Wall Street Next Week OCTOBER 18, 2004
WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful
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WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK: OCTOBER 18, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. OCTOBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS
WILL THIS BE THE WEEK THAT WAS?
Gold and Platinum Wall Street subscribers were well prepared for last week’s
market action.
Many technical traders are still expecting a test of the August lows:
DJIA 9825, SPX 1064 & NASDAQ 1857.
Uncertainty about the US presidential election in November 2004, along with
record high global oil prices and the widening US current account deficit,
are bad for growth. The risk/reward for investing in the stock market next
week is greater than 2-1, and may be the worst of 2004.
Furthermore, the probability of a stock market rally this week is under 33%.
Clearly, this is not an ideal time to trade on the long side (past Monday),
or to rush bargain hunting.
Bottom line: Bears are much more likely than Bulls to be celebrating
midweek.
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"Now isn't the time to make heroic market calls," Mike Felton, UK head high
alpha equities, F&C Asset Management
HW: I shouldn’t predict that markets are going DOWN after Monday?
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All investors should be aware of EXTREME market risk over the next two
weeks. Accordingly,
All WSNW subscribers should be preparing their dream buy list for October
28 on.
TRADERS: After Monday, we prefer to play the short side.
INVESTORS: STAY LOOSE AND HIGHLY LIQUID UNTIL GOOD NEWS, A REAL MARKET DROP
OR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, WHICHEVER COMES FIRST.
Begin preparing your dream Christmas stock buy list.
KEYDATES: OCTOBER 19, 20, 21
DJIA:
10,000 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 1900 PIVOT
SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003 SPX
1111.
08/13/2004: DJIA
9825 NASDAQ 1757 SPX 1064
FAIR VALUE: DJIA <9660, NASDAQ
<1750, GOLD = 414
DIJA:
3 ~ FV 0 UV; 4 sport 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the risk
potential in October is very high.
2. We are NOT buying stocks this week!
3. 7 UP Declares “The Only Way to Go is UP” is this also true for the
stock of Cadbury (CSG)?
7 UP, the official beverage of the ANSARI X PRIZE, is offering consumers
the first free ticket into space. “At 7 UP, we want to make space travel
a reality for everyone, not just for millionaires," said Randy Gier, EVP/CMO,
Cadbury Schweppes Americas Beverages [CSAB]. " The ANSARI X PRIZE is following
in the footsteps of over 100 aviation prizes offered between 1905 and 1935
that created today's multibillion-dollar air transportation industry. The
winner gets a $10 million prize and a spectacular 5-foot trophy "The
best way to predict the future is to create it yourself," said Dr. Peter
H. Diamandis, Chairman of the X PRIZE Foundation. "My mission and that of
the X PRIZE Foundation has been to create a future in which all of us can
travel into space.” According to Steven Jarmon, VP of Marketing Resources,
CSAB: "7 UP has a long history of firsts starting with the first lemon lime
soft drink which began the uncola revolution. We are so thrilled to be offering
another first with the first free ticket into space." Despite such
boldness, I find CSG stock too sweet, although it might hold some attraction
for conservative investors.
4. "Investors seem to be as confused about the direction of the stock market
as voters are about the outcome of next month's election."
Dick Dickson, market analyst, Lowry Research
HW: Not so much confused as of two minds.
“On November 8, transiting Saturn turns retrograde while forming an exact
conjunction with Fannie Mae's Mars. The preciseness of this link promises
major trouble for the mortgage company. Since transiting Saturn also hits
the U.S. Pluto, the fallout will likely have widespread, national repercussions.
One possible scenario: the end of the real estate bubble.”
Wolfstar, editor, Newscope
HW: Well, I have forecast it to “end” before Saturn leaves Cancer, so the
clock is still ticking.
"I'm looking for the market to work higher next week. Up two, down one, take
a nap and do it again. Overall, earnings are going to be good, but if a company
comes in with disappointing earnings its stock is going to be taken out behind
the barn and spanked."
Al Goldman, chief market strategist, AG Edwards
HW: B&D Investing! Should be especially popular in New York’s West
Village!
5. Why
a fund executive says the party's over
Investing:
One Eye on Drug Stocks, the Other on Election Day
Why the rude
oil prices?
6. READER: I saw the Presidential debate recently. Kerry said he would take
from the top 1% and give to the poor and the middle class. Just the opposite
of what the president has done. Some of the other analysts I use say that
the big broker companies who now control about 50% of the stock market will
try to keep the prices up in order to help Bush. If so, there should be a
substantial fall after the election? And then probably a nice lift of the
market?
HW: Many big brokers are hoping for a Bush victory, as they love the idea
of privatizing social security.
Should Kerry win and markets fall, it would be a good opportunity for a contrarian
buy. Conversely, should Busy win and markets rise, it would be an excellent
time to short the US dollar and buy gold.
For more on the effects of a Bush or Kerry victory, read our web post work
in progress: Investing for
the 2004 US Election.
READER: I am selling all my long positions and going short for the rest of
my life....
HW: That action seems a bit extreme to me. However, selling some of your
stock holdings that you don’t wish to hold into 2005, shorting or buying
put protection over the next two weeks [October 11-25] could be prudent.
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: What happens with IHI, is everybody going to the exit door and moving
to other micro caps?
HW: No. You can also see some smart money buying coming in. The smart money
on IHI clearly accumulates on weakness, i.e. when it is being dumped, as
I have recommended recently.
PS We have two new strong microcap buys for the annual Winter small cap rally.
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May 13-15, 2005
Eleventh Astrology
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