Wall Street Next Week NOVEMBER 1, 2004
WALL STREET,
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WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK: NOVEMBER 1, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS
1. US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NOVEMBER 2
Despite some recent polls, there is a very good chance Kerry will win.
If so, markets MAY drop to retest their October lows. If so, we will be BIG
buyers by early December. If Bush wins, we will be buying even more
gold and selling the US dollar. Two model portfolios follow:
Bush 5: Barrick Gold (ABX), Goodrich (GR), Pfizer (PFE), Merrill Lynch
(MER), and Tiffany (TIF)
Kerry 5: American Intl Group (AIG), Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM), Capstone
Turbine (CPST), Heinz (HNZ), and ITT EDUCATION (ESI).
However, if the election is hotly contested, it is naturally prudent to
wait before buying.
For more views and portfolio ideas, please visit our web post: Investing for the 2004 US Election.
GOLD
Last week, Gold prices rose to their highest levels in 16 years as investors
bought the precious metal as a hedge against the weak dollar, high oil prices
and the uncertain US presidential election. Given that I just received
a 44% increase in my office electric bill, I believe our prediction that $450
gold was likely in Q4 2004 is on target. In addition to previous selections,
most of our new buying will be Barrick (ABX).
“If Bush wins, we recommend buying a lot more gold tout de suite (immediately).
If Kerry wins, we will be accumulating less gold over time.
Our current favorite major for fresh buying is Barrick [ABX].”
WSNW subscribers may wish to read more at our premium post: S: Mining Stocks 2004/2005.
TRADERS: Markets are obviously on hold until Tuesday night. Thereafter,
expect either a brief rally or another market decline retesting the October
lows.
INVESTORS: Slowly continue stock specific buying; do not be fully invested
before mid-December.
KEYDATES: NOVEMBER 2, 4, 5
DJIA:
10,000 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 1995 RESISTANCE
GOLD: 425
PIVOT
SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003 SPX
1111.
October 2004 Lows: DJIA 9660 NASDAQ
1899 SPX 1090
FAIR VALUE (FV): DJIA <9660, NASDAQ <1899,
GOLD = 425
DIJA:
2 ~ FV 0 UV; 4 offer 4%+
Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external
risk remains high.
2. Last week I had the pleasure of attending the excellent 6th Annual Rodman
& Renshaw Healthcare show at the Waldorf Astoria. I listened to
a number of companies that we now have added to our watch list to buy over
the next several months. These include: Candela [CLZR], Cyrix [CYTR], Crucell
[CRXL] and Orchid Biosciences [ORCH]. Naturally of great general interest
were two cell companies: Aastrom Biosciences [ASTM] and Stem Cells [STEM].
The most personally interesting presentations were two information oriented
companies with great potential: Compugen [CGEN] and Numoda (currently private).
Finally, the company which offered the best cocktail chatter was VIVUS (VVUS),
a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on products that restore sexual
function to both men and women. I loved their argument for their spray vs.
a competitor’s visible patch, as it would signal: “Darling, I love you, but
I need help”!
“We plan to review this sector again post election. In the meantime, we
are looking for companies that 1) provide cost savings, 2) have a BioThreat
component or 3) provide classic life saving or preventive health breakthroughs.”
WSNW Subscribers can read more at our premium post: S: Healthcare Stocks
2005.
3. Not surprisingly, UAE bank profits are up due to strong oil prices: National
Bank of Abu Dhabi, the largest bank in the country, reported a 35% increase
in net profits, while Emirates Bank Group's net profits were up 41%. We also
note that the UAE government will now be allowing foreign companies registered
and operating in the country to get their shares listed locally. Specifically,
five new companies were approved to be listed on the stock market, including
one foreign company, Commercial International Bank (CIB) of Egypt. Of the
other foreign companies under consideration, Bahrain-based Arab Insurance
Group is also worth watching, given the potential for increased new money
inflows. However, as we have underweight rating for both banking and insurance,
I would not advise the average US investor to rush to buy either of these
stocks. If you must buy financials, we continue to recommend circa $55 both
the Canadian Imperial Bank (BCM) and American International Group (AIG) instead.
4. “As we enter the homestretch of the U.S. presidential election,
the chant of `Go Dow Go' can be heard resonating from the Bush camp.''
Andrew Burkly, analyst, Brown Brothers Harriman
HW: So that is the reason markets are now above 10,000?
“Despite bullish sentiments overall, managers are undoubtedly concerned
that small-cap stocks are overvalued and that future economic growth is slowing.
Randy Lert, chief portfolio strategist, Russell Investment Group
HW: True, but it is my bet that the AFUND 5 annual microcap play will bring
home the bacon by January.
"We think the market will continue to advance, but it's definitely time
to adjust your expectations. It's not going to be a robust year. You know
the old phrase, about how 'the easy money has already been made?' That's
true."
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist, S&P
HW: I agree if you are an investor, but for short term traders it remains
paradise.
5. Where
Politics and Portfolios Meet
Election
Likely Won't Affect Portfolios
Ahead
of the Curve: Hail to the Chief, No Matter Who He Is
6. No questions ahead of Tuesday’s November 2 US Presidential election.
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
We were very pleased to see Health Sciences (HESG) 43% one day rally on
Friday. I believe it will be attacking $1 resistance well before January.
Our newest client, United American Corp (UAMA), which is up 50% since October
13, is likely to be trading closer to our microcap valuation of .25 by December.
We have yet to do the astrology on it. This is based on visiting the management
team, and our evaluation of its technology and physical assets. It is
likely to be much higher, sooner rather than later.
Long time favorite IHITF continues to be in smart, slow accumulation mode.
READER: Thanks for UAMA (our October microcap pick of the month) but I haven't
seen anything timely in the AFUND site I can look at. Any other hints?
HW: I am still way behind on both UAMA and HESG postings. Please
check out their websites in the meantime. I strongly recommend both, if appropriate
for your investment profile.
READER: How come no PRs from them [IHI] at all? No information coming
out.
HW: That is because there is nothing materially new to report. Please
note, astrologically speaking, the time period just before and after Thanksgiving,
is another BIG cosmic opportunity for Roger and IHI.
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May 13-15,
2005 Eleventh Astrology
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IHI has been an AFUND
client since 1994 and is currently paying monthly
$2,500 consulting fees and $500 for banner ads
on our website. May 15, 2002, an affiliated company,
Susan Hahn & Associates became IHI’s media representative
with a monthly fee of $1500.
May 17 2004 Health Sciences Group (HESG)
became an AFUND client and is paying $5000 bimonthly in free
trading stock for six months as a consulting fee.
Since October 13 2004, United American Corporation (UAMA)
became an AFUND client paying $2500 monthly plus 250,000 shares of free
trading stock as a consulting fee.
Please read our Disclaimer
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