Wall Street Next Week August 30, 2004

WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful investors and traders"

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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: AUGUST 30, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. SEPTEMBER ASTRODATES
2. SEPTEMBER MARKETS
3. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB

1. 9/02 Mercury SD
9/14 New Moon 10:29 am ET
9/22 Sun enters Libra 12:30 pm ET
9/28 Harvest Full Moon 9:09 am ET

2. NEXT WEEK COULD BE A WILD ROLLERCOASTER RIDE
For months financial markets have been beset by numerous worries such as terrorism, slowing US and Chinese growth, higher oil prices and interest rates. Next week we have the Republican National Convention, with Bush speaking on the same day Mercury changes direction, followed on Friday by a key job report. All this happens while most Wall Streeters are on vacation! Daily moves up and down 100 points intraday are possible, but mean nothing. Many leading fund managers are keeping relatively high levels of cash. We continue to recommend the same strategy, while noting a strong rally is possible circa September 2,3, external events permitting..
Our advice: Enjoy your vacation and place buy and/or sell orders near “ideal” prices for entering and/or exiting intermediate positions you want or don’t want to hold into October.

OIL PRICE SLIP
Markets advanced on the relief that oil prices remained below the $50 a barrel level threatened last week. Dealers said prices fell on profit taking by hedge funds and signs that producer companies have sought to lock in high prices by selling forward months on the crude derivatives market [WSNW Subscribers, no doubt!]. Many in the industry still believe high oil prices may not be taken for granted in 2005. For example, the projected price of the Mexican oil for export should be budgeted at just US$22 per barrel, according to many Mexican lawmakers and economists. Still, few speculators see Oil returning below $30 anytime soon. Economically, even $35-$40 Oil will (and should) remain a concern.

“While oil futures are massively overbought, the demand-supply situation points to sustained upward pressure," Anais Faraj, Nomura Bank
High oil prices are raising questions about the sustainability of global economic growth well beyond the transportation sector. Many traders believe the current drop in the oil rally is simply a consolidation phase. Those more politically cynical have been trading gasoline short into the Republican National Convention. They expect to again for a projected drop into the first week of November, but this time it would be marking a potential intermediate term bottom.

Bottom Line:
If you believe Bush will lose in November, begin investigating alternative energy companies, which will rally on a Kerry Victory.
If you believe Bush will win, accumulate Canadian energy on weakness.

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: NO COMMENT NECESSARY
The number of personal bankruptcies is reaching for record highs as borrowers struggle to cope with growing mortgage and credit card debts PLUS More Americans Were Uninsured and Poor in 2003, Census Finds.

Note: There may be no Sept 6th Wall Street, Next Week issue, depending on the weather in upstate New York before the Labor Day weekend.

TRADERS: Every day can be wild!
INVESTORS: Pre-Holiday trading is often an excellent time to enter/exit intermediate term positions. An early September rally is likely, if we have not yet already seen most it!

KEYDATES:       August 30, 31, September 2, 3
SPX:                    1000 SUPPORT? 1111 RESISTANCE?
NASDAQ:           S1 1850 S2 1830 S3 1750 1860 PIVOT, R1 1880 R2 1900 R3 1920
GOLD:             405 PIVOT
OIL:                    $40 SUPPORT $43 PIVOT R1 45 R2 48 R3 50

SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD:    DJIA 10453   NASDAQ 2003 SPX 1111.
FAIR VALUE:        DJIA <9600, NASDAQ <1750, GOLD > 408
DIJA:                    1@ FV, 0 UV; Only 3 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external risk potential is very high.

3. Our August Stock of the Month Club pick was emailed to WSNW subscribers. We will be posting it on our website later in September. In October we will be doing our biannual update of our premium investing posts. This week, Wall Street subscriber can review our latest update of S: 12 Stocks for Uncertain Times: H2 2004-2005 and S: Mining Stocks 2004.

4. At the August Cape Town Fashion Week, some designers in the annual Riches of Africa gold jewellery competition took a literal approach, while others concentrated on a more metaphoric interpretation of the theme "Fire". Shelagh Blackman, Anglogold Ashanti (AU) communications manager, said they run the Riches of Africa competition to grow the market for gold products. "We want to show that gold can be a fashion statement. We're getting South Africans to design innovatively in gold…. We are really seeing evidence that the jewellery designers are crossing the boundary between jewellery and fashion," Blackman said.

“Given there an increasing possibility for $450 gold by year end, we are adding Anglogold Ashanti (AU) to our buy list on sector weakness, especially if gold drops below $400 to try to retest 390.”
WSNW subscribers can read more at our premium post: S: Mining Stocks 2004.

5. "People are quite nervous about earnings going forward and the likely amount of profit warnings."
Adrian von Tiggelen, director of European equities, ING Investment Management
HW: As well they should be.

"The market does not like uncertainty. I think investors are worried. ... It's a pretty close race."
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist, S&P US equity research
HW: This could change by October.

"U.S. equities are in for a long, long bear market that will take out the bear-market low for the Nasdaq."
Ned Schmidt, editor, Value View Gold Report
HW: A good thing to remember in any upcoming early September rally.

6. Realistic rewards.
The return on equities over the next decade is likely to be much lower than most investors expect.

Fewer stocks, more cash.
"…we've moved down our stock allocation from 65 percent a few months ago to 50 percent." Of the remaining 50 percent, he advises, 40 percent should go into cash.”

IMF worried about China hard landing.
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