1. FEBRUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1.
CHINESE
NEW YEAR 2008
“CHINESE NEW YEAR2008 is a Yang Earth year, with the Water
element underneath. The dominating element is therefore Water. So it's going to
be a time of cooling down after the active economic years of 2006 and 2007.
Fire is the symbol of financial markets and strong Fire stimulates optimism and
speculation. There is no Fire this year and without Fire the market turns
conservative.
The strong Water element encourages some movement for the
Earth industries which are property, insurance, mining, hotels, engineering,
health and the chemical industry. With strong Water showing up, the property
market can be active, but only in Earth-ruled countries. Investors this year
will, however, be more cautious and more practical; there will be a cooling
down, with more stability in stock markets.
With little or no Fire, the Fire industries – finance, the
stock market, energy, electricity, entertainment, and airline businesses – will
definitely not advance this year. Home and property values will have some
support, but with Water underneath, it may be that natural water disasters
strongly influence the property market. The solution would be not to buy or invest
near seafronts, rivers, large water bodies, or on flood-prone land.“
LAST WEEK: U.S.
Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Gain in Five Years
THIS WEEK: WE PLAN TO STAY LONG
THE
Unless February 5, the new Market Marker Day is very positive, we plan
to become more market neutral thereafter.
If February 5th is UP or very UP, then markets may continue
to climb the proverbial Wall of Worry.
GUEST
In America, the land of bubbles, the
next pop will be the biggest
TRADERS: I couldn’t sleep being
net short this coming week: - How weird! Thankfully, Friday Feb. 8th,
OCO Dow 13264 we switch to market neutral.
Study market movement carefully February 5.
INVESTORS: My long term view is well known:
focus on protecting against downside risk.
KEY
DATES: February 5, 6
DJIA: 12500
PIVOT R1 12800 R2 13000 R3 13264 R4 13500
SPX: 1380 PIVOT R1 1400 R2 1425 R3
1440
NASDAQ: 2400
PIVOT
XAU: 185 PIVOT S1 178 S2 175 S3 170
S4 160
APRIL
GOLD: 900 PIVOT S1 895 S2 888 S3 875 S4
850 940 RESISTANCE
MAR
OIL: 90 PIVOT S1 88 S2 86 S3 85
S4 80
Market Marker Sentiment changes February 5th.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED
AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE: DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE: DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE: DJIA
10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA: 2 ~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends
1 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is
whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?
THINK SWISS AND
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. Agriculture
is the best place to invest
HW: Many analysts
recommend Potash (POT) and Bunge (BG). In my opinion, both are good companies and pricey, but
worth buying when more reasonably priced.
3. “You can see why commodities would hold up in this kind of
environment that we are in. People want tangible assets.”
Kevin Lilley, comanager,
Royal London Asset Management
READER: More and more experts see
gold at 1500$ to 2000$ next 24 months.
This
weekend I read some articles stating gold could top Jan 31, as Mars will direct
Jan 30. (in 1980 this occurred at top too) Other see a top more likely late
Feb/ March or even May as we have Jupiter square Uranus on 5/21/08.
I think we should
see at least 1000/1050 before topping. Of course if we reach 970/980 this week,
this could be the top.
PS Would appreciate your opinion on this.
HW:
While anything is possible in a manic market, our
previous long term target was $800 OCO 2008. It is now $1200 OCO 2011. We
agree $1000 gold is likely this year, but we see it in December gold.
Earlier than that, we see overhead resistance at $940, $950 and $965. We
are currently reducing and hedging our positions in physical gold. Given the
XAU/gold ratio of 5.01, we prefer to own gold and silver shares to gold and
silver. We also believe Oil will drop to $80 before the end of February
and this will slow gold's rise. In addition to the astro you mention, over
the next couple of days, gold is likely to drop below $900. In any case, we are bullish on
the share market next week and prefer to buy the stock market and selective undervalued small
and microcap gold shares.
P.S.
Additionally, on a fundamental basis, we consider gold
currently overvalued.
PPS. However a number of small cap
gold stocks, including ALL of the presenters at our recent Triple Gold Conference,
are potential long term buys with P1 target of 50%-100%+ appreciation by year
end.
READER: where would you buy [gold] again?
HW: I don’t like to pay more than
something is worth. I am not a momentum guy, but a Cosmic Value Investor and
prefer to buy UNDER valued market instruments which gold at $940 is not (yet).
Our next trading buy is under $874 OCO 2/10. On Friday, we day traded long
markets and short the metal complex (gold, silver, copper).
Q1 2008 Gold FV $895 = Commodity: 772 + Currency: 880
+ Inflation Metal: $930 + Crisis FV: $1000
Given our [short term] bearish views of the metals complex,
we recommended shorts on Gold, Silver and Copper Friday. To my mind, all are currently overpriced .
Also, astrologically, I see NO reason to be a buyer this week.
4. "This isn't the time to go into the market. We'll
still see a lot of volatility."
William de Vijlder, chief investment officer, Fortis Investment
Management
HW: I would fire your astrologer. It was the PERFECT time to
enter into markets.
“The market is just in a holding pattern. It seems we've hit a
short-term bottom, and the market has been stabilizing as we wait to hear what
the Fed says."
Todd Leone, managing director of equity trading, Cowen
HW: Yes, next week is almost all go team go!
“There was panic in
the market towards the end of the year and a lot of them [Financial shares]
went down far too much. There will be a
turn, and this is probably a major opportunity in financials, probably one of
the best in the last 15 years.''
David Dreman,
manager, Dreman Value Management
HW: Yes, although by
the end of next week, we will sell some more and use trailing stops on all our
fast trading profits in shares like Citibank [C]. The fat lady has yet to sing (lawsuits plus
more likely bad news coming) in the financial industry.
5. Why office real estate is headed
lower
Commentary:
REIT prices prove to be a good predictor
“Why office real estate is headed lower REITs in general already
are trading at 14% below their underlying asset values. Office REITs are
trading at an 18% discount....In the end, either REITs are too cheap or real
estate is too expensive. History isn't on real estate's side."
Why We Need A Crash Now
A crash may be the best and quickest way to purge
the market of numerous excesses that are holding it back.
Japan's Long-Awaited Inflation
Erodes Household Spending, Economic Growth
6. Great call
HW!
HW: thank you.
Feel like a
broken record. But once again: GREAT CALL.
My question,
yesterdays action. A sharp bounce in a "bear" or "bottom"
in a continuing "bull."
HW: I believe
this is a bear market rally, but need confirmation on February 5th before I put my money where my mouth is.
READER; Thanks for sending E-mail updates ,they gives a very nice picture
of the market. The market seemed to have made a V turn. QQQQ should go to
47-48.Any idea how long time it will take?
HW: I would be
exiting well before the idea of March!
READER: U should
be buying the Ultras double QQQQ return.
HW: We don’t
give our readers the instruments to buy, but the sectors to buy and the time to
buy it. We gave THE bottom and used the
QQQQ as a timing signal. Whether you bought QQQQ, Utltras, specific NASDAQ
stocks (YHOO for example), all WSNW should be making lots of money just now. I
believe what YOU buy should depend on YOUR
knowledge of markets and what stocks, ETFs etc that you track.
"Can you afford NOT
to have financial
astrology in YOUR future?"
Stop reading Wall Street, Next Week, last week: YES, I WANT TO
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