1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB

For me the most positive market event last week was Monday’s announcement that Chinese banks are now allowed to invest in U.S. stocks and mutual funds. The Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission previously allowed banks to invest client money in Hong Kong, Britain, Japan and Singapore under QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) auspices.
Compared to the Shanghai stock market, New York is seriously undervalued. I repeat, compared to Shanghai. 

While some foreign and US money managers believe the combination of a weak US dollar and current stock pricing is “cheap”, I do not. I don’t consider many US stocks undervalued or even trading at value!
While I do not believe the worst is over for US banks and brokerages, investors may try to bargain hunt the news of JPM, MER, C etc next week.  I do not plan to join them NOR to fight them.
So while there is some positive astro this week, especially Friday, we are yet not inclined to invest in stocks in general.  Rather, we are planning to get an early start on “Sell in May and Go away” end of April OCO a retest of 2008 lows. 

KEY DATES:     APRIL 18
DJIA:                12400 PIVOT S1 12250 S2 12000 S3 11800 R1 12500 R2 12600 R3 12800
SPX:                 1325 PIVOT
NASDAQ:          2300 PIVOT
XAU:                 180 PIVOT 170 SUPORT R1 192 R2 205 R3 215
JUNE GOLD:     925 PIVOT R1 912 R2 900 R3 888 S1 935 S2 945 S3 958
MAY OIL:          110 PIVOT S1 108 S2 106.50 S3 105 S4 102 

New Market Marker Sentiment is:  Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                      2 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. Citigroup is reporting on April 18 premarket on what we forecast astrologically to be a potential major UP day. We have forecast Citigroup ( C ) to be a major UP mover in May and it could begin this week.  However, I think it is too early to make a major investment at this point and this price. However if C drops again under 20 I may start to nibble.  However I still prefer closer to 16-18, as well as later in the month.  I guess I would rather be safe than sorry. 

BUSINESS AND BANQUETS
Last week at the IPPP at the New York SHERATON, I added three companies on our Summer Buy/Watch list: Canadian Natural (CNQ), TXCO Resources (TXCO) and Cano Petroleum CFW). 

3.  Oil Expected to Average $101 in '08. 

“Joe Stanislaw, an independent energy adviser to Deloitte & Touche calculates that the physical realities of supply and demand point to oil price of $50 a barrel. The possibility of supply disruptions due to political strife in Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria might add another $10. Anything above that, he argues, is due to oil's popularity as an investment. “
I agree.  I don’t believe OIL should be more than 8% higher than last summer not due to supply and demand issues but the weak US dollar.  I will not be surprised to see a 2008 retest of $71; In fact I would welcome it. Remember four years ago, Oil fell from late August into early November – no doubt an election coincidence! Will it be different this time? I am fond of quipping that should oil be $130 in November, there may only be 4 republican senators around: 2 from Texas and 2 from Wyoming! :)

Q2 2008 AFUND VALUATIONS
YELLOW GOLD $875  FIRST BUY $858 ~ SILVER FIRST BUY $16

BLACK GOLD    Under $90. FIRST BUY well under $90.  When this happens, we plan to update our March 6 premium subscriber post: S: S: ENERGY (3/06/2008). 

4. "What we see is that first-quarter earnings will likely fall below expectations. The market moves on expected future growth, and if the last quarter was worse than expected, that dampens expectations going forward. This could be a tough reporting season.”
Ken Tower, chief market strategist, Covered Bridge Tactical
HW: So that is why GE fell. 

"The market has pretty much priced in a pretty good portion of the recession scenario. Given that the Fed is doing what it can to pull us out of this, the market is expecting a shallow and short recession, not a deep and extended one."
Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S. equity, Deutsche Bank
HW: While that is the “hope” of many bulls, I don’t agree. 

"The U.S. economy is deteriorating so fast that it's hard to believe economies outside of the U.S. won't get affected."
Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of currency strategy, Citigroup
HW:  Absolutely true! 

5. Surge in Bears May Signal Bull Run 

Recession Investing: Is It Time to Buy? 

Investors could be expecting better times ahead
Dismal economic news is no longer acting as a big depressant on stock prices. A recession seems imminent. Corporate profit growth continues to slow. Yet stocks now go up or trade sideways when bad news strikes.

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