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WALL
STREET, NEXT WEEK: MARCH 1, 2003
FINANCIAL
ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. MARCH ASTRODATES
2. MARCH MARKETS
3. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
8. AFUND LETTERS
3/6 Full Moon 6:14pm ET
3/6 Saturn SD
3/20 Sun enters Aries 1:49am and New Moon 5:41pm
3/24 Pluto SR
2. THE US ECONOMY: SLOWING, NOT GROWING
Short term (first half of March) basic challenges to continuing market strength
include:
Iraq and general worldwide terrorism, interest rates, Real inflation AND
deflation, declining GDP, increased global competition, slowing corporate
profit growth, strong overhead stock resistance, stock overvaluation, seasonal
stock patterns, US presidential election negativity, and the secular US dollar
decline.
Bottom line: any vision or business press admission of REALITY will not
be good for stock portfolios.
Bulls with cash are hoping for a 5% or more correction, so they can buy
the Vernal Equinox Aries New Moon into the tax season. Some financial
astrologers are predicting a sky’s the limit rally. We remain agnostic
about this belief until we see how much of a decline the markets will make
over the next two weeks. However, we obviously do recognize a strong
seasonal pattern and will be reducing some naked shorts and doing some buying
(balanced long/short) for a well predicted rally. How quickly and how strongly
markets reverse for the April 19 Solar eclipse will be most interesting indeed.
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX
The German firm Siemens will move the majority of its 15,000 software programming
jobs from its offices in the United States and Western Europe to India, China
and Eastern Europe. Now we can’t have a solution unless it’s identified as
a problem. Is it? You betcha!
TRADERS: We do not see much upside ahead of Tuesday; thereafter also less
volatility for the week.
INVESTORS: Bulls looking to buy 5% OB cheaper. Bears should be happier
on Friday.
KEYDATES: MARCH 2, 4
DJIA:
10600 PIVOT S1 10500 S2 10400 S3 10250
NASDAQ: 2030 PIVOT S1
2000 S2 1980 S3 1950
GOLD:
395 PIVOT
MARKET SENTIMENT: Strong Optimism, pause, but no give back.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: ELIMINATE MARGIN DEBT, BE HIGHLY LIQUID, AND HAVE A
BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: SPX 1111 DJIA 10453 NASDAQ
2003.
FAIR VALUE: DJIA <10,000,
NASDAQ <2000, GOLD >400
3. No buying this week, except possibly for short term gold accumulation.
4.
Major Funeral Corporations Struggling. Given both sex and death aren’t
selling like they used to, it is hard to be optimistic about current market
valuations. Intermediate term we rate both industries under perform.
5. "I think we're into a seasonal period of quiet between now and the end
of April."
Doug Davis, president, Davis-Rea
HW: Astrologically, I would shorten that time period a few days closer to
the April 19th Solar eclipse.
“Right now, you would have to say that the good news we've had so far appears
to be priced in.'' A lot of technology stocks are not cheap anymore.''
James Awad, chairman, Awad Asset Management
HW: Not only not cheap, but growing far less than last century.
"A worry is Wall Street. The more we wait (for the market to gain momentum),
the more it looks too fragile to maintain the uptrend.”
Terushi Hirotama, head of trading, Ichiyoshi Securities
HW: I believe support has to be tested more fully, before net fresh buying
will overcome distribution at Nasdaq 2050-2100 and Dow 10650-10850.
6. Guerrilla
Investing: Don't spend like a drunken sailor
Value Fund Managers Eschew Flash, Raise Some Cash
Are
newsletter editors too bullish?
7. READER: Do you still see rates up this year? I guess after tax
and war effect will be worked out soon, growth will disappoint and rates
will go lower. This of course should only help real estate. Maybe US real
estate could stabilize, but in Europe I see no reason, as with real estate
yields >5%, people will continue to invest in that sector. Just an opinion.
HW: Yes, I do. I am not sure it will help US real estate, especially
commercial and industrial. But it is not an easy clear picture and is fraught
with great dangers.
8. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS.
There has been no good explanation as to why after the factory was ready,
production, in earnest, did not begin.
HW: I don't completely agree. The private placement financings by
the Saudi group required that the initial factory production be reserved
for them. When it turned out they missed their second deadline, the Company
was free to solicit orders. Now, it could be argued (and I have) that
they could have started soliciting these orders sooner; however, had they
and the Saudi group came in, they would not have been able to fulfill these
orders, which would have been a rather serious problem. I do think
there was some work around solutions, but that is past history. Now
the question is: why does a company with a superior product and competitive
pricings not have its first break through orders already? Here I have
argued that they have to start small and then crank up. They are starting
to do that, I wish they had sooner, but that is also is past history. However,
to turn on the factory up to full production is very expensive. So that is
also not simple, if not backed up with consistent large order flow. That is
why sales and marketing is now more a priority for the company. Up to September,
it was getting the factory ready. Given I am currently helping with the forthcoming
New York area offices and factory set up, I am very aware of the chicken/egg
problem here. The company and especially Roger is pushing, pushing
pushing and will continue to do so until they succeed. There are a number
of large pending orders in final negotiations. I remain hopeful that
this logjam will be broken over the next few weeks/months.
READER: Still waiting for some IHI news.
HW: As I wrote before, I expect some positive news by late March to early
May. This is still February.
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May 14-17, 2004 Eleventh
Astrology & Stock
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