Wall Street Next Week August 30, 2004
WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful investors
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WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK: SEPTEMBER 6, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR
AND TRADER
1. SEPTEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1. BIFOCAL MARKETS: THE CUP IS HALF EMPTY/ FULL
Spin it as they may, the economy is not only slower than many Wall Streeters
believe, but it will get slightly worse before it gets markedly better. The
only real question is WHETHER INVESTORS REALIZE THIS BEFORE OR AFTER NOVEMBER
2! Then again, markets love to climb a Wall of Worry. Consumer confidence
continues to decline mostly due to employment concerns and higher energy
prices. And if your children were spending more and earning less, wouldn’t
you be worried?
Our bottom line: Short term distribute Nasdaq, maintain high cash levels
and re-accumulate gold upon weakness.
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: PAX AMERICANA FOREVER OR JUST UNTIL 2005/2006?
High foreign ownership of U.S. debt is "a healthy situation" and the dollar
will remain the world's preferred reserve currency, according to Treasury
Secretary John Snow. "Other countries buy our debt because America has the
deepest, most liquid debt markets in the world," he said. "They do it, frankly,
not because they love us but because they get a good return on it."
Then why is a lot of smart money still accumulating US Companies that would
benefit from a weak dollar? Asked about the likelihood the euro would
displace the dollar as the world's preferred reserve currency, Snow said
"I have no great concern about that." Yet many global bankers have a 2005
Euro target above 125.
I report; You decide.
SATURDAY is the third anniversary of 911; Reading our original 911 post may be appropriate.
TRADERS: Nasdaq top for next two weeks is in: Trend follow drops and sell
any rallies.
INVESTORS: Be ready for a probable end of September rally.
KEYDATES: September 7, 9
DJIA:
10,000 Floor, 10350 Resistance
NASDAQ: PIVOT
1850
Australian$: TRADING
BUY
US$:
SELL ON STRENGTH
SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003 SPX
1111.
FAIR VALUE: DJIA <9600, NASDAQ
<1750, GOLD > 408
DIJA: 2@ FV 0 UV;
Only 3 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external
risk potential is very high.
2. “Dividend rich Dow Bells SBC Communications (SBC) and Verizon (VZ) have
outperformed as we forecast. Yet overall, we don’t expect great profit
growth in H2 2004 for most of the Telecom sector, just increasing competition.
Even Blue chips like Cisco (CSCO) and Nokia (NOK) are likely to continue
to under perform intermediate term optimistic sales projections. M&A
action is likely to be the major stock price driver. The new hot key application
is Voice over IP (VOIP). Accordingly, we are watching with interest
three small/microcaps: UAMC, VOIP and YAKC.”
Wall Street subscribers can read more at our latest update of S: AFUND 12 TELECOM
Stocks.
Before October 5 we will be updating most premium silver posts.
3. Suicides in Japan surged 7.1% to an all-time high last year of 34,427
- the highest number on record, due to debts, slow business, unemployment
and other financial woes. "It's severe," Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
said. "We will continue to make efforts to improve our economic situation."
Rival South Korea suicides driven by economic hardship also climbed to the
highest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Driven by debt, lost
love, terminal disease and other miseries of life, 13,005 South Koreans killed
themselves last year, compared with 12,458 in 1998. What does this
mean to overseas investors? First, I see no rush to buy these Asian markets
just yet; It may be wiser to wait until Q4 2004 lows to buy into either the
Nikkei 225 or KOSPI. Second, it may pay to watch Japanese pharmaceutical
companies such as Eisai (ESALY).
4. “We've seen the best of technology earnings across the board. At points
like this you avoid technology, they're neither value nor growth stocks.''
Stephen Docherty, team member, Aberdeen Asset Management
HW: That is if you are a rational investor.
"The market's focus is going to the implications of what the tech and retail
numbers mean."
Tony Dwyer, equity market strategist, FTN Midwest Research
HW: It means the economy is [far] slower than many believe.
"Ironically, if the Fed were not to tighten in September, it would be damaging
to Bush and beneficial to Kerry."
William Dudley, chief economist, Goldman, Sachs
HW: Heaven forbid!
5. Get
ready for the fall season
“To the economy, energy, interest rates, the elections and terrorism, add
one more uncertainty for investors to ponder these days: September.”
Fundamentally:
Don't Run From That Portfolio. Tweak It.
“as interest rates begin to rise, stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios
are likely to be hit hardest. So he is underweighting the technology sector,
which has the highest average P/E ratio in the S. & P. 500: 40.1, based
on 2003 operating earnings.”
Federated's
Lehman Shuns U.S. Stocks as His Fund Beats S&P 500
Steven Lehman is avoiding the U.S. stock market in his $1.7 billion Federated
Market Opportunity Fund because he says equity prices may be lower 10 years
from now.
6. READER: What could tank the market ahead of the November elections?
HW: At least four possible events could alter current economic fantasies:
1) Terrorism
2) US Dollar drop
3) October Earnings disappointments
4) China hard landing
READER: I tend to agree 100 % with Ned Schmidt, Editor Value View Gold Report
that US Equity Markets are in for a LONG BEAR PHASE. This may last till the
end of 2005 or early 2006. I strongly feel that from Dec'04 / Jan'05 to Mar'05
the US Equity Markets will be in a BAD BEAR PHASE. Do you also endorse this
view, Henry?
HW: I believe this will be true for the economy, but may or not be true for
the stock market. I do believe that $450 gold is a distinct possibility for
Q4 2004 and unfortunately, 500 is possible for 2005/2006, especially if Bush
is re-elected.
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