WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: APRIL 18, 2005
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK APRIL 18, 2005
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS

WILL THE DOW STAY ABOVE 10,000 IN MAY? SOME INVESTOR FOOD FOR THOUGHT
Friday was a tale of two markets: IBM vs. GE and Citicorp as markets begin to approach our first P1 long term positional trading targets of Dow 9750, SPX 1133 and NASDAQ 1800.
Investors are now concerned whether the US stock market will hold Dow 10,000. Short term it may, given several upcoming minor positive astro influences. But even if it doesn’t, the upcoming May Mother’s Day rally is likely to push it back over 10K. However, intermediate and especially longer term, it clearly will not.
Watch our key Dow numbers 10280, 10,000 and 9750. While, we will be issuing some very short term trading buys, these may be the final opportunities for investors to exit risky Nasdaq stocks that are set to fall further by Summer.

Given a forthcoming May/Mother’s Day rally, how high will it go? Dow 10280? Dow 10454? Dow 10,500? Higher?
With 11,000 the clear overhead ceiling and 10,500 increasingly hard to justify [although it could be taken out], why should investors buy even if Oil “surprisingly” does drop below $50?
This week all investors will be watching not so much earnings as forward guidance.  Will profits drop next quarter, or will take even more time for the current true state of the US economy to become more widely known? 

TRADERS:      Friday it was obvious while last month we recommended April Puts.  In a far less dramatic fashion, we advise some select May calls, buying either this week or after Sunday’s Lunar Eclipse by early to MidMay.  However, watch your back (place trailing profit stops).

INVESTORS: Distribute/Sell into May’s strength and a first (or second) gold accumulation this week.

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: REALITY CHECK NEEDED 
 "Much of the mainstream financial media seems to assume that you'll forget the line they fed you the day before."
Elliot Wave International
President George W. Bush is blaming China for the surge in crude and gasoline prices in America.
That’s funny because I blame the war in Iraq.  Have you noticed just much gasoline the armed forces are using there?
But most important is the C issue: how unconscionably wasteful America’s energy use is. If America were to have the SAME energy conservation standards of “old Europe”, THERE WOULD BE NO NEED TO IMPORT ANY FOREIGN OIL! Food for thought eh?

KEYDATES:        April 19, 22
DJIA:                   10,000 PIVOT
SPX:                    1133 SUPPORT 1205 RESISTANCE   
NASDAQ:           1900 PIVOT
XAU:                    Second Long Term Accumulate 85-88.

Market Marker Sentiment: First Bullish, then Bearish.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2003 CLOSE:             DJIA 10453, SPX 1111 & NASDAQ 2003
DIJA:         3 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology is mixed, the external risk potential is high. Looking ahead, my question is whether 2006 will show sluggish growth, less than 2%, no growth, or turn into a classical recession.
PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

2. Friday’s stock market provided four possible new Dow Dog Trades: buying within two days of bad news or a disappointing earnings drop to either its 52 week or 2 year low, for a quick 5-8% trading bounce. Thereafter Selling if a market bear, or using a trailing profit stop if a market Bull.  Given a May market rally circa Mother’s day, purchasing May call options is another way to play.
This should work for IBM, which also reached our revised Fair Market Value of 77. This could also work for SBC and VZ. Keep in mind both report on April 25. As this happens on a likely down day, non-market Bulls may be wiser to hold off buying until then. Finally, there is GM with its 7.8% dividend yield. Over time, it is likely to fall further and any GM rally will not be a dead cat bounce, but a SLOW climb against a wall of worry.
Dow Watchers Note: While GE is now back to its historic first place market cap over XOM, we think it only fair to wait until Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports earnings on April 28 (a likely UP day) before declaring a GE victory here.
For our latest opinion of Dow stocks, WSNW subscribers are invited to read our recently updated premium post: S: DJIA 2005.

3. Google chiefs agree to work for $1
According to Google's latest proxy statement, the search engine's CEO Eric Schmidt and co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin requested during the second quarter of 2004 that their salaries be reduced to $1. 
HW: This is excessive corporate pay if their salary is being benchmarked against future GOOG stock performance. While I believe GOOG is by and large a great company, its stock is ridiculously overvalued [p/e >100]. I fully expect to see it fall by ½ by 2006, and not due to a stock split!

4. “You should definitely fear being long dollars. You want to have some caution because of the deficit and demand for U.S. assets.”
Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist, Investors Bank & Trust
HW: Short term, any US dollar “strengthening” is due primarily to astrological reasons. After June, this support will be gone, and being long dollars will be seen as the increasingly losing proposition that it has been for years.

"Earnings are really the only hope for this market If, on the whole, earnings can go up, then we might be able to overcome oil and inflation and all the other things."
Brian Pears, head equity trader, Victory Capital Management
HW: 1) Investing 101 is about current and future profits and 2) “Hope” is the enemy of smart investing and trading.

“This [IBM] is a complete, unpleasant surprise,"
Steve Neimeth, portfolio manager, AIG SunAmerica Mutual Funds
HW: Boy was your financial astrologer sleeping or what!

5. Jeremy Siegel's Buy List
Author urges investors to seek dividend-payers with moats. 

Ranking 10 Places to Find Stock-Picking Ideas:

Hopes for Silver Spring Eternal

6. READER: In May/June you say Gold will be soaring. And USD will at the same time fall? If so, how to hedge USD positions? Futures EURO/USD? Other suggestions?
HW: No I NEVER said Gold would be soaring in May/June. I said to finish A THREE month ACCUMULATION of buying by May/June as gold will be soaring by the summer.  It could be up or down in June.

READER: Peter Schiff claimed in a coming Bear market would set a pressure for an increase in interest rates. Is that so?
HW: It depends on the CAUSE of the BEAR MARKET.
READER: I have not a clue what you mean about this. Maybe you can say something about it in your weekly update?
HW: Does the forthcoming Bear Market come (initially) from stock market issues such as interest rate hikes, dollar collapse, declining corporate profits and more corporate scandals or from the likes of natural disasters, Terrorism, global Medical emergencies etc.?

READER: Gold shares falling like a knife. Do you still see gold bottoming at 420?
HW: We are doing one of 4 buys today [April 14/15]. The others will be in May and June.

READER: Stock market down… Gold shares down… We are scared.
HW: We have been talking for a long time about the economic difficulties ahead. You should be getting prepared for 2006. Regarding gold, this is NOT the summer. Q2 2005 is the time to be slowly accumulating beginning NOW.  Buying gold is NOT a short term trade, but a MAJOR investing opportunity that is developing over April, May and June. That is why it is our recommendation to begin buying over this time in four parts or monthly buys.

7.  HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS

READER: About IHI, do they plan to hold shareholder meeting or opening high-rise next months?
HW: IHI’s AGM will be in Vancouver June 14, 2005. I will be there. Their hi rise will begin shortly after the building permit is issued. I expect this around or before the AGM.
 READ THE SEASONED SPECULATOR
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
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