1. MAY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
 

NEW MARKET MARKERS COMING
I will be glad when we are into the summer so I can stop having Oil on the brain. Right now US markets are greatly affected by the price of oil.
If Oil stays up, markets will be range bound or lower.
If Oil and commodities drop back to current fundamental reality, markets could rally strongly into July, although thereafter will fall again due to general economic weakness. 

MARKET POSITIVES

• M and A especially from foreign acquisitions
• Election games
• Export Markets strong 

MARKET NEGATIVES

• Current Oil prices
• Housing crisis wont "end" until 2010
• Financial banking issues remain
• July earning season will show declining earnings from reduced sales/profits for many industries
• Consumers Lean on Rebate Checks for Bills and Gas
• Incredible Shrinking Buybacks
• Stagflation Concerns 

Bottom line: US economy is weak.

For investors, the strategy is obvious:  Raise cash and sell into rallies any stocks you don’t want to own past November 2008. 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX:  PIMCO -INVESTMENT OUTLOOK JUNE 2008 

JUNE 2008 STATE OF US ECONOMY
PROSPERITY [Strong Profits]: 21%
RECOVERY [Weak Profits but Improving]: 25%
RECESSION [Small losses or Weak profits and Declining] 45%
DEPRESSION [Serious Losses] 9%
Hence by OUR numbers the US is well in our forecasted recession.
 

ASTRODATES
6/3 New Moon 323 pm ET

6/18 Full Mon 1:30 pm ET
6/19 Mercury SD
6/20 Summer Solstice 7:59 pm
6/26 Uranus SD
 

 
KEY DATES:     JUNE 5, 6
DJIA:                12500 SUPPORT 12888 RESISTANCE
SPX:                 1400 PIVOT 1378 SUPPORT  1432 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2525 PIVOT
XAU:                 180 PIVOT 170 SUPORT 195 RESISTANCE
AUGUST GOLD:888 PIVOT
XOI:                  1490 PIVOT R1 1500  R2 1510 R3 1540  S1 1420 S2 1380 S3 1320
JULY OIL:         126 PIVOT 118 SUPPORT 135 RESISTANCE

The New Market Marker Sentiment is known June 5.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                      3 ~ FV 1 UV; 7 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Our investment advice remains a “buyers strike” while US markets are above 12K. 

3. Oil bubble could prove threat to pension funds & Why Gold Will Get Whacked Again!

Commodity Policies Set for Revision 

While commodities could continue to remain strong in June, we are maintaining and increasing our bearish stance.  We had planned to begin buying precious stocks early June to midSeptember.
We have decided to wait one or two weeks before initial accumulations at least until Gold is less than our Q2 2008 fair value price of $875. 

4. “Conditions do not seem to be getting much worse, Consumer spending should pick up a bit as the fiscal stimulus checks filter out.''
Russell Price, senior economist, H&R Block Financial Advisors
HW: I think not. 

"Investors will ask, is this it? And if this is the worst, we should start to think about recovery. I think it is much too early for that. But that's the mood."
Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist, Global Insight
HW: I agree with you. 

“This particular slump seems to be milder than any recession since the Great Depression. Growth is decidedly subpar.''
John Lonski, chief economist,  Moody's Investors Service
HW: It is more accurate to say that the economic statistic reporting is decidedly subpar! 

5. Oil Companies Threatened by Rising Costs Mask S&P 500's 26% Profit Decline 

Betting on Energy's Rocky Balboa 

Tice Proves Every Bear Has a 9.5% Return as He Invokes "D" Word 

6. READER: Please clarify what you mean by your portfolio.  ("Last week: L1/S0 This Week L1/S2")  What does L/1 mean?  S/2?  Where do I access this information on your site? 
HW:  This refers to L(ong)/S(hort) portfolio hedging. If this is not something you are familiar with, then it is  not likely to be of concern. 

READER: I have mentioned to you earlier also that Crude Oil prices at these $ 116 to $ 120+ levels ( even @ $ 75+  levels ) has nothing to do with demand and supply. At today's global demand of about 86 million barrels per day - the supplies meet the demand..Now more and more global investors are buying Crude Futures as a 'hedge' against a weak US Dollar and also inflation thereof. Crude is on its way to $ 180+ levels and by Mid 2012 at $ 300 pbbl. There could be mild corrections during this journey.
Gold is not cheap and Crude is not too expensive as of now!  Yes Gold will correct to $ 840 to 810 pto when IMF sells physical Gold in the global markets over a period of six to eight weeks. My estimate of time period is between July thru September 2008. I have advised investors to buyers for Gold at around $ 810 pto levels and hold it long term for $ 1500 - $ 2400 and $ 3000 pto levels thru 2010 - 2012. 
HW: I don’t agree as I see 136.50-135 as a top zone for oil, but I do agree that $810 to $820 would be a. very profitable intermediate term/long term buy and hold investment. 

READER: How do you see the current sideways Gold Market will be taking place? After down to $855 area, Gold moved higher again to $920 area currently.
Do you see another downward correction again in Gold Market in 2008? If yes, Where'll be the next target area and When it'll be? Astrologically, when will you see the Gold starting going upside?
HW: Anything is possible.  If/when oil drops this month below $120 and/or next,  gold will see  840 first.  I would not buy oil, but if oil continues to stays above $126, then gold is a buy   I was planning a slow accumulation of gold stocks but not gold from early June to September.  However, rather confusing and Oil (and gold) could easily fall out of bed.  With high oil prices, demand will drop and the absence of major geopolitical problem, so will  oil prices sooner OR later! 

READER: Dear Henry, It's quite a confusing time.  Do you still think Gold will go back to $840?  Do you still think this week is a good time to buy gold and oil?
HW: It may be, but I won’t buy but am delaying our first buys until later in June.