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WALL STREET, NEXT
WEEK: AUGUST 23, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR
AND TRADER
1. AUGUST MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS
BM (BULL MARKET) OR BS RALLY?
US stocks rose amid investor confidence that earnings and economic growth
will withstand record oil prices?
QUIZ: Markets were up last week because of
a) Oil prices b) Google IPO c) Options Expiration d) early buyers for the
post RNC (Republican National Convention) rally and/or e) the infamous “plunge
team?
Unfortunately, WSNW readers may have to wait 20 years for the answer unless
my report is declassified sooner. J
MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC TRUTH
· There is lots of sidelined cash that may come
into play as we approach the seasonally strong November-December period.
· There is BOTH inflation and deflation, giving
rise to potential stagflation dangers.
· Hurricanes, like war, are “good” for business,
but do NOT increase a country’s wealth.
· John Chambers (Cisco’s president), not Alan Greenspan,
is more right about the economy when he says his customers are cautious about
the future. Some companies like Dell will continue to outperform fundamentally,
while others like Hewlett Packard will continue to struggle in Q4 2004. In
other words, it will remain a trader’s stock picker’s market and not an investing
“buy and hold” index environment until November.
MARKET ADVICE: Recent market action has reduced support below Dow 9800
and Nasdaq 1750.
Be prepared to buy strength (momentum), but not weakness: DO NOT RUSH to
buy the next dip on “good” or bad news!
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: HIGH OIL PRICES
The
Calgary Sun: High crude here to stay
We won’t comment on the relationship between oil prices and the stock market
last week. But anyone who actually believed that markets were up on Friday
(or earlier in the week) because “Oil falls from its highs after missing
$50” or that “Oil sets new record on optimism over world economy” needs a
serious reality check. As for high oil prices, so far only two Asian countries
are talking conservation.
It would be VERY easy to drop oil to $40 within one week IF:
1) Bush stopped adding to (but not selling) the US strategic Oil reserve
until November, while encouraging other countries to do the same. and
2) Oil companies worldwide were “encouraged” to hedge ALL September, October
and November production ASAP. Ah, if only I were the president’s astrologer…..
PS World Bank chief economist Francois Bourguignon stated Friday that the
oil price ought eventually to return to an "equilibrium price" of around
$32 a barrel, but it was uncertain how long this would take. He could hire
a financial astrologer if he really wanted to know, don’t you think?
TRADERS: Option unwinding Monday and Tuesday.
INVESTORS: Keep your powder dry for our August Stock of the Month Club picks.
KEYDATES: AUGUST 23, 27
DJIA:
10,000 Support/Resistance?
NASDAQ: 1830 PIVOT
GOOG:
S1 85 S2 95 S3 100 R1 108 R2 115 R3 120
OIL:
45 Support 48 R1 50 R2 52 R3
GOLD:
FIRST INVESTING DISTRIBUTE/STOP BY RNC.
SIDEWAYS Market Marker Sentiment: Initial Worry, then Rally, ending Flat.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003 SPX
1111.
FAIR VALUE: DJIA <9600, NASDAQ
<1750, GOLD > 407
DIJA:
1@ FV, 0 UV; Only 3 offer 4%+ Dividends.
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external
risk potential is very high.
2. August 20th P/e’s for the big Internuts were AMZN 60, EBAY 85, YHOO 112
and GOOG 149!
GOOG positives include: Profits will increase, future new buying when
joining HHH & QQQ.
GOOG negatives include: Large insider selling overhang, First Trade horoscope
& more Competition.
"After all, the idea Google is a company that should be owned to give to
one's grandchildren is a fairly ludicrous one."
Dan Chung, president, Fred Alger Management
HW: I agree. GOOG’s First Trade Horoscope Data at 11:55.32 August 19, 2004100
shares at 98.66 is both an intermediate AND long term Sell!
AFUND FORECAST 1: In November, GOOG will be trading below Friday’s
close of 108.
AFUND FORECAST 2: GOOG will trade below its offering price of 85 in
2005.
Peter S. Fader, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania,
said buying these [HHH] stocks "is no different than betting on what the
temperature is going to be in Tuscaloosa tomorrow." He is right, and that
is why I recommend studying astro-meteorology if betting on weather futures!
3. The
Sporty Cars of the 50s commemorative postage stamps featuring the 1952
Nash Healey, 1953 Chevrolet Corvette, 1953 Studebaker Starliner, 1954 Kaiser
Darrin, and a 1955 Ford Thunderbird, will be issued in 2005. These stamps
will highlight the sporty look of American cars with the innovative looks
of European sports cars American GIs favored upon their return from World
War II. "We understand the power our stamps have in helping to celebrate
our American history and culture -- in this case, the innovative brilliance
of our automotive technology and design," said Anita Bizzotto, Chief Marketing
Officer, USPS. "They will be a reminder of the unique style and culture of
the 1950s." "America's love affair with the automobile stems, in a large
part, from its use as a form of personal expression," said Sandra Kasky,
co-chairman of the 54th Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance international gathering
of automotive enthusiasts. "We are what we drive.”
Since 1775, the USPS has connected friends, families, neighbors and businesses.
With annual revenues of more than $68 billion, it is the world's leading
provider of mail and delivery services, delivering more than 46% of the world's
mail volume. Given its large market share, I may be interested in trading
the IPO. Until then, US automakers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) are likely
to continue to lose market share to Asian car manufacturers who understand
that high Oil prices BITE. Also as bank (with almost 2/3 of their profits
from finance rather than manufacturing), their profits are likely to suffer
as interest rates rise in Q4 2004.Sadly, the global hedge BUY TM & HMC/
Sell F & GM is likely to remain profitable until October.
4. "It (oil) is the focus of every trader and every strategic investor."
Jack Bouroudjian, principal, Brewer Investment
HW: Hmmm.
"Our tactical advice until the air clears is to stay out."
Allen Sinai, chief global economist, Decision Economics
HW: No question that a post November 2004 Bush or Kerry stock market (world)
will be different in 2005.
“Stocks go up when earnings go up, and dividends never go up unless earnings
go up. Focusing on dividends is a very productive way to save for our retirement.”
Tom Cameron, manager Eastern Point Advisors Rising Dividend Growth Fund
HW: I like your “eat well, sleep well’ investing philosophy.
5. Terror
May Be Your Portfolio's Security
Peter
Siris' Guerrilla Investing: Counting on common causes
The 10 best income
stocks
6. READER: What do you mean about "light up Gold"? Does that mean sell some
gold?
HW: It means we are beginning to sell some gold. In the beginning of the
month, we recommended doubling gold positions. End of August, we recommend
reducing 25% to 150%, rather than 200%. At the moment, we recommend
buying back gold puts and taking first profits in physical gold. The XAU
is now 95; it will either rise to 100 (98) or drop to 92. If 98-100,
I would begin selling gold shares there. I might start today [8/20],
but more likely, will wait for the end of August and the end of the Republican
National Convention (RNC) to sell, given its role as portfolio insurance.
However, I would place a trailing stop in for 25% to 33% of your gold shares
now.
READER: Here's a question for you. Planning a trip to France in September
2005. Should I buy euros now, or wait? Or, put in hypothetical terms,
how strong do you think the dollar will be in a year from now vs. the euro?
Hard question, I know. But you've always had a good record re: predicting
currency markets.
PS Hope all is well with you. I'm feeling for the first time that Kerry may
actually have a chance - 4 more years of Bush and I'll be buying property
in Canada.
HW: I am not sure how to answer you. My personal preference would be to buy
1/3 in Euro’s around 122OB, 1/3 in Gold between $395-400 and 1/3 in C$ around
C$ 0.75. Alternately, you could wait until after the election, and
if Bush wins, convert it ALL to C$ and take your September 2005 vacation
in your new Canadian home!
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: What is your date of birth? We are trying to determine the
your date of vindication for IHI off your chart. The date that you
are vindicated will be the date that IHI moves sharply up.
HW: I look at Roger’s chart, as he will be even happier than me when it happens.
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