Wall Street Next Week FEBRUARY 23, 2004
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful investors
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WALL
STREET, NEXT WEEK: FEBRUARY 23, 2003
FINANCIAL
ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. FEBRUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
7. AFUND LETTERS
THE FEBRUARY 20TH NEW MOON
A larger than expected rise in inflation last month raised interest rate
concerns Friday and sent stock prices lower but the US dollar soaring. This
followed an ABCNews/Money Magazine consumer comfort index seven point drop
to -13, its biggest weekly drop on record! What many investors don’t realize
is that we have BOTH inflation and deflation at the same time, but the government
has not adequately reported the inflation side to date. That is to say the
real cost of living for the average American continues to rise, year after
year.
Nearly $31 billion poured into U.S.-focused mutual funds in January, near
the all-time monthly record of $35.4 billion in February 2000. Just a coincidence
that stocks began a three-year free fall in March 2000, just after the record
inflows that February? We are in another speculative bubble. Market bulls
believe that Dow 12,000 is inevitable within 12 months. Global investors wonder
what the value of the US dollar will be at that time. If it continues
to decline, then even such a rally will result in no gain for non-US dollar
linked country investors. More short term, challenging industry conditions
remain. The question is: Is the worst behind us? If what I believe is true,
then the US economic fundamentals are not getting better. Eventually,
markets will recognize this, as sooner or later reality does intersect with
stock prices!
400$ GOLD
Everyone knows that $400 gold represents inflation. Yet when gold crossed
over $400, there was little inflation talk from the mainstream business press.
Then Friday after terrorism and inflationary threats, gold drops below $400.
While gold also acts as a currency (opposite to the US dollar), why was there
no reaction to inflation or terrorism? Is the price of gold being manipulated
as some gold bugs claim, especially on Fridays! Conspiracy or no, we recommended
buying gold on Friday and may continue to buy more early this week.
NEW MARKET MARKER
There was a subtle shift when our new pretax market marker went into effect
February 17.
It was: OPTIMISM, RETHINK AND THEN
SKY’S THE LIMIT!
Now it is: STRONG OPTIMISM, PAUSE, BUT NO GIVE BACK.
Therefore, given that a short to intermediate term ceiling on Nasdaq has
been set and potentially also on the DOW and SPX, selling on rallies should
continue. The question is how dangerous it will be to buy on dips ahead of
mid-March.
TRADERS: We will not be surprised if SPX 1025 is challenged Tuesday.
The rest of the week we may recommend buying balanced pairs, e.g. Buy HPQ/Sell
EBAY or Buy DELL/Sell YHOO.
INVESTORS: There is little new reason to buy until mid-March and naked buy
and hold is risky.
KEYDATES: FEBRUARY 23, 24
DJIA: S1 10500 S2
10400 S3 10250 R1 10600 R2 10666 R3 10737
NASDAQ: 1980 Support? 2100 Resistance
GOLD: 395 Support, PIVOT 400 R1 408
R2 413 R3 417
MARKET SENTIMENT: STRONG OPTIMISM, PAUSE, BUT NO GIVE BACK.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: THE STOCK MARKET IS ON BORROWED TIME. ELIMINATE MARGIN
DEBT, BE HIGHLY LIQUID, AND KEEP A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
12/31/2003 EOD: SPX 1111 DJIA 10453 NASDAQ
2003.
FAIR VALUE: DJIA <10,000,
NASDAQ <2000, GOLD >400
2. Ahead of Tuesday February 24, we are less inclined than ever to buy stocks.
We are closely watching the price of gold and issued a rare Monday night watch
for Japan and the Yen. We don’t see much US market upside for the rest of
the month. .
3. Turkey's Parliament approved the omission of six zeros from Turkish Lira
(TL) as of Jan. 1, 2005 and renamed it "New Turkish Lira." Sureyya Serdengecti,
the president of Turkey's Central Bank, said that the fact that Turkey had
the biggest banknotes adversely affected the prestige of the country and
the psychology of its citizens. The decision for the removal of six zeros
was taken as a result of the declining trend in inflation, he added. Six fewer
zeros is clearly a plus for Turkey. Yet its physical closeness to Iraq with
its Kurdish issues leaves us with no great desire to rush into investing there
ahead of the US June 30th deadline. Bottom line: The easy money was made
by buying just before the Iraq war.
4. “I have my doubts whether the U.S. economy is going to show continued
growth anymore and that will affect [Japanese] exporters negatively.''
Koichi Seki, equity manager, Chuo Securities
HW: I share your doubts.
“These takeovers show that company executives think current market values
are attractive and are positive that profits can rise further, boosting optimism
in the stock market.'
Andreas Koester, comanager, Axa Investment Managers
HW: Takeovers like AWE only shows some company executives do not understand
value and are as willing to overpay as ordinary investors.
"I don't think investors really care about the scandal headlines. Performance
drives fund flows, and over the past few months, stocks have performed well."
Carl Wittnebert, director of research, TrimTabs.com
HW: Yes, but as every trading disclaimer states: Past performance is no
guarantee of future performance.
5. Consumer
Price Index Up 0.5 Percent
"Let's be clear here. Do we have an inflation problem? No," said Ken Mayland,
president of ClearView Economics.
Six
Stocks to Own When Inflation Hits
Pick companies that can adapt to changing economic conditions.
The "Real"
Value of a Dollar
6. READER: Haven't received this week's WSNW [2/16]. You maybe on
vacation? Please let me know when the next issue I should look to receive.
HW: On some active trading weeks, I send WSNW on Sundays.
You will receive it sometime this afternoon.
READER: Is there any chance I can have a copy of the 13th update?
HW: Previous issues are posted on our website at Wall Street Next Week.
Our current issue is in our premium area for WSNW subscribers at Wall Street Next
Week FEBRUARY 16, 2004.
7. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS.
READER: Will the silence ever end? Why doesn't IHI issue some info on what
is going on?
In our last exchange you stated that you were still buying. WHY?
HW: Press releases are generally issued where there is new material news.
Other than that, the company practice is to give an update every month or
two.
I am still buying on weakness, as I consider the stock undervalued and the
prospects brighter than ever (although slower beyond what I ever imagined).
Whether it be March/April or August or whenever, I continue to believe the
company will well reward my extreme patience.
READER: I bought some more IHI at .20. I hope we are rewarded some
day. But, as we know, these can be viewed as long term calls.
I'm not sweating "if" I'm wondering "when?"
HW: First guess is March/April. I will have a second (and third) guess prepared,
if needed!
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IHI
has been an AFUND client since 1994 and is currently paying
monthly $2,500 consulting fees and $500 for banner ads on
our website. May 15, 2002, an affiliated company, Susan Hahn &
Associates became IHI’s media representative with a monthly
fee of $1500.
July 7, 2003 GYR-TSX became an
AFUND client and is currently paying $1000 monthly consulting
fees plus we received a one time fee of 100,000 free trading
shares and will receive 200,000 options at C$.10 to be paid by
a third party.
Please read our Disclaimer for
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