Wall Street Next Week JUNE 28, 2004
WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK
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JUNE 28, 2004
FINANCIAL
ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JULY ASTRODATES
2. JULY MARKETS
3. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. AFUND CLIENTS
June 29 Venus SD
July 2 Full Moon 7:09 am ET
July 17 New Moon 7:24 am ET
July 22 Sun enters Leo 7:50am
July 31 Blue Moon 2:05 pm ET
2. IS THE SUMMER RALLY ALREADY OVER?
We will know better July 1. Wall Street's top economists all believe that
the Federal Reserve will raise federal funds rate .25% to 1.25 percent next
week and follow that with another .25 move in August. I agree, with
the caveat, it may be necessary for the Fed to raise rates more - .50 - in
August. Second quarter earnings season are also about to begin, and a new
market tone will commence July 12 and last well into the Fall.
Remember: MARKET ORANGE ALERT TO JULY 12.
GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX
Lord Oxburgh, chairman of Shell Transport and Trading is worried by the threat
of climate change. He sees "very little hope for the world" unless there
is a reduction in global carbon dioxide emissions. "No one can be comfortable
at the prospect of continuing to pump out the amounts of carbon dioxide that
we are at present," "People are going to go on allowing this atmospheric
carbon dioxide to build up, with consequences that we really can't predict,
but are probably not good."
TRADERS: New Market sentiment July 1-12.
INVESTORS: Market remains on Orange alert until July 12, 2004.
KEYDATES: JUNE 29, 30, JULY 1
DJIA:
Breakout Zone: 10320<>10480
NASDAQ: 2000 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE?
OIL:
Traders Delight
NEW MARKET SENTIMENT STARTING JULY 1.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: SPX 1111 DJIA 10453 NASDAQ
2003.
FAIR VALUE: DJIA < 9800, NASDAQ
<1800, GOLD > 408
While the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003, is mixed, the external
risk potential is horrific!
If you were unhappy about markets March 2000 and September 2001, don't expect
to be singing in the rain JUNE 2004!
3. Canadian
economy ‘surging' For the first time in 20 years, Canada has a higher
labor force participation rate and a lower national debt than the United
States! In fact, Canada is the ONLY G-7 country expected to be in surplus
in 2004. Many (including yours truly) predict a 78-cent (U.S.) loonie by
the end of 2005. On June 23rd I had the pleasure of attending TSX Canada
day in New York. Accordingly, I have decided, somewhat belatedly, to add
the TSX (X-T, TSXPF) itself in our Canada 20 AFUND portfolio. Given my market
apprehensions, at least until July 11, I would not buy it yet, although a
sector hedge now such as Buy TSX-T/Sell CME is likely to be intermediate/long
term profitable.
I will be visiting Canada June 25th to July 2nd . Canadians plan to
celebrate their July 1st Canada Day celebrations with friends, family and
fireworks. Canada’s 137th birthday will be buoyed by an auspicious solar
return horoscope. Accordingly, we are predicting our northern neighbor will
be the top performing G7 country post election (theirs and ours). In addition
to any stock appreciation, US investors are likely to benefit from a 5-7%
currency appreciation vs. the US dollar before the end of 2005.
Just as last year- our mantra was Buy Japan (You own Japanese products at
home, why not, Japanese stocks), later, this summer, it will be: Canada is
for sale- why not join the Party?
Note: One SRI list of possible investments is Corporate Knights
Canada's Best 50 Corporate Citizens.
US investors might also consider parking some of their cash holdings in the
loonie as well.
WSNW subscribers are again recommended to periodically review our S: 2005 CANADA
portfolio.
4. Tiffany
sues eBay for sale of fake jewellery
“Tiffany has sued eBay over what it claimed was the widespread sale of counterfeit
jewellery online, … The high-end US jeweller said its tests had shown that
73 per cent of items advertised by sellers on eBay as being from Tiffany
were fake, and that eBay should be held liable for trademark counterfeiting
and infringement.”
We are not overly fond of even high-end retailers for Q3 2004, although we
continue to maintain an outperform rating for Tiffany (TIF), coupled with
a neutral to negative sector rating for retail. Should Bush win, I
believe TIF will continue to outperform, as it will again be a prime recipient
of tax cut spending and fat Christmas Bonuses. As for Ebay, with its 100+
p/e, I maintain a Short Watch on it despite some good longer term fundamental
strategic moves such as buying Baazee.com, India's largest online marketplace.
We periodically recommend selling Internuts, taking quick profits (or small
losses) and selling it again and again and again. Our current Sell/shorting
area is 87-92 to P1 80 and below.
WSNW Subscribers can periodically review our premium post S: 2004 STOCK WATCH
LIST.
5. "We maintain the equity markets have started a sustained H2/2004 recovery
to be driven by quality-oriented earnings expansion. We see 5 percent yield
as a neutral benchmark for 10-year Treasurys, which should sustain S&P
500 P/E ratios in the 18x-20x range."
Subodh Kumar, CIBC
HW: I would be surprised to see Q3 earnings as marking a sustained recovery.
The question is how good Q2 will be, and especially with what foreword guidance.
"On the one hand we have some positive earnings to look forward to, but on
the other, we have these interest rate questions and the geopolitical risks."
Keith Keenan, vice president of institutional trading, Wall Street Access
HW: Left hand, right hand; Left hand, right hand- Trader’s delight!
“It's a good time for those who are inclined to take gains to realize them
now if they're going to do it anyway -- I don't think the market's going
anywhere for a while."
William Hummer, market strategist, Wayne Hummer
HW: Even it they do, the reward does not equal the greater risk.
6. Financially
ailing companies point to Iraq war
The Market Gets
Its Big Chance
“I have a whole list of indicators I expect to begin to fail around next
week and into early July.”
Gold,
inflation and the horns of a dilemma
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
We are making our annual due diligence visit of IHI and will be in Vancouver
Canada next week. Later this month we will be visiting HESG factory for further
due diligence reporting, also in July. Both reports should be up on a website
shortly thereafter.
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