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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JULY 18, 2005
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN THOUGHTS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
8. AFUND CLIENTS
JULY 18-22, 2005 IS A KEY PIVOT WEEK
Whether the ides of July have set an intermediate term market top (Dow
10640), markets players will wait until Alan chirps at least until
Wednesday, and perhaps until earning seasons is over, before taking the
Summer off. Thereafter, Whither
Equities: "The direction of the economy—and corporate
profits—has rarely been so disputed. Is the “soft
patch” history, or are we teetering on the edge of the abyss?"
EARNING SEASONS QUALITY AND FORECASTS
How different things are from last week. Bearish shorts, both
seasonally and news oriented (London Bombings, record high Oil prices)
were squeezed mercilessly. The put/call ratio has now adjusted to
a market peaking zone.
UNLESS OIL DROPS BELOW $55, ONLY THE BRAIN DEAD CAN THINK IT WILL NOT
SERIOUSLY AFFECT WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH. Without more substantial good
news ala GE and Apple, markets will Summer meander at best, or slowly
deflate, if reason and logic come to the fore. On the other hand,
why would that happen just now?
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: INFLATION FAIRY
TALES
All I can say is that I invite everyone that believes the CPI and PPI
is really 0% to buy into my new offering: The Brooklyn Bridge
REIT. Those of you that are waiting to first cash out of the
Shangri-La fund, may only have a short wait: Next
for GM – Buy one, Get one Free? Perhaps, I am wrong and
it is REALLY different this time: the US government can no longer
measure inflation and job growth properly? I will not, however, believe
the unbelievable. Neither should you.
TRADERS: We recommended our
final gold accumulation Friday.
We are currently cautiously short on
WSNW Alert Sell 11D. Given recent market action and the strong cash
positions of some rabid bulls, we intend to remain nimble traders. If
need be, we will be stopped out and reshort again at appropriate
astrological times and technical price points.
INVESTORS: My long term view is well
known: focus on protecting against downside risk through most of the
rest of 2005, and 2006 will be bleak.
Finally, Make sure you own
Summer Gold.
KEYDATES: July 18, 20, 21, 22
DJIA:
10600 PIVOT R1 10640 R2 10700 R3 10784
SPX:
1225 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 2175 RESISTANCE
XAU:
88 PIVOT 92 R1 95 R2 98 R3
US$:
DISTRIBUTE/SELL
Market Marker Sentiment: First Bullish, then Bearish.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO!
2004 CLOSE: DJIA 10784, SPX 1211
& NASDAQ 2175
DIJA: 2 ~
FV 0 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology is mixed, the external risk
potential is high. Looking ahead, my question is whether 2006 will show
less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING
AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
Before H2 2006, reduce indebtedness as
much as possible, as quickly as possible.
2. GE earnings certainly didn’t disappoint. However, given
its relatively rich valuation, it has been slightly under performing
the broad market. I expect this to continue.
We are now projecting the top Dow giant, Exxon Mobil [XOM] to soon
begin to under perform. The reason is both fundamental and
astrological. Another reason is the new ExxposeExxon Boycott Campaign
launch by 12 environmental and public interest.
Our Q3 Dow forecast was for a high of 10640, which is EXACTLY where it
closed Friday. Should markets move substantially higher, we will
naturally revise our WSNW subscriber premium S: Dow post.
3. Until very recently, I have had little interest in Silver. Perhaps
it is because I am a Leo, the sign that traditionally rules gold.
Perhaps it because in the US, Silver has been largely considered a
second class citizen: “gold’s poor cousin” or
“poor man’s gold.” Perhaps it is because
until recently there have been very few pure silver plays and they have
been even less profitable than gold companies. But my views have
been slowly changing. I don’t know if it because Saturn has
just left the Sign of Cancer (which rules Silver) or the after effects
of attending a number of silver company presentations (SLW, SSSI, WTZ,
SVM-TSX) and my resistance is just wearing down.
The
Silver Market- Tips for the Prudent Investor
A classic precious metal like gold, silver was also used in coinage and
utensils. These days, it is used more for jewelry and in the industrial
sector, e.g. electronics and photography. Many of the same
arguments that are made for gold, can be made for silver. Demand is
healthy and increasing. Additionally, Silver is consumed more than
gold, which is mostly held for investment and jewelry. Also, unlike
Gold, Silver is not a “political” metal. Plus most world
government stockpiles are largely exhausted.
The three major positives intermediate term are:
1) Saturn having left Cancer.
2) The remaining barriers on gold and silver imports in India will be
removed for individuals and small jewelers and
3) Barclays Global Investors is planning on marketing the iShares
Silver Trust, the first ETF fund that tracks the price of silver.
Three negatives for Silver investing are:
1) Under current US tax law; long-term capital gains on silver are
taxed at the maximum rate of 28% because silver is considered a
collectible.
2) Most Silver production is a by-product of other metal mining- hence
most supply is less demand price sensitive.
3) Silver Prices are notoriously volatile.
SILVER vs. GOLD
Silver is to Gold much like NASDAQ is to the SPX. It is smaller
capitalized market so if you crave volatility, Silver’s for
you! Silver is more an Indian story than a Chinese one (Gold).
Currently the Gold-Silver ratio is about 60-1, well below is long term
historic ratio of 16-1.The China investment story is better known than
the Indian one. Perhaps after the Bear Stearns India Conference
2005 next month, I will be talking more about India as well as
Silver! :)
Bottom line: It may be as true for Silver as it is for Gold. There is
no real justification for its current low price.
If you wish to own Silver, I would suggest in a 1-16 ratio of gold
holdings, i.e. ~1% of your portfolio vs. 16% for gold.
Note: Warren Buffet’s purchase of 130 Million Silver ounces in
1997 for Berkshire Hathaway was just a little less than 1% of the
portfolio of his holding company at the time. For more, visit the
Silver Institute.
4. "Canadians are well known for their obsessions: hockey,
curling, and beer, to name a few. But are Canadians also obsessed with
vibrators? According to the 2004 Durex Global Sex Survey, the answer is
a resounding yes: 39% of Canadians, both male and female, report
already owning a vibrator. The ownership rate throughout the rest of
the world is 27%." WSNW subscribers interested in participating
in the 2005 Global Sex Survey should note that Durex(R) is
pledging to donate five condoms per respondent! As an added bonus, all
respondents will be entered into a free prize drawing for a luxury
vacation to South Africa including five days on a game reserve in
Kruger and five nights accommodations in Cape Town. The second place
winner will receive a flat screen TV.
What is the stock market translation of the above?
1) We maintain a strong buy on resource rich Canada into H1 2006.
2) Given our Rand view, we are likely to take a more active interest in
South African companies later this year, and
3) We will maintain a hold weight on “old” line Asian TV
manufacturers.
5: “There isn't a lot of bad news out there.''
Brian Williamson, a trader, Boston Co. Asset Management
HW: Not if you believe there is no inflation and that $55+ oil is
cheap. Given last week’s market action, I am thinking of
reselling shares in my dormant Brooklyn Bridge REIT.
"Economic data looks OK and now it's on to earnings season, and we
think it could deliver an upside surprise to the market. I think one of
our key themes here is looking at companies which have strong
international exposure . . . these are wonderful growth opportunities."
Tobias Crabtree, portfolio manager, Leeb Capital Management
HW: I agree that India and China will be growing faster than US
markets. Of course, there is also more downside risk in 2006 as well.
"The world is not as safe as we thought, and in such an environment, it
is good to have gold in your portfolio.''
Frederic Panizzutti, senior vice president, MKS Finance
HW: No matter what your thoughts on safety are, having gold portfolio
is good.
6. It's
December. Do You Know Where Your Dow Is?
Big
Stocks burdened by Problem That Won't Go Away
Small stocks are at it again. They have led the recent market rally,
defying all the smart- money wisdom that said big stocks were overdue
for a revival. This begins to look like a chronic thing.
Former
Wall Street Whiz Kid Says Gold Equals Insurance
7. READER: Henry, I think, hope gold will recover next week after the
shorts clean up today on EXP FRI. Or is this bearish trend to continue
below 415?
HW: Saturn going into Leo tomorrow.
No need to worry unless the trend continues past
Tuesday/Wednesday. We would be buying again for the last time-
now. After Tuesday/Wednesday, we become more technical and less time
oriented short term in the gold market.
READER: Aug Gold: Looks to have traced out 5 full waves into its
418.20 low. If so, there should be a recovery bounce that targets
resistance at 421, 424 and 427 as minimum retracements, with more
upside possible. 418 can be used as an initial stop if venturing
longs.
HW: I agree for astrological timing reasons- Saturn going into Leo
tomorrow
READER: I'm curious if you've taken into account any effect the
upcoming Mercury retrograde in Leo has (if any) on the price of gold in
the heart of this summer.
HW: No, I have not considered it so far. It might be worth watching,
especially the time of its going forward on August 15 to the August
Full Moon on the 19th.
READER: Do you think TNXT.PK has found a support level at $0.025?
Is it a Buy at this level?
HW: It is as much a buy here, or at .01, as it was at .04 when I
recommended it last as a highly speculative “E” play.
If the company survives, you will do very well. If it does not,
you will lose it all.
READER: [GOOG} Above $300. It never went below its original
trading price.
HW: This is not 2006. Have some patience. Anyway we are currently short
from 306 (WSNW Alert Sell 11D), but if stopped out then will try again
higher up until the inevitable reality strikes.
8. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: When are you giving us an update on IHI? You seem ominously
silent on that one. Is it all over for IHI? The annual report suggests
that they probably are not going to last the current year.
HW: I am now waiting until August until after Roger returns from his
current European and Middle East visit, to see if I need to incorporate
any new and material changes. There is more than enough good news
out there, with the Hi-Rise projects and others, to NOT be concerned
with fearing the worst. In fact, if you have been following the tape,
you can see the obvious, and I believe smart, accumulation that is
currently happening.
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PAST WALL STREET NEXT WEEK REPORTS
FRIDAY
11 am listen to our Internet radio program TRADING BY THE
STARS.
(c)
2005 All rights reserved. The Astrologers Fund
"Always a Stellar Performance"
wsnw@Afund.com 212/949-7211 Fax 212/949-7274 370
Lexington Avenue, Suite 416 New York, N.Y. 10017-6503
Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF
ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purposes only. PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR
PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.
INVESTORS ARE REMINDED TO PERFORM
THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. ALWAYS
INDEPENDENTLY INVESTIGATE AND FULLY UNDERSTAND ALL RISK BEFORE MAKING
ANY
INVESTMENT.
The Astrologers Fund Inc. Accepts No Liability
Whatsoever For Any Loss Arising
From Any Use Of Its Report Or It's Contents. The
Astrologers Fund Inc. Or Its Clients Usually Holds Positions In
The Stocks and/or Market Instruments Mentioned And May Buy Or Sell
At Any Time Without Notice depending on market conditions and
personal financial conditions. This Information is
In
No Way A Representation To Buy Or Sell Securities, Bonds,
Options Or Futures. This information is not intended to be
used as the sole basis of any investment decisions,
nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the
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ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR LICENSED FINANCIAL PLANNER OR
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IHI has been an AFUND
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Please read our Disclaimer
for more information and note that my clients and I are shareholders
and may act in the open market.
In January
2005, TNXT became a client of
Henry
Weingarten as well as a client of a related entity THE SEASONED
SPECULATOR. The
initial contract was for 3 months for $10,500 with Target Publishing,
Inc for a
variety of investor and brokerage awareness services. Later 50,000
shares of
TNXT were added to the contract for additional consulting services
April and May 2005 an additional $3500 fee was paid.
SFNM became a
client of Henry Weingarten and Susan Hahn & Associates on March 17,
2005 and will be paying $3500 monthly [except July and August 2005]
plus 100,000 restricted shares to
be issued over a period of one year.
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