2. UP
STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN
OPPORTUNITIES
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
1.THE
QUESTION IS IF It's too early to be bullish?
Until May, we
see the Market Zeitgeist remaining Worry
and HEAVY Recession Fears.
Forecasting a down market late May for
both astrological and seasonal reasons [“Sell in May and go away”) is no
surprise. However, NASDAQ may fall down
well before then. Still, markets have yet to rally more first for me to become
bearish. The short term risk is significant both for bears
and bulls. For another week
or so, I will be more often taking the bullish side of trades, while
thereafter, more often the bearish side.
As for investing, while still short term
bullish, we maintain heavy cash positions and will be market neutral before the
ides of March!
CASH IS TRASH or CASH IS KING?
A
study released last week by Merrill Lynch showed that 41% of 190 money managers
worldwide were over weighted in cash. Indeed, the study, which was conducted
about two weeks ago, found that the managers had more money in cash than they
have had since right after the September 2001 terrorist attacks.
HW:
Smart money!
Pickens
sees oil, natural gas prices falling
“Pickens,
speaking on CNBC television, said he expects the price of oil to fall $10 to
$15 a barrel in the second quarter from the $100 it hit on the
HW: Kudos to T Bones Pickens Astrologer
who apparently believes, as we do, that that the February 20th Lunar Eclipse
will “eclipse” commodity pricing short term!
TRADERS: Given currently Wild Markets, it is not
enough to order more Traders Diapers: Active places should either place a
trading screen in their bathroom or a bathroom in their trading room!
INVESTORS:
While we are investing short term in a rising “Wall of Worry”, my long term
view is well known: focus on protecting against downside risk.
DJIA: 12400
PIVOT
SPX: 1350 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 2300
PIVOT
XAU: 180 PIVOT
APRIL
GOLD: 950 PIVOT R1 963 R2 965 R3 980 S1
940 S2 925 S3 908
APRIL
OIL: 100 PIVOT 102 RESISTANCE S1 96.80 S2 95 S3 93 S4 90
New Market Marker Sentiment is: Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE
LIQUID WITH A
BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE: DJIA
13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE: DJIA
12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE: DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:
2 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+
Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my
question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical
recession?
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST
DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. DOW
CHANGES: BAC, CVX, MO, HON
Technology company HoneyWell,(HON) and Altria (MO),
which makes cigarettes, were replaced this week in the 30-stock index by Bank
of America and Chevron.
We believe both new entrants,
Bank America (BA) and oil giant Chevron (CVX), are good long term investments
and may also out perform in the short run.
WSNW subscribers are
advised to periodically review our premium subscriber post: S: 2008 DOW.
We
have no new opinion of HON and MO, beyond boycotting the later for SRI reasons.
Here is one view: New
York Post
“Honeywell and Altria Group
might want to say thank you to Dow Jones for taking them out of the Dow Jones
industrial average.
According to research recently
published in the Journal of Wealth Management, stocks that are removed from the
Dow record average annual returns of 15.9 percent over 250 trading days
compared with 11.5 percent for stocks that replaced them in the index.
And in 32 of the 50 cases
studied, the deleted stocks outperformed the ones that were added to the Dow
for five years after the change.
"There is no sure thing in
the stock market, but out-of-favor stocks, like those dropped from the Dow,
generally outperform whatever happens to be popular at the moment," said
economics professor Gary Smith of Pomona College in Claremont, Calif, who
conducted the study.”
While H1 is about
financial news, H2 2008 investing is will be influenced substantially about the
ANALYSIS-Medtech firms see benefit from
Democratic plans.
3. Gold miners report solid earnings
2/21 LUNAR ECLIPSE
WSNW Alert:
“As of
today with gold at 950, silver 18 and oil 100:
We are
short oil to $88 OCO midmarch now with gold we are short term bearish,
intermediate term neutral (reached our P1 target of 950 and 18, and while
963/64 and $980 as well as $102 and $105 oil and $20 silver is possible),
we think a test of $900 is coming next thanks to last night’s Lunar Eclipse.
We are
still long term very bullish and this applies to physical gold and silver, not
to select gold and silver companies!”
WE
ARE NOW SHORT TERM BEARISH, INTERMEDIATE TERM NEUTRAL AND LONG TERM STILL VERY
BULLISH.
Again while we recommended taking profits on physical gold and silver, our view
does not extend to many silver stocks
and gold stocks, some of which are trading near value or undervalued.
Can anyone deny this inflationary?
Oscar's Cost Jump as Record Gold Drives
Up Hollywood Glitz
4. ASTRONUT
US
inflation Jump Poses Fed Dilemma
HW: While some will
cry “inflation” when the price for a 1-ounce first-class stamp rises to 42
cents on May 12, will the FED? Will they
not think: “the 1 cent raise will
not affect Forever Stamps, created in April 2007 as a stamp that could always
be used no matter how much the price rises” Hence NO inflation! Postmaster
General John Potter. "We encourage Americans to buy Forever Stamps now for
41 cents, because like the name suggests, they are good forever."
More good news on the inflation front: The Chinese are FIGHTING
BACK!
“Chinese steelmakers,
the world's largest buyers of iron ore, will reject Rio Tinto Group's demand
for a minimum 71% price increase in the raw material, two people familiar with
the negotiations said.
The mills will only accept a 65% price gain
for ore from London-based Rio's mines in
HW: Italics mine.
5. "It's a tough
time in terms of dealing with the volatility and all the other things beyond
our control. It reminds me of 1990 and
1998 when we saw [stock-price] spreads blowing up based on immense fear. It’s
all part of the market trying to find a bottom, but meanwhile we still have to
focus on finding good companies.”
Anthony Weber, manager, Aston/Veredus Select Growth Fund
HW: Without Ben’s interference, markets would have already
bottomed. But given our free market is not “free” to act, it will take a lot
more time than otherwise needed.
“There comes a point where fundamentals can no longer be
ignored. You can't justify $100 oil when inventories are up six weeks, demand
is weak and the economy is slowing."
Michael Fitzpatrick,
vice president for energy risk management, MF Global
HW: And that often is
best timed by astrology in this case the February Total Lunar Eclipses.
"With housing numbers coming out, it's not a good thing in
this market, given that they always seem to disappoint. Data just keeps
pointing to the economy slowing. I think the market has to adjust expectations
about earnings. They're definitely still too high and need to come down."
Owen Fitzpatrick,
U.S. Equity Group head, Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management
HW: Yes they will adjust by/before the April
reporting period.
6. Dow
ETF looks like diamond in the rough
Blue
chips that can ride out a recession
In
India, Dow Jones Meets Dharma
7. READER; I bet you a lunch in NYC that gold hits
1000 before it hits 900.
HW: It’s a bet!
READER: Harry Schultz is running for the hills
HW: I do believe traditional conservatism is
called for. That was 10% gold, not 35-45%.
However, I also like other traditional inflation hedges such as
farmland.
Bottom line:
Given I was a boy scout, I do believe in being prepared. However, I believe
there may be more reason to be concerned about 2010-2012, than 2008 to 2010.
READER: A bad market? You ain't seen nothin' This is an excellent commentator, high
emotionally intelligence.
HW: I know his work and usually agree with it.
"Can you afford NOT
to have financial
astrology in YOUR future?"
Stop reading Wall Street, Next Week, last week: YES, I WANT TO
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