WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JULY 7, 2008
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS

1. IS A BLOOD BATH COMING? IF SO, FOR STOCKS AND/OR COMMODITIES?
The next downside risk to the US stock market is 10800 which marks strong long term support and where we expect to see a lot of buying, including our own.
Alternately, markets may rally several hundred points first, and then retest recent lows but not break them.
We continue to believe OIL prices hold the key:
Should Oil remain high, then stocks will drop.
If commodities drop in July which continues to be our bet, then stocks will be range bound and hold up enough to offset the poor July earnings reports.

This week: Be patient, look for individual stock values and generally only buy/sell extremes.
 

TRADERS: We stay prepared for Wild/Crazy markets. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known: focus on protecting against downside risk. 

LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1. 

KEY DATES:    JULY 10
DJIA:                11300 PIVOT 10885 SUPPORT  11615 RESISTANCE
SPX:                1252 SUPPORT 1325 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2250 PIVOT 2302 RESISTANCE
XAU:                185 SUPPORT
AUGUST GOLD:925 PIVOT 880 SUPPORT  955 RESISTANCE
XOI:                  1500 PIVOT
AUGUST OIL:    135 PIVOT S1 130 S2 125 S3 123 R1 138 R2 140  R3 145 

What is the new summer Zeitgeist?
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                      ~ FV 2 UV; 10 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.   We plan to do little or nothing this week but watch and study markets.

 

3.  We still believe the precious metals can fall hard in July. Obviously this depends on both the strength and weakness of the US Dollar and Oil. However, should oil base above $135 for the rest of the week then gold is more likely to move up then down.  

4. "The general outlook will be pretty lousy."
Doug Sandler, chief equity officer, Riverfront Investment Group
HW:  The question is to what extent is that build into stock prices. The answer, I believe, a qualified maybe. 

"Market rallies don't always feel like rallies when you're in them."
Craig Callahan, president, Icon Advisers
HW: The next one may be so quick and over so fast, that if you blink, you may miss it! 

"We're in a very tough phase for the stock market, and there may well be more thunder and lightning before the storm passes. But a sharp bounce is coming."

Richard Band, editor of the Profitable Investing newsletter

HW: The market is ready, willing and able.

 

5.The danger zones of 2008

This week's TSX plunge was proof that the markets are enduring the most dangerous – and narrow – year since 1974. So far, the winners are a select breed of commodity-related stocks. The losers? Just about everything else

 

Small-cap stock run could herald broader recovery

The Upside of the Debt Called High Yield 

6.  Readers on holiday!
 

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