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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: MAY 9, 2005
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. MAY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS
RIPLEY’S BELIEVE IT OR NOT
· The Fed's assertion that longer-term
inflation expectations remain "well contained." That must be true
because my medical insurance rates were only raised 18% this year,
compared with 12% last year, etc, etc.
· According to Standard & Poor's,
companies that pay dividends posted a total return of 18.35% percent in
2004. That compares with a 13.65% return for non-payers. We expect the
same relative out performance in 2005, e.g. DVY. However, remember that
a number of struggling companies such as General Motors are likely to
cut dividend payouts.
THE MARKET POWER OF THE FED
No government agency is more careful about the statements it releases
than the Federal Reserve, where a single word can move financial
markets. But did it really goof on Tuesday by dropping the sentence,
"Longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained."? Why
did it take the Fed one hour and 45 minutes to alert reporters by
saying the missing sentence "was dropped inadvertently."
Fed officials asked news agencies to report the dropped sentence before
Wall Street stock trading ended at 4 p.m. EDT. Was it because the
Dow was down 46 points five minutes before the close and the Fed was
worried? Right after this “correction” it surged into positive
territory.
“They are very, very gently warning the markets that they are concerned
about inflation; this statement continues the pattern of sugar-coating
all the bad news," according to Ethan Harris, senior economist at
Lehman Brothers.
HW: Doesn’t the Fed KNOW that sugar is bad for your health?
TRADERS: While we are expecting
another rally beginning sometime next week the question remains: how
high can markets go? Based on current news, they will have great
difficulty taking out DOW 10500 and NASDAQ 2000, even if there is good
news from Csco and Dell. After all, Oil is comfortably above $50 and
Wednesday twin deficits numbers will encourage foreign investors to
invest until AFTER the inevitable: A real US decline!
INVESTORS: While we will be on
another TRADING BUY next week, we are also on an INVESTING DISTRIBUTE/
SELL into strength May. Markets will reach another intermediate term
peak at the end of this month or early June, then we expect another
test down especially for NASDAQ
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: WASHINGTON IS
FIDDLING WHILE AMERICA BURNS (GAS)!
GLOBAL ALERT: Accelerate Energy Conservation.
FACTOID: Foreign holdings reached a
record high 53 percent of total privately held public US debt in early
2005.
KEYDATES: May 10, 11
DJIA:
10350 PIVOT
SPX:
1155 S1 1160 S2 1165 S3 1172 PIVOT 1180 R1 1188 R2
1200 R3
NASDAQ: 1960 R1 1980 R2 2000 R3
XAU:
85 PIVOT
Market Marker Sentiment: First Bullish, then Bearish.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO!
2003 CLOSE:
DJIA 10453, SPX 1111 & NASDAQ 2003
DIJA:
1 ~ FV 0
UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology is mixed, the external risk
potential is high. Looking ahead, my question is whether 2006 will show
slow growth less than 2%, no growth, or turn into a classical
recession.
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING
AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. Canada's Competitive
Advantages
The Economist Intelligence Unit states that Canada will be the best
place in the G-7 to invest and do business between 2005-2009. We agree.
Furthermore Statistics Canada said on Friday that more people were
working in April than in March, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.8%,
the lowest jobless rate since December 2000.
And it gets even better! May is Better Sleep Month in Canada. The
Better Sleep Council Canada will be telling Canadians about the
importance of sleep to good health. The Better Sleep Council Canada
reminds all Canadians to make time for a bi-annual bed check: a better
quality mattress and foundation when regularly replaced improves the
quality of life of sleepers. Surprisingly, one in 10 Canadians
confesses they've never done a bed check -- evaluated the condition of
their mattress, that is. And for another 20% of the population, it's
been over a year! Given that Canadians are likely to sleep better
this month, as well as US markets will hold up, its time for global
investors to relook at increasing their Canadian content of their
portfolios 5%.
WSNW subscribers may review our newly updated premium post: S: Canada 2005.
3. Japan's Cabinet ministers will not wear neckties and jackets during
Cabinet meetings and regular press conferences from June to September
to save energy. As reported in the Mainichi Daily News, Chief Cabinet
Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda said the ministers would not wear neckties to
conserve air conditioning energy. Ministers reportedly plan to ask Diet
politicians “to follow suit with the lack of suits.”
We applaud this leadership by example (especially in contrast
with US politicians.) With lower energy bills and therefore less drain
on their balance of payments, it is no wonder 1) the YEN has been
rising and will continue to rise intermediate term vs. the US Dollar
and 2) the Nikkei 225 will outperform vs. US markets into 2006.
WSNW subscribers may wish to review our newly updated premium post: S: Japan
2005/2006 for more.
4. "Is it time to dust off the R word. My answer is, 'No'. But it’s not
too early to worry."
Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer, Johnson Illington Advisors
HW: GMTA.
"Right now, people are overpaying for bonds, and underpaying for
stocks,"
David Kelly, chief economist, Putnam Investments.
HW: I only half agree. People are also overpaying for stocks.
“Payrolls will disappoint on the downside. I advise to keep it simple,
own cash.''
Enzio Von Pfeil, director, Commercial Economics
HW: While they did NOT disappoint, your advice to have cash is right:
Cash will be KING in 2006!
5. Buffett
tells shareholders most stocks are overpriced
"The tidal wave of dollars America is shipping abroad to buy oil and
manufactured goods and the IOUs offshore interests are buying from
Uncle Sam to fund the nation's deficit spending are likely to cause
disruption for the United States, Buffett cautioned - particularly in a
global economy where wealth is building up in the hands of what he
called "hair-trigger" investors."
What
You DON’T Want to Do With Your Money
“When the Fed tells the world it has quit raising rates -- and the slow
creep of earnings per share growth via stock repurchasing tells the
value buyers that stocks are cheap relative to bonds, cash and anything
else -- we get the fourth-quarter rally. Until then, you have to:
Hunt stocks with a rifle, not a shotgun… Stay out of index funds and
other instruments of mediocrity AND use rallies to get out of Skinny
Dipper and the "Big Hat, No Cattle" cyclical stocks.”
Gold
“buy” signal pops up
"The gold to XAU ratio indicator tells us to buy gold shares when it’s
above 5.0... the average annual one-year holding period return for
stocks in the XAU has been 38.4%. The ratio currently stands at 5.08."
6. READER: You said "Remember this is a Trading Buy, but an Investing
Distribute".
Are you saying "Remember this is a Trading Buy, not an Investing
Distribute"?
HW: No. I am saying this is BOTH a Trading buy and an Investing
Distribute, the former now at the beginning of the May, the latter at
the end or shortly thereafter.
READER: Apparently a lot of participants are bearish on Gold shares
until HUI 150 reached. I guess these views are maybe too bearish, or
too consensus and we should buy now? http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh043005.html
HW: My advice is: Accumulate gold now into June. Gold is a
portfolio hedge today, but a major trade this summer.
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: Today [TNXTE] traded on 0.04 USD on a high volume. Serious
problems again, or an extremely nice bargain?
HW: It is the "E" factor. I think a nice bargain for some very high
risk/reward capital here.
READER: What is the "E" factor?
HW: It is the risk/reward opportunity that comes with an “E” listing or
late filing. Given Sarbanes-Oxley compliance costs and difficulties, it
is increasingly common for small and nano-caps today. For some
companies this can be an early warning sign, while for others such as
TNXTE IMHO, it signals both an unbelievable trading opportunity and
high risk investing bargain.
easons. [Note: April
29 was a nice up day and likely the beginning of the first MMD rally.]
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PAST WALL STREET NEXT WEEK REPORTS
FRIDAY
11 am listen to our Internet radio program TRADING BY THE
STARS.
(c)
2005 All rights reserved. The Astrologers Fund
"Always a Stellar Performance"
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF
ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
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