Wall Street Next Week OCTOBER 4, 2004
WALL STREET,
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WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK: OCTOBER 4, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. OCTOBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS
1. ITS GETTING TIME FOR THE ANNUAL OCTOBER SCARE
Markets tend to alternate between periods of greed and fear. October markets
are usually not bullish, but rather fearful. STAY LOOSE AND HIGHLY LIQUID
UNTIL GOOD NEWS, A REAL MARKET DROP OR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST.
STREET CHEERLEADING
Q4 2004, Standard & Poor's is estimating a 15.5% earnings gain for the
S&P 500, a 21.5% increase for 2004. 12-month operating P/E
is 17.9 vs 27.8 in March 2000. "With earnings- per-share expected to
create a record high for 2004 and the market still off 27% from its March
2000 highs, aggregate P/E ratios have become more reasonable," says Howard
Silverblatt, Equity Market Analyst at Standard & Poor's. "Investors
are now paying much less for growth, as P/Es are more in line with historical
values."
HW: Still, as a cosmic value player, this does not yet represent real value.
Time will tell which of us is more right.
MORE IMF CHEERLEADING
The global economy should register its strongest growth in three decades
in 2004 despite soaring oil prices according to the IMF’s latest World Economic
Outlook. "This is a soft patch, not a sink hole," the IMF's chief economist,
Raghuram Rajan, said of the late spring slowdown. The IMF predicted the United
States will see its economy grow by 4.3%, assuming oil prices average $37.25
a barrel this year and next. Still even with oil prices in the $50 a barrel
range, "we don't think the effect will be huge," said Rajan.
HW: Well Rajan I walk to work, so the direct effect of Oil prices hardly
affects me except when I fly, use electricity, heat or A/C my home, eat or
buy goods that require transport, etc. I suppose if I spend even more time
online, I will hardly notice. Still, I cannot but wonder about your unwarranted
(in my view) optimism. Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said "If oil prices
get too high, then consumer spending will slow down and the overall economy
will slow down." I am somewhat surprised you don’t agree with her (and
me).
COSMIC NOTE: THE THIRD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE OCTOBER 13TH OCCURS ON A SOLAR
ECLIPSE- IT MAY BE THE KEY TO THE 2004 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
TRADERS: DAY TRADE, DO NOT POSITION TRADE UNTIL OCTOBER 13TH.
INVESTORS: STAY LOOSE AND HIGHLY LIQUID UNTIL GOOD NEWS, A REAL MARKET DROP
OR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, WHICHEVER COMES FIRST.
KEYDATES: OCTOBER 5, 13
DJIA:
10,000 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE?
NASDAQ: 1900 PIVOT
SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003 SPX
1111.
08/13/2004: DJIA
9825 NASDAQ 1757 SPX 1064
FAIR VALUE: DJIA <9640, NASDAQ
<1750, GOLD > 410
DIJA:
2 ~ FV 1 UV; Only 3 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the October
risk potential remains high.
2. I had the pleasure of attending the UBS Global Life Sciences Conference
this past week at the Grand Hyatt in NYC which featured nearly 200 leading
companies in the life sciences industry. I was impressed by the presentations
of four companies, which are likely to be included in our potential buy list
in 2005. They are: Enzo Biochem (ENZ), Bausch & Lomb (BOL), Antares Pharma
(AIS) and Guilford Pharmaecuticals (GLFD). I also added two stocks to our
Health Sciences Watch list: Dade Behring (DADE) and Vital Signs (VITL). However,
given the dramatic effect the upcoming US presidential election may have on
the health care field, I plan to wait at least until after November 2 and
perhaps as late as Q1 or Q2 2004 to act.
“September 24, Jupiter left Virgo, no longer bestowing its cosmic favor
to many traditional healthcare companies. In addition, a Democratic election
victory is highly likely to shakeup the health care sector. We plan to wait
until after the election to make our 2005 healthcare sector stock decisions.
In general, in Q4 2004, we look to accumulate upon weakness, both value stocks
that will benefit from ever more increasing demands of cost containment and
select Biotechs that continue to be blessed by Uranus in Pisces.”
WSNW subscribers can read more at our updated premium post: S: Healthcare Stocks
2004/2005.
Note: I plan another update to this post after the Rodman & Renshaw
Healthcare conference the end of October.
I repeat our August 23 GOOGLE (GOOG) forecast: In November, GOOG will be
trading below Friday’s close of 108. It has both difficult astrological aspects
in October plus increasing future competition, e.g. New Company Starts
Up a Challenge to Google. Given its October 1 rally above 130, Options players
may wish to buy the out of the money November 125 (WE) or November 120 (WD)
option, that would double or triple should our prediction come true. Of course,
I don’t recommend betting the house on it, perhaps just enough to redo the
master bathroom in marble….
3. The
Grapevine Is Whispering; It Says Mondavi
Robert Mondavi [MOND] plans to sell its winery in Napa and its high-end
wine business to focus on its inexpensive "lifestyle wines. "The Robert Mondavi
Corporation said it would focus on its inexpensive wines like Woodbridge and
sell its namesake winery as well as its high-end ventures. Since they are
selling their family jewels, I see no reason to hold their stock. I would
distribute it now and drink the profits with a better vintage wine.
4. "The market is building in an exceptionally large risk premium for some
sort of catastrophic event possibly before the election because based on our
models, earnings would have to drop 35 percent in order to justify current
levels, which is worse than the Great Depression."
Edgar Peters, chief investment officer, Pan Agora
HW: But don’t THEY say the market is ALWAYS right? Hmmm.
“Hold on to your hats because inflation's coming. Gold will provide investors
with a natural hedge position. The low inflation numbers coming out of the
U.S. are starting to look farcical. How can continued, elevated raw-material
prices not impact the cost of fabricated and value-added products?''
Jonathan Battershill, analyst, Hartleys
HW: Easy, by the use of fuzzy math.
“Once we get closer to the election, once energy prices begin to cool off
a little bit, consumers will feel a little bit better about the pressure on
their budgets. It's a temporary setback.''
Christine Callies, chief market strategist, Bessemer Trust Co.
HW: I agree. I don’t see it lasting more than two to three years, tops.
5. Bull
market close to 2nd anniversary
“So the good news is that investors can make money in a world of low market
returns. The bad news is they might be forced to do so for many years to come,
if one other historical pattern -- the tendency of the market to post sharp
gains for 16 years, then to muddle along for 16 years -- holds as some analysts
think it will.”
Investing: Europeans Streamline. Will the Market Notice?
“Serge Pizem, head of European equities at AXA Investment Managers in Paris,
said European stocks were trading at less than 12 times earnings for next
year, based on a consensus of analysts' estimates. The comparable multiple
for American stocks is 17, he said. "The difference in price-earnings multiples
is quite big," Mr. Pizem said, adding that valuations have "definitely not"
taken account of changes made by many European companies.”
Weak stocks trouble for Bush?
Health of the stock market has been good predictor of election.
6. READER: RE: $STAR PICKS AND PANS:
Are the values on a closing basis?
HW: Yes and no. If you are an active day trader who is watching a
screen constantly, then it can be either. If you are more a positional and/or
not watching a screen, then it is on a closing basis.
2. Re: TALK: 9/23 Entry 5.25:You have entered it, since the course
is now under 5.25? Obviously it’s the opposite for shorts: The price must
go above entry price?
HW: Yes and Yes. However, these are approximate numbers for WSNW readers
who don’t have their own technical pricing system. Those that do, can use
either our numbers to enter and exit, their own, or a combination of
both, e.g. ½ at one ½ at another.
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: All these hurricanes should be good for our company [IHITF]? Or
is that too macabre?
HW: After four record hurricanes, there is obviously greater interest in
the company. I would not be surprised to see a future press release with some
good southern news in the not so distant future.
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