1. JUNE MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS

"I'm not feeling any better.  I would have liked us to be a little farther along than we are. Now our forecast is for a delayed recession, rather than a canceled recession."
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist, Standard & Poor's
HW: A key question is whether it will be “delayed” until before or after the November US presidential election! 

This week is about the dollar and Oil. While astrologically markets are a mixed picture, they are also sitting on potential short term support and hence could easily strongly rally if the news is good  this week.  At the time of writing this WSNW, I am moved more by hope than fear. Hope that the Saudis will succeed and that Ben will do the right thing again by saying what is necessary for a stronger US Dollar.  If so, we can expect a short rally before MORE inevitable selling as the true global economic realities slowly sink in.  Should Oil speculators flaunt the Saudis, or the US Dollar weaken as Ben is not “strong” enough, then Oil will stay high and markets are likely to drop down further sooner rather than later.  

From an investing view point, we are more or less ON HOLD and likely to do little this week except perhaps to slowly start to accumulate precious metals shares, should a $900 base clearly be forming now (still not our bet).
However, if stocks do crash this week, there will be some intermediate term value with the Dow under 11,500. Ideally we wish to BUY and HOLD long term closer to Dow 11K than 12K.
Should markets rally, then hopefully we can go short as traders in early July.
 

KEY DATES:     JUNE 25, 26
DJIA:                12000 PIVOT 11850 SUPPORT? 12500 RESISTANCE?
SPX:                 1320 SUPPORT 1360 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2400 PIVOT
XAU:                 172 SUPPORT
AUGUST GOLD:900 PIVOT 860 SUPPORT  920 RESISTANCE
XOI:                  1500 PIVOT
AUGUST OIL:    135 PIVOT S1 130 S2 125  S3 123 R1 138 R2 140  R3 142 

The Market Marker Sentiment until JULY 4th is:  
#1 Housing & Oil Worry
#2 Commodities drop, Stocks rally; then Oil rallies, #3. Stocks drop; then baby stock rally & Oil ignored!
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                      2 ~ FV 1 UV; 9 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  If markets drop sharply, we might buy. Certain dividend stocks from a two year perspective are currently sporting good value, although we believe they will be even cheaper before November.  Otherwise we prefer to buy the Summer or early Fall lows.

3. "I wouldn't be surprised to see it [silver] spike down as low as $13.50 or $14" in the July-August period”

Jeff Christian, Director, CPM Group

HW: Neither would I.

As the GDX is close to $41.50-$42 support, some nibbling is ok as gold stocks are cheap compared to gold.  However, while we may miss the bottom, we find the risk/reward for gold too high this week.  Gold can easily drop to retest below $880. Hence. I would prefer to buy higher and safer if wrong short term.  On Wednesday, will the Euro be closer to $1.50 or $1.60? 

4.  "Earnings momentum is going to be bad. The slowdown is underway. It's a return to the 1970s with the oil shock and inflation.
aDidier Le Menestrel, president, Financiere de l'Echiquier
HW: It could be unless the Saudis “save us”
 

“It's all really very bad news flow for the banks and for the markets. If there is no light in what is becoming a long, dark tunnel, that does spell bad news for equity markets.''

Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist, Brewin Dolphin Securities

HW: It is increasingly difficult to be optimistic short term.

"I think we have a little bit of inflation but certainly not runaway inflation. The inflation story would fade quickly if oil pulls back below $120 per barrel," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.

HW: Sure if only $110-$115. it would be a “steal”, wouldn’t it?

5. How our 10 investing themes for '08 are doing, and what's changed

S&P's Second-Half Outlook for Sectors and Styles

The Market's Most Overvalued Stocks 

6. READER: The astrologer I spoke to in the UK who works for one of the country's largest banks says there will be a major shake-out this September and October.....
Are you ready for the global stock meltdown this September/October?
HW:  Is the meltdown then or earlier? 

READER: You can now buy options on the Gold bullion-GLD. Comments?

HW: well I don’t think we have yet seen the best pricing available, nor the best time.

Options are best for extreme pricing.

READER:  1.The best time: That will probably be August. Last year gold went up 54% in 6-7 months.
2. The best pricing available: What is better?
HW:  1. As August could be too soon; I prefer September/October as you may need more time.
2. We are still hoping for 820 or better, or at least under 850.

READER: Due regards to Mr. George Soros and his billions. In spite of 'speculators' in Crude Oil trading at world platforms - This bubble will not burst like the 'dot.com' bubble in the year 2000 or the 'housing bubble' of 2007-08. 
There could be a correction in Crude Oil prices to US $ 129.00 pbbl or maybe even lower but the bubble will not burst. I stand by my predictions as per my website under AFUND umbrella. US $ 180 pbbl by Mid 2009. 
Also I feel ^DJI can test 11300 by July-August 2008. More bad news to come from American Financial Sector. Lehman results and need for further cash infusion as of 6/17/2008 as reported by CNBC is starting of the second phase of bad news in the US Financial Sector. 
HW:  Dow 11300 is easily reachable especially if Oil reaches your target.  At the moment, the former, but not the latter price targets agree with us. 

READER: Is the $900 range good for starting to buy Gold? or Is there Down Possibilities again in end of June?
HW: Yes we are VERY short gold just now. I think too early to buy gold- too expensive short term for my taste. Time will tell. 

READER: A friend of mine sent me two ETN-Exchange Traded Note-from DB-Deutsche Bank: 
DZZ: Short on Gold with 200% leverage. 
DGP: Long on Gold with 200% leverage. Comments?
HW: I suggesting using ONLY when certain and at extreme pricing. 

READER: I'm interested in buying foreign treasury instruments.  Which countries would you recommend for stability ? (Switzerland and/or Canada? Others ?)
Any educated guess on timing for near term USD peak? Have a happy solstice.
HW: I haven’t looked at Switzerland recently.  But in general I favor Canada.  The US dollar may get stronger this coming week although it is fairly valued at $74 but that can change with Wednesday FOMC meeting and ECB announcements.
While a possible peak may already be in or coming next week, I am still thinking early Summer.