2011.  

LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1.

 
KEY DATES:    JANUARY 13, 16
DJIA:                8776 PIVOT SUPPORT 8200 RESISTANCE 9200
SPX:                  903 PIVOT SUPPORT 840   RESISTANCE 940
NASDAQ:        1577 PIVOT
XAU:                105 PIVOT 130 RESISTANCE
FEB GOLD:       $912 FAIR VALUE
MAR SILVER    --> $12

XOI:                  900 PIVOT 1020 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL           55 PIVOT 50 SUPPORT  P1 65 P2 $71 P3 76 P4 91

The New Market Marker Sentiment is A Known Weak Economy; what me worry? No! Buy.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205           

DJIA 6 ~ FV 6 UV; 12 offer 4%+ Dividends 10 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. “Given we are bullish on both gold and oil for 2009, Canada will out perform many global indices.  However, it will be not as grand as the past.  Moreover, as time goes by, the C$ will out perform the US$.
Note: Our closing 2008 target for the TSE was 9200.  Depending on your viewpoint, its 2008 close of 8,987.70 was either close, or one day off, as it ended January 2 the next trading day at 9234! Currently its value is …

WSNW subscribers can read more from our premium post:  S: Canada
 

3. Transitioning from Bonds to Gold 

It should be obvious that with more US brokerage houses forecasting $1200 gold, that whether or not gold retests $750 too $800 again over the next few months, before the end of 2009 GOLD will be Trading $1000! 

4. “I’m optimistic; I think we’ve taken our medicine.  My view is we’ve seen the bottom and things are very cheap.”
Arthur Byrnes, chairman, Deltec Asset Management
HW: That is not my view. I expect to see alternate bouts of market enthusiasm and reality.  Many technicians including yours truly would prefer to see at least one more test of Fall 2008 lows.
 

“We see bad economic news everywhere. As people start to realize it’s a very long recession, the bear market will continue.”

Philippe Gijsels, senior equity strategist, Fortis Global Markets

HW: You betcha!

 

"There will be trading opportunities, but I don't think we've hit the bottom yet. We should get more clarity when we see U.S. earnings reports in 2 [1] weeks time. It's pretty apparent that they won't be good, but market reaction to these results will help indicate if current levels have priced in a bad earnings environment."
John Mar, co-head of sales trading, Daiwa Securities SMBC
HW:  We expect to see alternate bouts of market enthusiasm and reality.  Many technicians including yours truly would prefer to see at least one more good test of Fall 2008 lows.
 

5. Byron Wien Forecasts 33% Gain in S&P This Year, Rallies in Crude Oil, Gold 

Invest with the astrologers 

Should you follow the advice of market timers? 

6. READER: You’re more bullish on oil and gold than other managers I’ve talked to. Do you have any particular reasons for that — financial, economic or astrological reasons?
HW: Yes, all three. 

READER: Would you please tell me how long this New Market Marker is good until? What is the date of the next New Market Marker?
HW: June 2009

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