2. JUNE MARKETS
3. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
8. AFUND CLIENTS
1. 6/5 Jupiter SD
6/6 New Moon 5:55pm ET
6/14 Uranus SR
6/21 Summer Solstice 2:46 am ET
6/22 Full Moon 0.14 am ET
6/28 Mercury & Venus both enter Leo
2. SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY?
Historically, May kicks off the worst six months of the year. The
average returns from May through October, since 1950, have been 0.3
percent for the Dow and 1.4 percent for the S&P 500 versus an
average gain of 8 percent in the Dow and 7.4 percent in the S&P 500
from November through April, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
HW: But you needed astrology to know that THIS MAY, you should have
sold at the end of May and not the beginning. Winners bought May with
Nasdaq close 1900 and Dow 10150. We then recommended reversing course
and selling close to Nasdaq 2100 and Dow 10550. Will June be tame
and traded hedged long/short? Will bears have to wait until later this
month or perhaps even Mid July?
For me, June 2005 is a time to raise cash; being defensive is the order
of the day.
TRADERS: We are happily short on WSNW Alert Sell 10
hopefully for some time. If not, we will try again, especially at the
end of the month, when the US Dollar loses its last astrological
support and Nasdaq nuts will soon be crying in their beer, assuming
they are not heavily margined and can still afford it! Given the
strong cash positions of some rabid bulls, we intend to remain nimble
traders. If need be, we will be stopped out and reshort again {and
again} at appropriate astrological times and technical price points.
INVESTORS: Unless
you like to stay at parties until the very end, you should be raising
cash levels this month and next. My long term view is well known:
focus on protecting against downside risk through most of the rest of
2005, and 2006
will be bleak. Finally, make
sure you own Summer Gold.
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
This week! I will be busy with both the Bear Stearn’s Technology
Conference and the Nareit 2005 REIT Marketplace Waldorf Conference.
Next week I will be up in Vancouver for the World Gold, PGM and Diamond
Conference as well as IHI’s AGM. The next two week’s WSNW
newsletters may therefore be a bit delayed, abbreviated or
skipped. If need be, just study our investing advice above.
GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Today's
Prophetic Noahs and Paul Reveres Sound Alarms
Record numbers of Americans roaded this Memorial Day holiday despite
the highest gas prices ever recorded for a holiday. Ah but just wait
until next year….
KEYDATES: June 6, 10
DJIA:
10400 S1 10250 S2 10100 S3 10454 PIVOT R1
10500 R2 10550 R3 10600
SPX:
1200 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 2000 SUPPORT/2100
RESISTANCE?
XAU:
88 PIVOT 90 R1 95 R2 100 R3 105 R4 113 R5
US$:
DISTRIBUTE/SELL
Market Marker Sentiment: First Bullish, then Bearish.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO!
2004 CLOSE: DJIA 10784, SPX
1211 & NASDAQ 2175
2003 CLOSE: DJIA 10453, SPX
1111 & NASDAQ 2003
DIJA: 2 ~ FV 0 UV; 5 offer
4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology is mixed, the external risk
potential is high. Looking ahead, my question is whether 2006 will show
less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING
AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
3. I am a BIG gold bug
for the Summer of 2005 on. At the recent May NY Institutional Gold
Conference, I was an exhibiter favorite: “You've got to speak to
this guy…We hope he is right.” I was one of the few short
term/intermediate term gold bulls. The majority of conference
speakers were short term bearish. As a natural contrarian investor,
this negative psychology was music to my ears. My views on gold are
based on a combination of fundamental, technical and astrological
reasons that are well known to WSNW readers. Longer term, almost
all conference attendees were bullish on gold as the forthcoming Bear
market of 2006 (if not sooner) is very likely to be positive for gold
as it was in both the early and late 70’s.
After the Vancouver Gold show, I will be updating our premium
subscriber S:
Gold post once again. In the meantime, I will share two
observations from the NY show:
1) We will no longer be avoiding the South African Gold companies,
given probable Rand future movements. While they will not be our
favorite gold plays, some are now worth looking into, should that be
your desired global asset allocation model.
2) Rather than many silver and diamond company exhibitors, there were
many Uranium
mining companies present. Uranium is now back in vogue and as most
astrologers know, is named after the planet Uranus. The
fundamental case is Bush and Co, plus 50 new plants in China and India
that will come online. Being SRI inclined, I am not rushing into
this potential “golden opportunity”. However, it does seem
that the profit potential will be there. None-the-less, I still
prefer investing in the safe, clean and environmentally friendly
renewable energy space (Biomass, Geothermal, Solar, Wind etc.)
4. Reversing a downward trend in luxury consumer confidence, the
Luxury Consumption Index rose 5.3 points to reach 100.9 at the close of
the first quarter 2005. "Despite rising gas prices and feelings of
uncertainty about the economy as a whole, luxury consumers in the first
quarter of 2005 are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel in
terms of their personal financial status," says Pam Danziger, president
of Unity Marketing
and author of Let Them Eat Cake: Marketing Luxury to the Masses.
"For luxury home marketers, they have to look to the younger luxury
consumers, members of the GenXer (born 1965-1976) and Millennial (1977
and after) cohorts, as their primary target markets as the luxury baby
boomers continue to emphasize spending their luxury dollars on things
to do and places to go, rather than acquiring more material goods,"
Danziger explains.
HW: Over time, more Americans realize they are no longer as rich as
they still think they are. I therefore recommend limiting luxury
investments to those that primarily cater to rich foreigners (not US
dollar holders) that will increasingly rule the world.
5. “I wouldn't put any long money to work right now [buying
bonds]. Two things can happen: Nothing happens, or you lose a lot of
money. There's no upside. Unless this economy rolls over and dies, I
expect interest rates to go higher later this year.”
Joe Deane, a managing director, Citigroup Asset Management
HW: Sounds like a classic lose, lose proposition in US Bonds.
“All of the economic forces point to a dramatic slowdown ahead
which will turn into a serious recession, with almost no tools left to
abort that possibility.''
Gabe Borenstein, managing director of global investments, Investec
Holdings
HW: As the US economy is now slowing from 3.1% to 2.6% growth, it
is only a question of when the pundits admit the economic truth. My bet
is that they will be late as usual.
“To have a high proportion in US assets is far from ideal so
it’s good to diversify.”
Mark Austin, Head of currency strategy, HSBC Holdings
HW: You said a mouthful.
6. As
US rate conundrum deepens, Wall St has answers
There are no
longer any truly conservative U.S. dollar denominated investments
“The challenge is to choose the currencies that are most likely
to conserve their purchasing power, based on objective economic and
political criteria, and then to invest in conservative stocks
denominated in those currencies -- those that might be thought of as
being for “widows and orphans” for citizens of the
countries in which they are domiciled.”
Avian flu
pandemic could be massive disaster – and few are noticing
HW: Yes, but this is only one of nearly 40 potential disasters that may
strike in 2006. So why worry now?
7. READER: I am puzzled by the different conclusions reached by
astrologers. For instance, your view differs drastically with
Rebecca Nolan's. She appears to think that the market is ready to
soar - far different your views. Or am I misreading you?
HW: Why should two astrologers agree on everything any more than two
economists or technical analysts? My view is that we have had most of
the year’s second rally (our three MMD rallies). While we
recognize that a number of big traders see a rally extending as far as
the end of June or midJuly, that is not our view.
READER: You say gold will rise by or before the end of June. I read
that to be the last 1-2 weeks of June. And with a target 480-500
sometime in August: Do you know when in August? The beginning? Last? Or
somewhat in between?
HW: What difference as long as the gold bottom is in (XAU 78) and the
trend is up? Play September or December options, but just don’t
be too far out of the money and only shoot for a home run. I will be
happy and make money (as a trader) to see even $450 in August gold.
READER: You think the general market is on its peak now? If so it could
be interesting to buy a PUT on QQQQ January 2006? The profit if QQQQ
falls 10% could be 50-100%?
HW: Yes, I do, but June may be tricky. However, Nasdaq and QQQQ
shorts are most tempting both short term AND long term for their very
favorite risk/reward parameters.
READER: GOOG continues to look strong. Never really went down below its
opening trade. If you shorted Google the past month, you are losing a
lot of money.
"For example, take our favorite 2005/2006 trading short Google (GOOG),
which has a history very similar to Yahoo mania"
HW: Our Google short is like our Yahoo short of the past: It is
continuous, taking small profits and losses until eventually winning
the big one, e.g. 200 to below 30. In Yahoo’s case it will be 288
(or > 300?) to 80 and below. Shorts are NEVER naked buy and hold,
especially during our projected strong rally months, e.g. May.
Note: Google could be poised for the magic 300+ with CSFB raising
their price target on Google (GOOG) from $275 to $350. Most
often, we use 3 points intraday stops until our projected final victory
in 2006.
8. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
I will be up in Vancouver for the IHI AGM June 14th. Shortly
thereafter, I should be reporting on my visit.
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subscribers.
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