1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. ARE H1 2008 LOWS DOW 11740, NAS 2169 & SPX 1273?

While we understand the bullish case for equities in the absence of major astro indicators, we prefer to be more bearish than bullish and shorter term than long term. As we progress further into the earnings seasons, and surely by the April FOMC meeting, things will be clearer. Until then, CASH is King and my key to a sound night sleep.

ASTRODATES
4/05 New Moon
4/19 Sun enters Taurus
4/20 Full Moon 

 
KEY DATES:     APRIL 2, 4
DJIA:                12250 PIVOT R1 12264 R2 12450 R3 12500
SPX:                 1325 PIVOT
NASDAQ:          2250 PIVOT
XAU:                 180 PIVOT 170 SUPORT R1 192 R2 205 R3 215
JUNE GOLD:     R1 925 R2 900 R3 888 S1 940 S2 980 S3 1025
MAY OIL:          105 PIVOT S1 102 S2 100 S3 98 S4 94 

New Market Marker Sentiment is:  Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                      2 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. BUSINESS AND BANQUETS
At the Future Leaders in the Biotech Industry at the Millennium Hotel, we positively reviewed several personalized medicine companies: DeCODE genetics (DCGN) and currently private ARCA Discovery, which offers genetically, targeted therapies for heart failure. We also added Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP), Virus (VVUS) and Ceregene [private] to our S: Health watch list. 

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) annual shareholder meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York was well presented. I like this Deepwater E&P Company with 85% domestic reserves. I am not sure if I agree that at $8/MCf gas and $80/Bbl oil, it is worth $76 to $79+. This is a bit rich valuation for me.  However, we are likely to recommend APC $55-$58 OB, especially in H2 2008. 

3. "Gold and other metals could fall further as the market has surged too rapidly. But falls in gold could be limited around $850 where demand for physical gold could start growing,"
Hisaaki Tasaka, market analyst, Ace Koeki
HW: My first investing buys begin at $858. I believe only Ben knows where and when my second investing buys will be i.e. higher or lower in Q2 2008, or later in Q3 2008. 

From a long term perspective, relative to gold, most investments remain in a downtrend.  Many analysts including yours truly, believe we are still in a secular bull market for precious metals: “There are many arguments that support this: begin with the sub prime crisis, inflation and high oil prices. Then there's the fear of economic and political instability. Any of these could further erode the dollar's power and take gold higher.” 

Be that as it may, while we believe that today gold is over valuated (Fair value $875), quite a few gold stocks ranging from our favorite (but currently unloved Nova Gold (NG) to quality small caps would be Under Valued even if gold were trading below $800!  We still are forecasting a 50%-100% price increase for these before year end.  Whether they are currently near their 2008 bottom or not, we plan to accumulate more by accumulating on dips over the next few months. 

4. "We believe that while it may not be over yet, a good portion of the downside has already been realized.

Eric Bjorgen, co-portfolio manager, Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

HW: Yes, but  substantial downside risks remain. 

"Pretty much everybody expects a recession. But with most people still forecasting a fairly mild recession, investors are keeping their fingers on the pulse of the economy."
Sam Stovall, senior investment strategist, Standard & Poor's
HW: A mild recession I presume means either your neighbor has lost his job or is not getting a salary increase that keeps up inflation?

"Are we in a dead cat bounce or the end of the market contraction? One of my concerns has not been resolved. Earnings projections remain too high.
Donald Ratajczak, economist, Morgan Keegan
HW: Earning projections ARE too high for most stocks. Perhaps I should report the stock market to the ASPCA?  

5. Money Manager Says No to U.S. Stocks 

Worthless Wall Street Research

HOW TO INVEST ANY MONEY YOU HAVE LEFT OVER
 

6. READER; The US is cheap. There is a wall of liquidity coming. Position accordingly: Buy Dips
HW: We understand this view. However, there are still substantial risks and we believe fresh buys should be
1)       Stock specific more than broad market and
2)      Profits and/or losses dealt with quickly as more dips are possible. 

READER: As you write in your latest WSNW: We should buy gold circa $888 OCO Tuesday.
HW: I did not say BUY GOLD $888 OCO TUESDAY, I said to cover GOLD shorts $888 OCO Tuesday [3/25].  I plan to buy gold cheaper unless Ben lowers US interest rates even more.

READER: As you write in your latest WSNW: We should buy gold circa $888 OCO Tuesday.
HW: I did not say BUY GOLD $888 OCO TUESDAY, I said to cover GOLD shorts $888 OCO Tuesday [3/25].  I plan to buy gold cheaper unless Ben lowers US interest rates even more.

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