WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful investors and traders"   
 
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: OCTOBER 11, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. OCTOBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS

1. THE OCTOBER SCARE IS VERY REAL THIS YEAR
Looking at the risk/reward of stock market investments over the next two weeks, I continue to strongly advise: PLAY IT SAFE. There are four chances for a three digit Dow decline this month.
NEED I SAY MORE?

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: ASTROFINANCIAL MUSINGS
Did Jupiter leaving Virgo have any effect? Ask Merck (MRK) shareholders.
What about Jupiter entering Libra? Ask Sotheby's (BID) shareholders.
I wonder. Maybe there is something to this astrology stuff! J

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I will be a guest on the Money Matters Financial Network Host:  Gary Goldberg Monday, October 11, 2004 Time: 10:40am ET. To find a local radio affiliate station in NY area, click About MMFN.
To Access a live Webcast 10:06 am to 11:00 am EST, click  Listen Live
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TRADERS:  Wednesday October 13 is a Solar Eclipse.
INVESTORS: STAY LOOSE AND HIGHLY LIQUID UNTIL GOOD NEWS, A REAL MARKET DROP OR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, WHICHEVER COMES FIRST.

KEYDATES:        OCTOBER 13, 15
DJIA:                   10,000 SUPPORT?
NASDAQ:           1910 SUPPORT?
XOI:                    Repeat Trading Sell 725 OB
XAU:                   Investing Distribution 105-110 or place GTC 98 Stop

SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD:        DJIA 10453   NASDAQ 2003 SPX 1111.
08/13/2004:                 DJIA   9825   NASDAQ 1757 SPX 1064
FAIR VALUE:            DJIA  <9660, NASDAQ  <1750, GOLD = 414
DIJA:                          3 ~ FV 0 UV; Only 3 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external risk potential is very high.

2. “With Gold back to $425 and the XAU above 100, we are now recommending booking first profits or placing GTC (good till cancel) stop losses on some intermediate term gold investing positions. Several gold stocks, e.g. BHP, RIO, PDG have reached, or exceeded, our second 2004 price targets. While I believe gold can rise to 450 (and would quickly after the election, should GWB be re-elected), it is time to book some strong profits. Short term, gold is slightly overvalued, while Oil is likely to drop shortly. However, if one is holding gold primarily as a portfolio hedge against the US dollar, there is obviously little need to rush to the exit just yet.”
WSNW subscribers may wish to revisit our premium post S: Mining Stocks 2004/2005 for more.

Given Canada is appropriately now everyone’s favorite G7 country as we have forecast, I will be in Montreal October 13-15 doing more research and visiting potential new corporate clients. I plan an update on our premium Canada post shortly thereafter.

3. Japanese Government to Sell Gold Coins to Make Up for National Debt
Are things worse in Japan than most people think?  Isn’t it a classic bad omen when one sells the family silverware? Well, the Japanese government has decided to sell 32, 683 gold coins minted during the end of the 19th century and the 20th century to cover up its financial deficits. As the sale may adversely affect the antique coin market, the Finance Ministry will set up a panel to determine prices of the coins and other terms with the aim of minimizing the effect. Proceeds from the sale will be brought into the ministry's general account. In lieu of this disturbing news, Wall Street, Next Week subscribers may wish to visit our newly revised premium post: S: Japan 2004/2005. An excerpt follows:

“Short term, Japan is bound to be affected by the weakening US economy.  Given this fact is not yet widely understood, nor built into most economic models, we continue to avoid Japan short term.  However, intermediate term, Japan will out perform, astrologically speaking.  Our plan is to begin buying the 10,000 to 10,500 testing zone.
Please note we have added Trend Micro (TMIC) and taken out Matsushita (MC) from our Japan 8 Portfolio….”

4. “There was such a big move in small-cap stocks, with investors willing to take on risk and opportunity, but now they want brand names that are trading a discount in comparison.”
Brian G Belski market strategist, Piper Jaffray
HW: Until the annual December/January rally small cap, that could be true. Still aggressive contrarian investors should be ready to buy select small cap losers, who will be small cap winners intermediate term.

"The fact that the weakness in jobs creation in the States was not materially affected by hurricanes - that's the message that's going to go home this weekend with investors, especially south of the border. It's not good news."
Andrew Pyle, senior economist, Scotiabank
HW: If US voters vote the true state of their pocketbook, then Bush would lose 98% to 2%.

"Individual investors who prospered during the stock market's historic boom have now experienced major declines in equities and are looking for other places to put a portion of their money. As they approach retirement, millions of baby boomers are moving more and more of their assets from equity investments to fixed income investments. There is no doubt that the corporate bond market will only grow in size and in importance."
Doug Shulman. President, NASD Markets
HW: Yes, corporate bonds will be increasingly on our radar from 2005 on.

5. What the Election Means for Investors

Smoke signals from the Fed?
“In the last two days, three important Federal Reserve officials have given speeches that look like they are intended to CHANGE the prevailing view on Wall Street that the Fed is on an inexorable march toward raising short-term interest rates.”

$50-plus oil drags on economy

6. READER: Have you predicted who will become the president of USA?
HW: At the current time, I am too biased (anti-Bush) to be objective, which is the first rule of successful forecasting.  Let me say that I believe the October 13th, may be the deciding day. Kerry CAN win, but will he?  He has my vote and hopes. 

READER: I intend to move Norwegian money to an Internet broker going into USD. But you say USD is on its way down. Could it be a solution to short USD against euro in futures?
HW: This depends on your time frame.  Obviously the kroner is continuing to benefit from current high Oil prices. The Euro is currently in a trading range of 121 to 124, with a breakout possible to 126+ next year. With the Euro near its midpoint of 121.50 you could hedge ½ of this money with shorting USD against Euros and most likely receive enough protection.  However, given US markets are the best in the world for trading, hopefully you will make more money trading than the probable 4%-8% US dollar depreciation.
[Note: As platinum subscribers know, our year end trading target on the Euro remains 126.]

READER: I would not be surprised if oil was going to 25 dollar a barrel after china gets unlocked from the dollar, but the USA will still get hurt economically.
HW: Yes, a fair market would warrant oil at or under $30, but given the weakening US dollar, current hopes are just for $35. As for this doing serious damage to the US economy, you betcha!

7. READER: You continue to recommend accumulation for IHI, I guess 2004 will end the same as other years for IHI, disappointing?
HW: That is hardly my bet at this time!

READER: I've never doubted that the folks with the plan had sincere hopes of producing a fine product but one can only hold one's breath for so long before determining that, perhaps, the people with the dream lacked the skills to get it rolling. It happens all the time that a good idea hits the ditch. Convince me please.
HW: IHI is highly unusual microcap not only in its promise and technology but with a lot of cosmic fortune, i.e. they continually get more opportunities even when missing others. I believe the pride and stick-to-it qualities of IHI’s president, Roger, plus the latest efforts of the new sales team, continues to make this an extremely attractive risk/reward microcap. I plan on putting more of my personal money where my mouth is on this one!
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