1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. READY FOR MY SUMMER VACATION
Before long markets will forget about earnings, take a vacation, and then begin to ponder the implications of the November US Presidential election.  We are comfortable with fresh intermediate trading buys under Dow 11K and sells above 11,725.  Our new big August play is looking for a good first and second entry for undervalued, but high quality precious metal stocks and then gold and silver. Markets will still have oil on the brain as $125 tests as the new floor/ceiling and hopefully also $110, the maximum the world economy can tolerate with recession.  Before Spring 2009, we expect to see $90 oil. Will the new $80 mantra be fulfilled BEFORE the US election? That is one fervent republican prayer, is it not? 

SOLAR ECLIPSE DEAD AHEAD!
Short term it affects China (which continues to be our short term MAJOR sell) and Russia.  Intermediate term it pressures Iran. 

ASTRODATES
8/1 Solar Eclipse   6:13 am ET
8/16 Lunar Eclipse 5:16 pm ET
8/22 Sun enters Virgo 2:02 pm ET 

TRADERS: We remain short term bearish on commodities Stay prepared for Wild/Crazy markets. Ahead of FOMC meeting, we recommend only short intraday trades.
INVESTORS: My long term view is well known: focus on protecting against downside risk.
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1. 

KEY DATES:    JULY 31, AUGUST 1
DJIA:                12400 PIVOT
SPX:                S1 1240  S2 1220 SE 1200 R1 1285  R2 1300  R3 1320
NASDAQ:         2300 PIVOT
XAU:                172 SUPPORT?
AUGUST GOLD:905 FAIR VALUE
XOI:                  1240 SUPPORT
SEPT OIL:         $125 PIVOT S1 122 S2 115  S3 110
The Market Marker Sentiment OIL ON THE BRAIN UNTIL OCTOBER 3!DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       2 ~ FV 1 UV; 7 offer 4%+ Dividends 5 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. We continue to advise ONLY make new long term investments with very undervalued high quality stocks that are misunderstood by the market, e.g. BAC under $21. But even here, we recommended selling or hedging at $34 last week. We would consider rebuying under $25.

3. While there are MANY good reasons to own precious metals, I see no reason to ignore August which is traditionally often a seasonal low for Gold and Silver.  This will be especially true if Oil drops below $110.   Gold above $905 is overvalued by our trading model.  However, a number of quality microcaps and a few midcaps are NOT.  The ideal buys are under $900 and if not under $850, then under $875. Stay tuned: We will send out an alert when we are ready to buy.

Silver Ishares (SLV) did a 10-1 split last week to make them “more accessible” to investors.  Will this help Silver  rally to $19 before a test below 17 of $16?  While it can’t hurt,  I am no more ready to buy Silver (yet) than I am gold. 

4. “This is a market that's looking for any good signs. People are trying to find the light at the end of the tunnel.''
John Massey, mutual fund manager, AIG SunAmerica Asset Management
HW: I am always mindful of “tunnel vision.” 

"In this weak economy, where people are expecting companies to miss, the fact that companies are doing OK even versus these lowered expectations is really good news. In crude and other commodities, we've had a pullback and that could eventually be good news down the line."
Robert Doll, chief investment officer, BlackRock
HW: The lower prices go, the closer stock prices get to real value. 

"We have passed the market bottom. I would expect 20 percent returns plus over the next 12 months.''
Max King, investment strategist, Investec Asset Management
HW:  It is possible, although one or more markets tests are coming ahead of the fall US Presidential Election. 

5.  The Dow: Three reasons why it may be time to buy

HW: Under 11,111 and with 6% Dividends there will be some profitable long term buys.

This Bear Market May Have More Bite

The Big Picture | No Recession? No Inflation? Don't Make Me Laugh! 

6.  READER; How do you see lowest trading range in July - December 2008? And how's about the possibility highest level on Gold till February 2009?
When’ll we need to start accumulate physical Gold, august or September, on what's level?
HW: Yes good to accumulate in August and early September.  Our ideal buy price is about $833-$836, but we are willing to begin higher depending on the price of oil. In the meantime, we wait. 

READER:  Time to buy gold?  X says gold will gold will go to 870-900 or Down against 800. He mostly believe 870-900.
HW: Well those numbers are not here and worth a first buy in August.