1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

ARE WE THERE YET?
IF DOW 13000/SPX 1450 is not strong support, then the next test will be our 1435 SPX/ DOW 12865 intermediate term trading target.  However it is POSSIBLE that markets COULD drop all the way to their 2006 close of Dow 12463, SPX 1418 and Nas 2415.

I see no reason to rush and buy markets.  Yet,, we ARE getting close in Time and Price to a potential first accumulation buy. But it is fraught with risk and it more serves traders than buy and hold investors.
Note: We expect any Christmas rally to start around the November 24 Full Moon OCO December 11, but this will surely NOT be risk free by any means. Still, by November 28/29, if you wish to BEGIN to bargain hunt do so.

Personally, unless we see a good test of  Dow 12000, I am not ready to commit fully our sleep-soundly-at-night funds.  

 
KEY DATES:     NOVEMBER 19
DJIA:                13000 PIVOT
SPX:                 1455 PIVOT 1450 S2  1435 S2 1420 S3
NASDAQ:         2600 SUPPORT? 2580 SUPPORT?
XAU:                 182 SUPPORT
DEC GOLD:      825 PIVOT 840 R1 850 R2 875 R3 

Market Marker Sentiment is:  TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY STILL- The only sane response is to own gold
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       0 ~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. As for buying, one can begin to think about 2008 portfolios or one can think about trading for any Seasonal Christmas Rally.  The former includes the Health and Education sectors, while the latter is too soon except perhaps for financials. These, however, have to be watched daily and exited well before January. See BANKS' BALANCE SHEETS WILL HIT FAN IN JANUARY  [Our MAJOR Citibank (C ) buy and hold is spring 2008. etc.]  

As for portfolio rotation, we believe in seriously reducing energy sector exposure well before December 5, the next scheduled OPEC meeting. 

3. The news on Nova Gold (ABX) was excellent. Conservatively this adds at least $3 to NG share value.  We maintain our $22-$25 2007 year end price target and we may revise this upwards depends on whether and how much gold markets rally circa November 19.

• Short term there is risk to dollar shorts.
• Intermediate term there is risk to Oil longs.
• Additionally, $800 has yet to establish itself as a serious gold market floor.

We expect a potential gold rally on the 19^th, but this will be protected with trailing profit stops. Long Term gold investors need do nothing.  Traders need to be on daily alert. 

4. "This might become a weekly occurrence, getting rid of a Wall Street CEO."
James Ellman, president, Seacliff Capital
HW: A good idea.

"This gold market is up, up and away. The dollar is going to keep skidding. We don't know if it's going to be a recession, inflation, stagflation. People want to buy gold."

Ron Goodis, futures trading director, Equidex Brokerage Group

HW: Yes. Gold is THE answer.

“Every day it's a new bank that comes out with a write- off.  If the credit markets dry up and the economy starts to slow, that's going to transfer over to consumer spending and business spending.''

Jeremy Blackman, research analyst, Hester Capital

HW: Until the January financial stocks earnings are “built in”, there is a high risk to almost all market longs. 

5. Ten Steady Stocks For A Shaky Market 

Ten investing ideas for the next 12 months 

A New Way to Get In On Small Foreign Stocks

6. READER: I am up almost 50% on your NG call.  Do you think this one still has room to go or is it time to pull it off the table?  If gold goes to $1050 an ounce like some expect is NG worth hanging onto at this point.  Your calls have been right on, just wondering what you expect here going forward for this one.  Appreciate your thoughts. 
HW: Nova is still undervalued compared to its peers.  I think after November 15 it will be higher given the court outcome we are expecting. Much depends on what else you own and your own view on gold.
PS Given its 11/08 announcement which conservatively adds at least $3 valuation to NG stock, I would say NG is not only a buy and hold investment but a trading  buy on dips to 19. 

READER: Which investment vehicle do you prefer for investing in the Yuan?
HW: This is not something we are currently playing, although there seems to be a one way bet with good valuation.

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