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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JULY 25, 2005
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN THOUGHTS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
8. AFUND CLIENTS
1. A TALE OF TWO CITIES: EBAY, IBM, GE VS. C, GM, MSFT
Better future earnings and their sustainability are needed to maintain
current stock prices. If others are correct in believing that most
corporate earnings are good enough and will continue to be so, one can
remain blissfully long. Personally, I cannot believe that. I see
some “reality reporting” of inflation, quality of job
growth, as well as terrorism fears more mainstream. In other words, SOONER OR LATER, 2 + 2 = 4.
While markets did reach our first Summer trading targets early this
month, they did not “behave” as I expected after the 7/7
London bombings. They remind me of when we were massively short
just ahead of the Long Term Capital Management crisis. But
leaving conspiracy musing aside, this latest rally is just not
fundamentally or technically justified. Basically, it did not
start from a solid bottom formation but as a snap back from terrorism.
Markets have a toppy “feel”. Nasdaq is near strong
resistance at 2200, especially with leaders GOOG and MSFT
disappointing. Short term, I would prefer to bet on 2100, ahead
of 2300. I like position shorting around DOW 10640. I also don’t
see much intermediate upside risk against me in SPX, i.e. under 3%.
The major “reason” for markets to rally, besides good
earnings, is the FED pausing, or signaling that is it is ready to
pause, on interest rate increase. But that would help markets ONLY
short term as the US dollar would fall further on the news, increasing
inflation pressures. The FED is in a pickle of its own
making. It is only a question of WHEN, not IF, US investors will
cease to believe that the US remains in goldilocks mode.
TRADERS: We are on WSNW Alert Sell 11D.
Thanks to the Chinese and Cosmos, the US Dollar is losing both
terrestrial and astrological support. How long before Nasdaq nuts will
be crying in their beer, assuming they are not heavily margined and can
still afford it! Given the strong cash positions of some rabid
bulls, we intend to remain nimble traders. If need be, we will be
stopped out and reshort again at appropriate astrological times and
technical price points.
INVESTORS: Unless you like to stay at parties until the very end, you should be raising cash levels.
My long term view is well known: focus on protecting against downside risk through most of the rest of 2005, and 2006 will be bleak. Finally, Make sure you own Summer Gold.
KEYDATES: August 3
DJIA: 10650 PIVOT
SPX:
1235 R1 1240 R2 1250
R3
NASDAQ: 2200 RESISTANCE
XAU:
93 PIVOT 94 R1 95 R2 98 R3 100 R4
105 113 R5
US$: DISTRIBUTE/SELL
TIPS: ACCUMULATE
New Market Marker Sentiment coming early August.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2004 CLOSE: DJIA 10784, SPX 1211 & NASDAQ 2175
DIJA: 2 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology is mixed, the external risk
potential is high. Looking ahead, my question is whether 2006 will show
less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
Before H2 2006, reduce indebtedness as much as possible, as quickly as possible.
2. Alternative Energy
Whether Oil is $35 or $75 next year, investments in the global
alternative-energy industry, including solar and wind power. is
expected to grow from $20 billion a year to $100 billion over the next
10 years, according to the International Energy Agency. Many SRI
stocks in this sector have appreciated as much, if not more than their
Oil sector equivalents. Accordingly, we will be looking to
accumulate more stocks in this sector after significant pullbacks.
To portfolio hedge a bull market, or conservatively play oil and gas,
we continue to recommend Canadian Income Trusts, which provide hefty
dividend yields above 11%. Two current favorites are Enerplus
Resources Trust (ERF) and Prime West (PWI). Being based in Canadian
dollars, I expect a currency kicker of another 2%-5% ROI before the end
of the year.
3. China Gives Green Light to Gold
China’s re-evaluation of the YUAN under last week’s FULL
Moon is widely considered to be the beginning of another positive leg
up move for Gold. We can almost taste some of our August gold forecast!
The Process of Elimination: A Speculation on Gold and the Credit Cycle
“Capital flows into gold under one scenario only: when the lack
of investment returns elsewhere, the desire for safety, and the
ascendance of a risk-averse psychology at large converge. In other
words, investors come to gold through a process of elimination. It is
an odyssey of discovery and realization that investment vehicles
thought to be potentially rewarding are in fact filled with hazard and
adversity.”
Beginning October 17, we will be cosponsoring with Arch Investment Conferences
our first “AFUND Triple Gold” Conference at Le Parker
Meridien Hotel in New York. We plan to present quarterly until
2008, or when gold is $800, whichever comes first. While invitation
only events for fund managers, investment bankers, brokers and other
financial professionals, they will also be openly web cast. To
receive a free invitation, visit Arch Investment Conferences Invitation List.
4. SWAZILAND's King Mswati III has enraged his people by failing to pay
ilobolo for his estranged wife, Inkhosikati Putsoana Hoala. The fifth
of the king's 12 wives, they married in 1987 when she was 15. She then
left school to marry the king. "His Majesty will appreciate my
education skills are extremely limited," she says. The news that
the king had neglected to pay lobolo to her family was naturally met
with shock and outrage as Swazi men are strictly bound by tradition to
pay ilobolo, usually in the form of cattle or cash, to the families of
their brides. Mswati's prime minister Jim Gama declined comment.
"He has disgraced the Swazis," said Celiwe Matsebula of Mbabane.
"Swazis pay ilobolo to their wives, and this includes the king. But
Nomsa Mabena, of Nhlangano said the King could not be judged. "You
can't judge the king. He can do as he pleases."
Our take on the matter: As more and more resource addicted western
companies look to Africa, remember to choose your company investments
AND country very carefully.
5. "In the first part of the week, we're likely to have some
consolidation or profit-taking after the strong move we've had since
the April bottom,"
Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC.
HW: I’ll drink (bet) to that.
“You're going to see earnings meet or beat expectations. The economy is really strong.''
Jason Graybill, comanager, Abner, Herrman & Brock
HW: Too bad. As with inflation statistic reporting, the emperor has no
clothes. Still until later in 2006, it is POSSIBLE this fairy tale will
be believed by enough people to keep markets above water.
"The dollar rallied when it wasn't supposed to. That was a bit of a surprise."
Russel Kinnel, mutual fund research director, Morningstar.
HW: I disagree. The US dollar was supposed to rally April, May and
June. A rally beyond this summer is NOT expected, astrologically
speaking, and that would be a bit of a surprise.
6. Feds Are Just Like Bernie
'The Labor Department said — presumably without a single
bureaucrat snickering — that consumer prices didn't budge in
June. And that followed a decline — yep, I said a decline —
of 0.1 percent in May. Hold your noses because those numbers just don't
pass the smell test... the American Auto Association calculates that
gasoline prices have risen 21.5 percent since this same time last year.
But the government swears gas prices are only 6.9 percent higher over
the year"
CASUALTY OF WAR: THE U.S. ECONOMY
HW: This analysis does NOT include the longer terms costs such as the
Veterans Administration, which make the total spending far greater than
simply $764 Billion.
Gold price could triple by 2015 as resources dwindle
HW: Why not a double by 2008?
7. READER: Just re-reading your last couple of e-mail letters. I am
largely in cash, but thinking about getting into the market (TSX Index
and resources) again. This is usually a bad sign. I seem to have a
knack of getting in just before a top. Are you still high on Canada?
HW: YES both intermediate and long term. Nothing wrong with
adding more gold stocks and energy income trusts (although oil markets
could be toppy short term).
READER: When will TNXT bottom out? It has been a disaster so far.
HW: Yes. Looking at their chart, August is a, and perhaps THE, key potential reversal time.
8. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: I hope you have a low average [on IHITF].
HW: I agree, it would be wise to augment a lower cost stock base. IHI
always progresses, albeit at always a far slower pace than my
forecasts. As it often the case, microcap investors often make
the most money very early in the game, but also very late in the game,
just before things finally jell. Right now I am enjoying the tape.
“Your source for outstanding
21st century small and microcap stock
ideas"
“Buy small, Win BIG!”
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PAST WALL STREET NEXT WEEK REPORTS
FRIDAY
11 am listen to our Internet radio program TRADING BY THE
STARS.
(c)
2005 All rights reserved. The Astrologers Fund
"Always a Stellar Performance"
wsnw@Afund.com 212/949-7211 Fax 212/949-7274 370
Lexington Avenue, Suite 416 New York, N.Y. 10017-6503
Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF
ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purposes only. PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR
PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.
INVESTORS ARE REMINDED TO PERFORM
THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. ALWAYS
INDEPENDENTLY INVESTIGATE AND FULLY UNDERSTAND ALL RISK BEFORE MAKING
ANY
INVESTMENT.
The Astrologers Fund Inc. Accepts No Liability
Whatsoever For Any Loss Arising
From Any Use Of Its Report Or It's Contents. The
Astrologers Fund Inc. Or Its Clients Usually Holds Positions In
The Stocks and/or Market Instruments Mentioned And May Buy Or Sell
At Any Time Without Notice depending on market conditions and
personal financial conditions. This Information is
In
No Way A Representation To Buy Or Sell Securities, Bonds,
Options Or Futures. This information is not intended to be
used as the sole basis of any investment decisions,
nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the
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ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR LICENSED FINANCIAL PLANNER OR
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IHI has been an AFUND
client since 1994 and is currently paying monthly $2,500 consulting
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affiliated company, Susan Hahn & Associates became IHI’s
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representative with a monthly fee of
$1500.
Please read our Disclaimer
for more information and note that my clients and I are shareholders
and may act in the open market.
In January
2005, TNXT became a client of
Henry
Weingarten as well as a client of a related entity THE SEASONED
SPECULATOR. The
initial contract was for 3 months for $10,500 with Target Publishing,
Inc for a
variety of investor and brokerage awareness services. Later 50,000
shares of
TNXT were added to the contract for additional consulting services
April and May 2005 an additional $3500 fee was paid.
SFNM became a
client of Henry Weingarten and Susan Hahn & Associates on March 17,
2005 and will be paying $3500 monthly [except July and August 2005]
plus 100,000 restricted shares to
be issued over a period of one year.
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