WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: NOVEMBER 22, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS

1. Dollar, markets dive on Greenspan warning / Trade gap and deficit hurting U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan delivered a blunt warning Friday that foreign investors might get sick of subsidizing the nation's widening trade and budget deficits. One has to be surprised if he just noticed. He must have heard Deputy Central Bank Chairman Konstantin Korishchenko tell Reuters on Thursday that the proportion of euros in Russia's foreign exchange reserves has risen to 25-30% from 10% two years ago. More countries are sure to follow.  This is one reason we see gold at $500, although we would like to see at least one strong test of $420 to $425 support, before buying and holding gold for more than hedging purposes.

The first week of December markets will show investors the new market sentiment to rule into 2005. Ahead of that, we plan to eat turkey and only make a few trades.

TRADERS:          Holiday week trading.
INVESTORS:     We continue to patiently await tax-selling December dumps and bargains.

KEYDATES:    NOVEMBER 24, 26
DJIA:               10,500 SUPPORT?
SPX:                1985 PIVOT   
NASDAQ:       2101 PIVOT
GOLD:            425 Support 444 PIVOT 450 Resistance

SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD:    DJIA 10453   NASDAQ 2003 SPX 1111.
October Lows:         DJIA   9660,  SPX  1090 & NASDAQ  1899
FAIR VALUE:        DJIA <9660,  SPX<1090 & NASDAQ<1899, GOLD = 444
DIJA:                      3 ~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external risk potential is still high.

2. ETF Focus: Buyers pile into first gold ETF offering
GLD Thursday November 18, 2004 9:30:14 am 122,500 shares at 44.43. It was interesting to note that it debuted at the Fair Value (FV) of gold at 444!  Still it went down slightly to close at 44.38 but rallied somewhat to 44.78 Friday. Gold, like artwork, is classified as a collectible by the IRS and is therefore taxed at a higher 28% capital-gains rate in the United States after being held for more than one year.
$450 gold was last seen June 1988 and was last above $500 in mid-December 1987 and we project it to be there again in July.  While everyone speaks today of gold as currencies- it is also an inflation and safety metal investment. In 2006 GLD will outperform, while in 2008 we project it could be somewhat of a home run. Enough said.

3. How many genes does it take to make a human? Only about the same number it takes for a small flowering plant or a tiny worm. "We (humans) don't look very impressive in the competition," said Dr. Francis Collins, co-author of the new analysis that decoded the human genome. The new estimate is 20,000 to 25,000 genes, a drop from the 30,000 to 40,000 the same group of scientists published in 2001. "It's not just the number of genes that matters," said another co-author, Eric Lander of the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts. "It really is how nature uses these genes." Gerald Rubin, a gene expert at the University of California, Berkeley said "We just have to get used to the fact that we don't have many more genes than a worm.” How will this affect biotech investors in genomic stocks? I believe much in the same way as the election of President Bush.  Short term, not very helpful, but intermediate term there will be bargains after nanotechnology stars explode and are cashed out. In the meantime, we are looking to accumulate  November Stock of the Month pick Enzo (ENZ) 17.35 OB.

4. “For the rest of the year, we continue to see the dollar pressured by the deterioration in the structural deficiencies of the US economy, namely the aggregate current account and budget deficits accounting for 10.1 per cent of gross domestic product.”
Laidi Ashraf, chief currency analyst, MG Financial Group
HW: In other words, massive government spending and lower taxation is not a magic elixir.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that inflation risks, if anything, have continued to build. The main source of these pressures is strong domestic demand.''
Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist, Barclays Capital
HW: I disagree. The main source of these pressures is the declining US dollar.

"We spent a long time trying to get above $430 an ounce and really had to fight for it, but now we have broken above there and that's a bullish signal. It's broken the downtrend and now that we're above $430 the next major target for me is $500."
HW: Carl Birkelbach, chief executive, Birkelbach
HW: I at not so confident 449 will be broken by more than stops pulling short term.

5.  Snow Likes His Strong Dollar Weaker

Inflation surge: Is it here to stay?

How should Google’s founders invest the cash?

6. READER: Henry, my vision 2005 November:
Dow Jones     7800    gold       850    Euro         1,55    silver        33
Aex                210    Nikkei   9700    Nasdaq     1200    USd       0,74 Yen      0,95
HW: I didn’t realize you were so bullish. J

READER: You were right so far about the dollar but need to revise your recommendation of 50% holding in international stocks to 75% instead.  Bush has doomed the dollar because they want U.S. businesses to succeed in exports and reduce trade deficits.  It is only the beginning.  Euro at exchange of at least 1.70 eventually.  Party is over for dollar.  Gold is getting too scary as a result.  Bush just got elected.  This will continue to push stock market up during near future.
HW: 50% is our maximum allocation outside of a home country. However, you could easily add 10% to gold over time as well as play currency hedges short term, e.g. A$ to 82 to achieve the same goal. If you live in a non-US dollar zone, then intermediate term your allocation seems about right.

7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
We eagerly await December to buy more microcaps at bargain basement pricing.

READER: When are you planning to post long promised IHI update?  Is there some hesitation, no positive indication or just no time?
HW: Not hesitation per se, but time pressed trying to finish a number of 2005 updates as well as waiting for the Thanksgiving period to see what news may be there under some fairly strong positive astro. 


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