WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful investors and traders"
  
 
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: AUGUST 2, 2004
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. AUGUST MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS

INVESTING RISK: 5% UP vs. 10%+ DOWN
Standard & Poor's Equity Research has cut its year-end target for the S&P500 index (SPX) from 1210 to 1150 (7/30 closed 1101), citing the impact of high oil prices and the threat of terrorist attacks. "With U.S. rates heading higher and 2005 earnings heading lower, the outlook is clearly uncertain." 

While it may be already time for the first of 3 H2 2004 investing buys, I am awaiting Monday’s market before deciding whether we will next see Dow 10,400 or 9800.  As a trader, I prefer the risk/reward of the latter.  Even ignoring the many external risks, at best it will be a mixed picture fundamentally; looking ahead towards 2005, the market will be pressured both by slowing profit growth and steadily rising interest rates.
The Bottom line is a trading sideways market with unusually high Bull risk. We advise strong investor due diligence in preparing buy lists, the first of which is no later than September 2.

BLACK GOLD
With the Oil market going through the roof, OPEC will study proposals to increase the range of oil prices from 22-28 US$ to 28-35 US$ per barrel at its Sept. 15 meeting. How will this affect the price of politically sensitive gasoline? Tom Kloza, director of Oil Price Information Service, believes gasoline prices will likely remain high for a while. "The one thing you can bet on is that the cyclical factors that sent gas prices up in 2004 will come back in early 2005.” He added, "Now the lowest (gasoline) prices will be, interestingly, right around election day."
HW: Wow, what an interesting “coincidence”!

HYDE PARK SOAP BOX: ITS ONLY MONEY
The U.S. budget deficit will hit a record $445 billion this year. “The figure is well above the 2003 shortfall of $374 billion, the prior record in dollar terms.” At the same time, another government Report revives debate on jobs: “One in five Americans laid off from a long-term job in the last three years was still unemployed in January, and most who had found jobs were paid less than they were before.”
With shades of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” Iraq victory claim, the US economy is far weaker than generally believed. I.R.S. Says Americans' Income Shrank for 2 Consecutive Years. “The overall income Americans reported to the government shrank for two consecutive years after the Internet stock market bubble burst in 2000, the first time that has effectively happened since the modern tax system was introduced during World War II”. Adjusted for inflation, the income of all Americans fell 9.2% from 2000 to 2002. While in  the corporate suite, “total pay for the top 200 chief executives plummeted to an average of $7.9 million in 2002 from $12.5 million in 2000.”
Unbeknownst to the public, my private poll of NY money managers has many voting the Democratic ticket for the first time ever! Does this foretell a possible Kerry landslide? Stay tuned for more!

TRADERS: Monday’s market is key to whether we will begin a retest of July lows or a slow up trending sideways market.
INVESTORS: WE ARE ON A COUNT DOWN TO A REPUBLICAN CONVENTION RALLY. It is time to begin to prepare your “dream” Buy list.

KEY DATES:       AUGUST 6,10     
DJIA:                   10150 PIVOT
NASDAQ:           1900 PIVOT
OIL:                     High Probability/High Risk Sell $44

MARKET SENTIMENT Worry first (Down), then late bargain hunting rally.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD:    SPX   1111 DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003.
FAIR VALUE:        DJIA  <9800, NASDAQ  <1800, GOLD > 402
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external risk potential is horrific!

2. The $32 Billion With a Bonus in Tax Breaks
“The magic price under the tax law will be $30.81 [for MSFT]… That is because dividends are considered extraordinary under the law if the total payment in any 85-day period is 10 percent or more of the value of the stock.”
This along with technicals makes $27 an effective intermediate trading Buy floor for MSFT.
For a pricing update for Microsoft and 29 other Dow stocks ahead of our major biannual review in October, subscribers may visit our premium post S: DJIA.

3. Best remedy for a child's cough? Water
“A glass of water will do as much to relieve a child's cough as an expensive, over-the-counter cough syrup, a new study suggests. The research, published in the medical journal Pediatrics, concludes that parents who treat a child's nighttime cough with the widely available medications are wasting their money.” If truth be known, will the billions of dollar each year that consumers spend on over-the-counter medications for cough syrups, be instead spend on bottled water?  Should one market hedge this risk and BUY WATER/SELL DRUGS? I do not know, but AFUND Q3 2004 Sector recommendations remain: Overweight Water, and Underweight Big Pharm.

“September 24, Jupiter leaves Virgo, no longer bestowing its cosmic favor to many traditional healthcare companies. In addition, the increasing probability of a Democratic election victory is further likely to shakeup the health care sector. This Fall, we will look to accumulate upon weakness, stocks that will benefit from ever more increasing demands of cost containment, and Biotechs, that continue to be blessed by Uranus in Pisces.”
WSNW subscribers can read more at our updated premium post S: Healthcare Stocks.

4. "The whole debate in the U.S. is about whether or not the Fed is underestimating inflation."
Mark Wall, economist, Deutsche Bank
HW: August 6 will “settle” this debate short term, i.e. for the August 10 FOMC meeting and its .25 interest raise.

 "Not withstanding that company earnings are coming through OK, there's a feeling that share prices have got a little ahead of the rebound we've seen in earnings. So investors are struggling to find value."
Michael Gifford, UK equity fund manager, ISIS Asset Management
HW: That is a struggle I have had for months!

"This is much more than the usual summer doldrums. There's a message coming from the market here. If I were to simplify that message, it's that the economy and earnings in the third and fourth quarter won't be as strong as we expected."
Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer, First Albany
HW: Expected by whom?

5. Investing: Initial Public Offerings, With a Canadian Twist
“More than a dozen unglamorous businesses have lined up for I.P.O.'s recently, using a new hybrid financial instrument known as income deposit securities.”
   
Stronger dollar saps overseas profit
A stronger dollar is choking off a currency windfall that had pumped up U.S. companies' overseas profits, leading many to scale back earnings forecasts for the rest of the year.

Could That Rally Be Partisan?
“Five stocks rallied for the Republicans but swooned for the Democrats. They were First Health Group, Walt Disney, J. P. Morgan Chase (before the merger was announced), American Express and McDonald's.”

6. READER: Is there a possibility that you might do another "3-2 deal" promotion? This "tough" economy...has hurt my earnings. I'm having to "cut back" on expenses.  So...if you do a 3 years for 2 PROMOTION...let me know...I'd be interested. Otherwise, I'll have to discontinue your service.
HW: I certainly appreciate the “truth” about today’s economy and I would hate to lose you as a long time subscriber. So the answer is YES, as long as you renew by the FOMC meeting August 10, you can receive WSNW for 3 years for $555 or 9 months for $250. 
Note: This special offer also will apply to gold WSNW subscribers: $2500 for three years and $1110 for 9 months. To any readers who subscribed or renewed since June 30, we will apply your last subscription payment to this special, e.g. $195 more for 2 additional years.

HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
The “Summer Doldrums” is a perfect time to accumulate IHITF and HESG, which we believe is more than tradable to a post Republican rally and the next small cap “January effect”

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(c) 2004 All rights  reserved.  The Astrologers Fund  "Always a Stellar Performance"
wsnw@Afund.com 212/949-7211 Fax 212/949-7274 370 Lexington Avenue, Suite 416 New York, N.Y. 10017-6503
Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
May 13-15, 2005 Eleventh Astrology & Stock MarketConference   NYC
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