1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS

Bleak Recession News is well known but is it built in? No...Yes...No... Yes...Who cares? I want a Xmas bonus! 

What is Fair Value for the US Stock Market?
It is clearly above 8000 Dow, 800 SPX and 1400 Nasdaq! 

Did you know that Infrastructure is replacing widows and orphans’ utility buys? 

Next WSNW issue: Obama Stocks. 

ASTRODATES
11/27 New Moon 11:54 am ET & Uranus SD 

 
KEY DATES      NOVEMBER 27/28
DJIA:                8000 PIVOT 
SPX:                 800 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         1350 PIVOT
XAU:                 R1 93  R2 100 R3 120
FEB GOLD:       800 PIVOT R1 840  R2 870  R3 912
MAR SILVER    P1 11.80 P2 13  P3 14
XOI:                  900 RESISTANCE      
JAN OIL:           $50 PIVOT R1 $55 R2 $60 R3 $67 
 

New Market Marker Sentiment Part 1 [12/2, 12/30]:
Bleak Recession News is well known but is it built in? No...Yes...No... Yes...Who cares? I want a Xmas bonus!
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       5 ~ FV 6 UV; 12 offer 4%+ Dividends 9 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  So much to buy!
Fair value of Nasdaq is above 1400. Hence last week we suggested buying AND holding Tech Blue Chips such as Intel and Dell. Additionally Tech stocks such as IBM and Cisco are long term accumulates. 

BUSINESS & BANQUETS LAST WEEK
At the Wall Street Analyst forum at the University Club,  we enjoyed the presentations of Claude Resources (CGR) and Mag Silver (MVG). Both clearly are appropriate holdings for serious Metals and Mining portfolios. 

At the Silver Institute Annual Dinner, GFMS’s forecast was for declining Silver production largely due to the reduction in base metal mining.
Currently the Gold/Silver ratio is 83. We believe it should BE closer to 65.  Hence, we are currently doubly long Silver.
Note: This week Silver has some very strong astro influences which could be positive Or negative. We plan to stay most alert. 

3. "The Fed understands that on a three- to five-year basis, a downward adjustment of the dollar at an orderly pace will be part of the global-adjustment process."
Richard Clarida, global adviser, Pimco
HW: $1200 gold I don’t mind. It is $1500 or $2000 gold that I will find disturbing.

If  the latest Chase forecast is right and the Fed lowers US interest rates to .05 in December, and to .00 in January, we will move up our $1200 gold target from “by 2011” to “by 2010.”
Short term, we maintain our Fair Value gold target of $912.

4. “A number of industries' and sectors' stocks have fallen by huge percentages over the past year and appear to be at pretty attractive valuations based on historical measures. There can be some small-scale buying done in this market environment.''
Dean Gulis, comanager, Loomis Sayles
HW: Absolutely. 

"Investors channeled their nervous energy away from the credit markets and are now obsessing over the direction of the economy. Unfortunately, most of their fears are being realized, as economic arrows point lower."
Jack Ablin, chief investment strategist, Harris Bank
HW: Fear is nature’s way of saying: “Think Swiss and Preserve Capital”. 

“You're going to continue to get barraged with bad economic data.  Management Earnings have hit a wall or fallen off a cliff in a lot of cases. You're not likely to see much help from this front for a while.''
Bill Stone, chief investment strategist, PNC Wealth
HW: True. The question is at WHAT PRICE is THIS NEWS built in. I would say it was at last week’s stock market prices. 

5.  Stocks look cheap, but that doesn't mean you should buy 

'I still like gold,' says Marc Faber 

Great-Depression-2-2011 

6. READER: Right on!  Give 'em hell! Perfect prediction!
HW: Thank you, Thank you. 

READER: Will 7800 hold or do you expect it to go much lower? Also sentiment has turned more bearish after the 18^th. Is that the outlook until December?
HW:  7800 may or may not hold.[It didn’t] If not, the 2002 lows of 7400s should  The outlook to Xmas is NOT bearish. On the contrary, market professionals want a bonus, or at the very least, not to lose THEIR job.
We have a three part Market Marker: Part I is: Bleak Recession News  is well known but is it built in? No...Yes...No... Yes...Who cares? I want a Xmas bonus!
Part II coming December 2. Stay tuned... 

READER: A broker from another firm surmises if we break 7600, we could go to 6000.  Do you agree that we could go to those levels and if not, why?
HW: Anything is possible of course, but it is more likely that if we break 7600 that we see 7400.  The way Ben is printing money, 6000 in US pesos?  Not a high probability at THIS time. 

READER: I was also buying on Thursday at the end. We were earlier by 3 days 18th instead of 20.
According to you as well as me it should last till Dec end .What is your target for S&P for this rally, mine is 963 or 1030 max. My targets are technical can it be verified astrologically.
Any views on Citibank astrologically or technically, is it going to fall or will be saved.
HW: Both 963 and 1030 are good targets; we will see both, but not necessarily consecutively
Citibank’s astrological forecast is a dog.  But did you really need an astrologer to tell you that? 

READER: They went below your levels but recovered on Friday 21st Nov'08 lows: 
i) New 52 week low for ^DJI = 7392 Dow
ii) New 52 week low for NASDAQ COMP = 1295 NAS
iii) New 52 week low for S& P 500 = 741 SP 
You put your neck out on 20th Nov'08 and bought - Dow 7852, SP 787 and NAS 1371. They closed at 8046, 800 and 1384 respectively. You are in profits! 
Are you going to hold your positions till 2010-2011???   
I feel you should book your profits and run!
HW: You forget that we are both trading intraday, positionally as well as investing.
1)       Our forecast was good for 300 points within one hour- Bull’s eye.
2)       Our End of day buy (for Asian day traders and US positional traders) made 300 points before Europe.
3)       Our End of day buy for investors we plan to hold SPECIFIC stocks until 2010/2011 OCO each specific stock price target. Thereafter, we use profit stops or sell. 

READER: NG price has crashed to $ 1.30. It could be a steal or it could mean putting your money into the dustbin.
I have done a detailed analysis of the annual reports and here is my take:
The company is burning through approx $ 60 million of cash a year in operations and another $ 200 in construction/mining activity. They have been surviving thus far by raising equity/debt and selling assets. Both these activities are going to be impossible in the current environment. The current cash/liquid assets will be probably carry NG through the next 6 months or so after which they will face a liquidity crisis.
They are expecting commercial production in 1Q 2009, but I have no idea if they are on track and how much they expect to sell. If this happens this company may survive. Otherwise it could go bankrupt. The price of gold turns out to be irrelevant in such a scenario.
While NG has been more transparent than usual, they still have not actually stated what their plans for survival are in this tough environment. Is it simply those Canadian banks are more amenable to lend?
You continue to think NG is still one of the safest buys in the gold sector. I am curious to know if you agree with my analysis and why you think NG is such a safe bet.
HW:  Like all precious metal companies, they are implementing steps to conserve cash.  Today, Nova may or may not be one of the safest trades in the gold sector, but they  certainly have one of the very best risk/reward trading and investing profiles!  We are still strongly recommending friends and clients buy at these prices for four reasons:

        1)       Gold is going higher to $900+ and that will improve the stock prices for almost all mid and large cap gold stocks,
2)       Under $3, NG is more a non-expiring stock option than a stock,
3)       NG has good properties and more important first class management and
4)       NG has a good horoscope.