WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK

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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: APRIL 12, 2003
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. APRIL MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS

GATHER YE ROSEBUDS WHILE YE MAY
REALITY: Dell and GE are the best of their breeds but do they justify current pricings? GE profit rises 1% to .32 a share compared with 32 cents last year. But this GE Profit Edges Higher in First Quarter was a mixed bag: double-digit gains in revenue and industrial orders as its finance arm continues to overshadow its old-line businesses. Take away financial arbitrage and what do many profitable US companies have? Far less profit, if any.

FANTASY: Yahoo hits fresh 52-week high after Q1 results. Let me analyze this carefully. YHOO results were .03 over analyst projections. So it is now worth 129 P/e?  No, it can’t be. I know that after Yahoo splits its stock, it will be worth twice as much!  This means it is really worth 175+ p/e.  We have Yahoo in our shorting sight at T1 55-60 and if need be, T2 75-99 with P1 50 P2 48 P3 40.

Sales of stock by U.S. corporate insiders flashed a bearish signal for the 11th straight month in March.
Meanwhile we expect  Investors' concern shifts to Iraq war and Consumer Confidence Sinks even more ahead of increasingly difficult upcoming aspects to both Bush’s and the US national horoscopes. I believe investors may have until next weekend (assuming Iraq doesn’t blow up first) before seeing the beginning of a forecasted 5%+ (++?) correction.
Gather ye Rose buds while ye may.

HYPE PARK SOAP BOX: NO INFLATION WATCH 
Most salaries are going up less than inflation. One notable example: Just a few days into the season, baseball already has produced a startling statistic - the average salary dropped for the first time in nearly a decade by 3% to $2.49 million. Such salary flexibility could be the main reason that the number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless aid dropped sharply last week to the lowest level in more than three years.  But will this trend continue until the Fall football season? Time will tell.  In the meantime, I predict the rich will continue to get richer, while the poor will have to wait until at least November before things start to really improve…. 

TRADERS: We are exiting or hedging most market longs ahead of this weekend.
INVESTORS: Short term [H2 April 2004], the probability will favor the bears: Sharply reduce/hedge market exposure ahead of the weekend.

KEYDATES:   APRIL 16, 19
DJIA:               Pivot 10453
NASDAQ:       Pivot  2050

MARKET SENTIMENT IS NOW STRONG OPTIMISM, PAUSE, THEN SLIGHT PROFIT TAKING
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD:    SPX   1111 DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003.
FAIR VALUE:        DJIA  <10,000,    NASDAQ  <1900, GOLD > 400

2. We continue to recommend using any tax rally Tuesday to exit more stocks ahead of this weekend.

3. China has moved up the launch of a moon-orbiting satellite by one year to 2006. The lunar mission, originally scheduled for 2007, will place a two-ton satellite into orbit around the moon for at least a year. China's lunar exploration program has shifted into high gear following last year's successful October launch of the Shenzhou 5 spacecraft with astronaut Yang Liwei aboard. It made China the third country after the United States and Russia to put a man into space, providing massive prestige. While I prefer to wait and buy until AFTER the collapse of a big bank or two, given my predilection for sound sleep, but given their accelerated space program, we may move up our coverage time for mainland China from 2006 to 2005.  However, we will continue to avoid it in 2004.

Japan will delay its plan to launch its first full-fledged lunar exploration satellite this summer because valves for the orbiter's attitude control engine have been recalled by their U.S. manufacturer Moog. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), on the latest delay in the launch of the LUNAR-A probe on an M-5 rocket has been postponed repeatedly since fiscal 1995. The launch is now pushed back to no earlier than next year.  While we continue to see Japan as an intermediate out performer for 2004, given that it has reached our long term 2004 price target of 12,000, its current failed space program and now news of three Japanese civilians being held hostage in Iraq, we continue to exit Japan (as well as most other world markets) into this week’s rally.  However, we plan Japan, INC., to be one of our first projected buy in late Spring.

4. "Most market participants are anticipating a very solid earnings season. Whether that's reflected in stock prices remains to be seen."
Keith Keenan, vice president of institutional trading, Wall Street Access
HW: Watch Yahoo and GE past Thursday for the answer.

"Our strategy is becoming increasingly more cautious. We ought to be thinking about locking in some of the gains. I'm not saying everyone out of the pool, but I think we should look at moving some of our money around."
Robert Lucente, private client investment strategist, Citigroup Smith Barney
HW: Excellent advice.

"We have pretty good earnings out of General Electric, and the retailers are all reporting pretty strong sales through March. Barring any new terrorist attacks, it's very hard, from my perspective, to find anything to worry about. But for whatever reason, a lot of people still remain skeptical. I'm not at all."
Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer, LPL Financial Services
HW: Of course Iraq is so far away and it only costs a little more than $150B a year, as well as fermenting increased global anti-American sentiment. But why worry until the first bomb is stateside?

5. For American brands, the world turns ugly
As U.S. politics erode global good will toward U.S. products, the world's most recognized companies could suffer most.
HW: This was one of our key warnings last year.

Irrational exuberance no less dangerous today
“Why irrational exuberance is as dangerous now as it was in 2000.”

6.  READER:  Put a number on where the market is going to crash to NAZ 1700 Dow 9000.... Unless I know the exact dates I should sell everything and wait... You have to approach this from a reasonable money making posture.
HW: The next HIGH probability time is April 16-19.  You have to upgrade your WSNW subscription to platinum subscription or higher if you want the exact time and price. J

READER:  Do recommend HMC and TM at current prices?
HW: I recommend it ONLY if you are a market bull. Given that our long term Nikkei target of 12,000 has effectively been reached, we continue to sell Japan now, while others are buying. I am a natural contrarian and like to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. However, if one were inclined to buy GM or Ford, I would suggest instead buying TM and HMC, which I think will outperform these peers.

7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
 
READER Gallery will be issuing news next week.
HW: I am looking forward to hearing their new results.

READER: I can sympathize with fellow shareholders about IHI's slow progress.  There is one angle that you have not addressed in your coverage and that is the difficulty of introducing a paradigm shifting technology to a very conservative industry (an industry I derive my primary income from).  In order for IHI to succeed, some far sighted if not visionary developer has to place a big bet on an untested (by the marketplace at least) product.  While I still think IHI can be a one decision stock like MSFT or INTC both of these companies were in a wide open industry in its infancy and therefore had much less institutional inertia to overcome.
HW: Given that IHI building material are standard- primarily steel and concrete, I think that less a problem than you do, although obviously it is one factor that has slowed progress more than all shareholders would like.  It could take a visionary developer or just one compelling application of IHI's superior technology to get the ball rolling.
 
READER: Do you think Roger is tiring re his commitment? I mean after many closed doors in his face one has to wonder.
HW: NO, I can say that is DEFINITELY not the case. He keeps on trucking and is FULLY committed to IHI’s success.

READER: Disappointing press release no matter how it is spun.  Bottom line - NO ORDERS.  Look for new lows.  Bid of 13 cents right now!  Stick a fork in it.  It's done.
HW: Not done. Anyway we will be buying some more soon.  I believe it will be similar to when we were big buyers of Lucent under $1. IHI’s Current pricing is where it REALLY gets interesting and profitable for contrarian investors (like me) who prefer to buy low and sell HIGH.
READER: I should say IHI is done "for now" - that is, at least until we see some real orders.  Yes, it can rise spectacularly from these depths and I along with other IHI longs are still waiting for that to happen.
HW: Most investors are waiting, while others are slowly and smartly taking advantage of the current price situation.
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