1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. APRIL/MAY: UP OR DOWN?
Until late May the market is extremely dangerous. Still last week, Wall Street Undergoes Big Mood Change, Clear Shift In Sentiment Helps Wall Street Get Past Dour Economic News, But Will It Hold? Before the end of this week, corporate earnings and/or forward guidance should temper such bullishness. It is possible US markets will climb a “Wall of Worry” and rally because the news is “not that bad”. Such markets do not traditionally sport my best performance.  While I don’t expect markets to correct in a straight line down, the risk/reward is not highly favorable for bulls. Hence, we will be positionally short by Midweek. Still I sleep at night and keep access to capital to take advantage of key rallies/crashes.

INVESTORS: Maintain high cash levels and relax! 

KEY DATES:     APRIL 9. 11
DJIA:                12500 PIVOT SUPPORT 12300 RESISTANCE 12680?
SPX:                 1366 PIVOT
NASDAQ:          23800 PIVOT
XAU:                 187 PIVOT
JUNE GOLD:     S1 910  S2 900 S3 880  R1 925 R2 940 R3 950 R4 980
MAY OIL:          105 PIVOT S1 102 S2 100 S3 98 S4 94  R1 108  R2 110  R3 112   

New Market Marker Sentiment is:  Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       1 ~ FV 0 UV; 56 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.

Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. There is nothing we wish to BUY this week. 

3. IS THE COMMODITY CORRECTION OVER?
We believe not; given our view that gold is currently worth $875 and Oil is certainly worth far less than $100. Hence, we are not in a buying mood for precious metals and prefer to sell rather than buy gold most days
We recommended covering major gold shorts at $888 and expect gold will retest the $880 level again this month. 
As for Oil, we are short and will continue to short up to $108.  Our bet is that it will be selling for well under $98 by May. 

4. "The dollar's upside looks heavy. There are fairly established expectations for U.S. economic data to under perform.''
Takuma Kurosawa, global markets treasurer, HSBC Bank
HW: Intermediate term we agree. 

"The real world is we're in a bear market, stocks.are risky as hell, and anyone who believes we're out of the woods is living in a dream world."
Martin Weiss, Director, Weiss Research
HW: You Betcha! 

“The slowing economy will pull profit growth down.''
Kevin Caron, market strategist, Stifel Nicolaus
HW: That IS the bottom line, is it not? 

5. Earnings Estimates Going Down--Time to Sell?
Don’t Discount the future too cheaply. 

Danger lurks in "safe" metals 

Three income trusts for all seasons

A trio of experts give their pick for the one income trust that can maintain or increase its distribution through the challenging environment ahead. 

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