1. MAY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. FRIDAY MAY 9 ALERT: MARKETS ARE AT A CRITICAL POINT TODAY    
“While from one viewpoint stocks markets should be dropping, however to us it seems more likely that Commodities (Oil, Grains. Gold etc) will drop considerably next week. If so there will be a brief market rally. We will reshort markets somewhat higher end of next week or circa 5/19-5/20. 

In the meantime, we have covered our stock market shorts and are modestly long and at the same time we are MASSIVELY short commodities over the weekend.  If wrong, we will take a [big] loss and then regroup.  However, we advise all of you to consider what higher oil prices mean and when demand will slow DRAMATICALLY - Only a question of time and price.
See you at our July Triple Gold Conference.

TRADING MARKERS:  DOW 12727 SPX 1386 NAS 2441     OIL 126 GOLD 888 BEANS 1358 

With Jupiter going SR May 9 as one key astrological indicator, we forecast a Top/Bottom in markets.  The question is:  Whether in the Commodity or Stock market!!!
I can offer plenty of fundamental, technical and astrological reasons why this should be so.  However, it is really ALL about OIL prices.  So whether Oil at 126 is a top and gold at $888 a temporary top, or whether this fundamental disconnect continues, makes markets rather interesting this coming option expiration week.  STAY TUNED!  STAY LIQUID! 

INVESTORS: WHILE IT IS PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO SELL ON RALLIES, WE PLAN TO DO SO BEFORE THE NEXT REPORTING SEASON. 

 
KEY DATES:     MAY 19, 20
DJIA:                12750 PIVOT 13100 RESISTANCE
SPX:                 1388 PIVOT R1 1400 R2 1410 R3 1420
NASDAQ:         2450 PIVOT
XAU:                 180 PIVOT 166 SUPORT 195 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD:     888 PIVOT SUPPORT 840 RESISTANCE 910
XOI:                  1500 PIVOT 1540 RESISTANCE
JUNE OIL:         125 PIVOT S1 115 S2 110 S3 107 

The Market Marker Sentiment is:  Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears change end of May.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                      3 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  While I am short term bullish as a trader, I do not like the CURRENT risk/reward of investing, especially given our trading plan to be short next week again. 

3. "We know something is wrong. Is gold too cheap or is oil too expensive? One of the two is true. I would think that oil is driving everything, really,"
Leonard Kaplan, president, Prospector Asset Management
HW: Our bet remains Oil is too expensive. 

Short term, more than a US Dollar play, Gold buying is ALL a bet on Oil. If you believe Oil is staying up or going higher you buy, if you don’t, you don’t.
Originally we had planned to do a first buy at 858. Had we done so, we would have exited Friday around 890.  I now believe we will see 840-825 or better now. Hence, we are ideally looking to buy gold AFTER it tests $840. 

Re: Oil If oil continues to be sky high past Wednesday’s 10:30 report, we must by necessity begin to cry UNCLE! 

4. “The earnings results have been better on the whole than people had thought, apart from those areas that are really in the thick of problems [like financials].
Jane Coffey, head of equities, at Royal London Asset Management
HW: It is generally bullish when analysts under-estimate earnings, no matter how poor they are. 

“The financial sector is going to continue to be a drain. The market had a short time period of feeling like it's over and we escaped. Now there's a realization that this isn't over.''
Dan Genter, president, RNC Genter Capital Management
HW:  But should financials rally again, then all will be reminded in July it ain’t over. 

“Consumers have cut back significantly in just about every area but necessities, and we're seeing clear evidence of this. Weakness in our economy also seems to be affecting growth in other areas of the globe, thus slowing demand for our exports as well.”
Russell Price, senior economist, H&R Block Financial Advisors
HW: Is that a contrarian buy signal?  Or does it just rate an “outperform” for Wal-Mart (WMT). 

5. A Crack Technician’s Indicators Yell Sell 

AS GOES THE WINTER, SO GOES THE SUMMER?
Mark Hulbert examines the "Sell in May" seasonal indicator and finds losing winters are often followed by losing summers. 

Best of the Blogs 

6. READER: Do you mean that re short the market in stock or commodities (especially Gold)? If also in gold, how do you see the most likely bottom in 2008?
HW: This is a short term forecast, but potentially a BIG one. We are no longer shorting the stock market, but instead commodities.
Gold can easily fall below $840 to test $800/810 support.  However, if Oil does continue to rally, or not drop below $120, then gold will instead rally to $910 or more, while stocks are likely to drop instead of rallying. 

READER: I am increasingly worried to trade from USA:
1. USD risk, hyperinflation: Market 'reforms' a gift to Wall St.
2. According to Harry Schulz there is a risk USA will confiscate your money under hyperinflation. And there is rumors US will limit foreigners possibilities to take their money back to their own country. If so consider them as lost! 
3. So what currency is best to trade in? Euro? Swiss money? Asian money? 
4. With the coming problems banks can go bankrupt. What to do here?
HW: 1) Yes, but as long as gold is under $1000, it is too early to get really worried.
2) No. Under such a scenario, they would allow you to keep as many worthless US dollars as you wanted.
3) Currently still the US dollar.
4) Spread the risk and make sure your bank has full insurance. I don’t think you have to really worry much before 2010! :)

READER: I respect your views as always except on Crude Oil. You have seen my predictions for Crude Oil from US $ 38 pbbl levels since January 2003. Please do not go short on Crude Oil. This monster is now 'out of bounds' for Bears.  
Rest commodities is fine. Gold - Around the time IMF dumps physical Gold in the world markets in the near future I expect a panic bottom of US $ 840 or 810 pto. At this point buy truck loads. A golden opportunity to buy Gold for investors who missed the bus at $ 465 pto levels in October 2005 as per my web page! Gold will be around US $ 1500 by 2010 and US $ 3000 by 2012. Double your money 2 yrs!!!
HW:  $125 technically and midMay is one critical Time/Price for Oil. As for your Gold numbers, I agree with your two potential buy numbers. Whether oil is above or below $100 will determine our first price entry.