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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JULY 4, 2005
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JULY ASTRODATES
2. JULY MARKETS
3. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
4. GOLDEN THOUGHTS
5. ASTRONUT
6. QUOTES
7. ON THE WEB
8. LETTERS
9. AFUND CLIENTS
1. July 6 New Moon 8:02am ET
July 21 Full Moon 7:00 am ET
July 16 Saturn enters Leo
July 22 Sun enters Leo 1:41pm and Mercury SR
2. 3 ½% or 4%?
If the FED raises rates by a quarter-point at its four remaining 2005
meetings, we would see 4.25% by the end of this year. Many
analysts, including yours truly, believe that there will be a pause in
the Fed's campaign after August’s rate hike: Central bank policy
makers next meet Aug. 9, and traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a
quarter-point increase. What the Fed does after that depends
mostly on forthcoming economic data. Will it remain somewhat
accommodative, or go to a neutral level circa 4%, where the
funds’ rate neither boosts nor holds back economic growth?
However, I confess I am not a particularly good bond trader. I am
occasionally “brilliant” only with forecasting bond
surprises that are primarily astrologically driven. I don’t fully
understand why both non-inflation bonds and inflation bonds are acting
in tandem, beyond my belief that some people KNOW there is inflation,
while others BELIEVE [or don’t disbelieve] in the
government’s ability to measure inflation. I sometimes muse that
the problem could be one of the AFTER effects of the well known
“math crisis” in the American educational system!
What is the “true” rate of inflation? Is it really
less than 3%? If so, and the US economy is also doing just fine
thank you, then perhaps one needn’t own as much gold as I
currently recommend [Model portfolio weightings 10%-20%].
BOTTOM LINE: The stock market
will continue to be preoccupied with interest rates and Oil prices. By
the ides of July (Saturn enters Leo on July 16th), corporate profits
and outlooks will set the tone for much of this Summer’s trading.
This plus NASA’s forecast for the hottest summer on record (since
1800) should drive many market professionals to the beach and mountains
to vacation.
TRADERS: The US Dollar is about to
lose it Q2 2005 astrological support. How long before Nasdaq nuts will
be crying in their beer, assuming they are not heavily margined and can
still afford it? Despite a New Moon Wednesday, it seems that June
30th’s failed 10453 retest of the 2003 market close may be one
more CONFIRMATION of our Q3 2005 market mantra: SELL IN JUNE (NOT MAY) AND GO AWAY!
INVESTORS: Unless you like to stay at
parties until the very end, continue to be raise cash level this month.
My long term view is well known: focus on protecting against
downside risk through most of the rest of 2005, and 2006 will be bleak.
Finally, Make sure you own
Summer Gold.
GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: ENERGY AND
RESOURCE CONSERVATION
"We should follow a path that is tech-intensive, cost-effective,
low-pollution and one in which people can exercise their capabilities."
Chinese President Hu Jintao
Hu urged the establishment of a long-term mechanism for promoting
resource conservation via recycling and cleaner, more efficient energy
usage. China's leader also called for public awareness campaigns to
raise conservation consciousness, especially among the young, "so that
the saving of energy and resources can become a volunteer act by all
citizens."
HW: Could this be one reason China is currently viewed more favorably
than the US by EU citizens today?
KEYDATES: July 6
DJIA:
10300 S1 10200 S2 10100 S3 10400 PIVOT R1 10450 R2
10500 R3 10550
SPX:
1200 RESISTANCE?
NASDAQ: 2000 SUPPORT/2100 RESISTANCE
XAU:
92 PIVOT 95 R1 98 R2 100 R3 105 R4 113 R5
GOLD: BUY
US$:
DISTRIBUTE/SELL
Market Marker Sentiment: First Bullish, then Bearish.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO!
2004 CLOSE: DJIA 10784, SPX
1211 & NASDAQ 2175
2003 CLOSE: DJIA 10453, SPX
1111 & NASDAQ 2003
DIJA: 2 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer
4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology is mixed, the external risk
potential is high. Looking ahead, my question is whether 2006 will show
less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING
AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
Before H2 2006, reduce indebtedness as
much as possible, as quickly as possible.
3. Chief Financial Officer Marc Oken of Bank of America [BAC] forecasts
$4.43 a share in 2006 and $5 per share earnings in 2007. However, given
Bank of America’s current M&A buying sprees: first, paying $3
billion for 9% of China Construction Bank, and second, their somewhat
pricey acquisition of MBNA, we downgraded BAC July 30 at 46+ from
“Market Out Perform” to “Sector Perform.”
My main issue is that while these may be good long term acquisitions,
they are pricey, especially given the fire sales that we believe are
coming in 2006/2007. I acknowledge BAC runs a far better consumer
division that either its Citigroup [C] and JPMorgan [JPM] competitors.
While we also see some potential profit growth for BAC [except possibly
in China], its upside could be limited short and intermediate term. We
therefore advise some appropriate portfolio actions, e.g. Distribution,
Long/Short or Call Writing strategies be considered.
4. Silver Wheaton [SLWHF, SLW-TSX] which markets itself as a
“pure” silver play will be trading on the American Stock
Exchange Wednesday July 6, 2005 under the symbol "SLW".
Silver Wheaton is the only mining company with 100% of its revenue from
silver production. SLW has over US $30million in cash &
equivalents, no debt and obviously no hedging program. Its second
quarter results for 2005 will be released on July 26th. Depending
on the precise time of SLW’s first trade Wednesday, it is likely
to have a Sector Buy rating after listing.
“[7/1] Friday July 1 while gold was crashing down, we issued our
second major institutional trading Buy MOC [= $429]. Summer trading
targets re-iterated $467 to $500.
Note: July 16, Saturn enters Leo, which rules gold. We expect a
slow change (remember Saturn acts slowly and can be "late”)
regarding investors’ view of the value of gold as an asset
class.”
WSNW subscribers are advised to periodically review our premium post S: Mining
Stocks 2005 monthly until 2008 or gold is $800, which ever comes
first.
5. You
Know You're An Astronut If...
You read Wall Street, Next Week?!
6. “Oil at $60 a barrel is a negative for the outlook. It's not
going to halt economic growth, but it's one of the things that's
slowing global economies.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist, PNC Financial Services Group
HW: I agree, however even $50 oil has about the same economic
drag.
"Based on historic ratios between gold and oil, gold should now be over
$500 an ounce. Or the price of oil needs to come down to $40 to $42 a
barrel."
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer, U.S. Global Funds
HW: Given most gold analysts expect Christmas gold to attack the $500
or shortly thereafter, that could mean Oil prices may remain high for
some time.
"Investors are looking at gold differently. The inflation genie is out
of the bottle, and you would want to look to how to protect your wealth
going forward."
David Baker, comanager, Baker Steel Capital Managers
HW: I wonder if buying some gold could offer some wealth protection?
7. Top
performers' picks vs. those of the worst
The newsletters with the best long-term records may be a lot more
bullish on the stock market than their poorer-performing brethren.
HW: Perhaps the historical worst may be just early this time.
As
gold strikes higher, some see serious inflation warnings
How
Will Coming Chinese Currency Revaluation Affect Gold and Silver?
8. READER: Get ready for a recession next year...March: 06. Now its
time to start saving and buy in 2006 as fire sale prices anything and
everything.
HW: My 2006 is
COMING web post agrees with you. However, recession is most often
defined as two negative GDP quarters, so technically March 2006 is
probably too early a call, however economically unpleasant it may be.
READER: Henry, Don't look @ the sky look @ the selling in GOLD right
NOW.
Sounds like a contrarian buy signal to me- OK 429 it is. [This was
during the pre-holiday gold futures slaughter.]
HW: Saturn moving into Leo (which rules Gold) mid July will be key as
to whether the majority of gold bears are right short term, or the
contrarian minority of both short and intermediate term bulls. Even so,
with Friday’s selling, gold stocks (which lead physical gold)
agree with me. While gold dropped $8 on Friday, the XAU rose .37 to
93.38 and HUI gained .51 to 202.07.
READER: I see that TNXT has remedied the "E" problem by dropping down
to the pink sheets. Will this make it easier for the market to
get the message that they are a great company?
HW: I think not, but probably a necessary step short term.
READER: Just wondering if TNXT is finished being put on the Pink
Sheets? Or is there still hope?
HW: There is still hope. It depends how well TNXT takes advantage
of some positive Astro this Summer. By Fall, it should be well
known.
READER: In the beginning of May you advised us to be long QQQQ went in
4 weeks up 12,5%. Very interesting for a CALL.
HW: Thank you.
READER: You say we are going to be short before July 15 until
roughly mid-August. In your DMC you say we should short QQQQ [X] OB
Target number 3 is [Y ]If this target is supposed to come mid-August I
can't see any reason to invest. But if this target is only a
preliminary target, which after a retracement we will have, a new lower
target sounds more interesting. Or is this a kind of information you
only give your professional clients?
HW: In general, yes.
9. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
Be ready to break open your aggressive speculation piggy bank later
this month.
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PAST WALL STREET NEXT WEEK REPORTS
FRIDAY
11 am listen to our Internet radio program TRADING BY THE
STARS.
(c)
2005 All rights reserved. The Astrologers Fund
"Always a Stellar Performance"
wsnw@Afund.com 212/949-7211 Fax 212/949-7274 370
Lexington Avenue, Suite 416 New York, N.Y. 10017-6503
Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF
ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purposes only. PAST
RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR
PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.
INVESTORS ARE REMINDED TO PERFORM
THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. ALWAYS
INDEPENDENTLY INVESTIGATE AND FULLY UNDERSTAND ALL RISK BEFORE MAKING
ANY
INVESTMENT.
The Astrologers Fund Inc. Accepts No Liability
Whatsoever For Any Loss Arising
From Any Use Of Its Report Or It's Contents. The
Astrologers Fund Inc. Or Its Clients Usually Holds Positions In
The Stocks and/or Market Instruments Mentioned And May Buy Or Sell
At Any Time Without Notice depending on market conditions and
personal financial conditions. This Information is
In
No Way A Representation To Buy Or Sell Securities, Bonds,
Options Or Futures. This information is not intended to be
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nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the
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Please read our Disclaimer
for more information and note that my clients and I are shareholders
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In January
2005, TNXT became a client of
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Weingarten as well as a client of a related entity THE SEASONED
SPECULATOR. The
initial contract was for 3 months for $10,500 with Target Publishing,
Inc for a
variety of investor and brokerage awareness services. Later 50,000
shares of
TNXT were added to the contract for additional consulting services
April and May 2005 an additional $3500 fee was paid.
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client of Henry Weingarten and Susan Hahn & Associates on March 17,
2005 and will be paying $3500 monthly plus 100,000 restricted shares to
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