WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK

Financial Astrology for successful investors and traders"   
 
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JANUARY 12, 2003
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. IM OF THE WEEK
7. LETTERS
8. AFUND LETTERS

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE SINCE THE DEPRESSION

“Despite a sustained surge in factory output, rising retail sales and improved business confidence, a paltry 1,000 jobs were added across the world's largest economy in December when market players were betting on a jump of at least 150,000.” I don’t know if the Jobs Disaster or the Forbes publishing family will auction its Faberge eggs, the biggest private collection in the world signals worse news. The picture is: The US economy is NOT rosy!  If you believe we are really winning in Iraq, then feel free to discount my concerned warnings. But do remember, it is the same political team who now has the entire Global economy at risk by U.S. deficit. Markets MAY rally even if the US dollar falls, but the end results, post election, is not likely to be pretty. 

Will corporate earnings reports from Q4 2003 be good enough?  Will they be good enough in Q1 2004? As long as reasonable valuations are ignored, Nasdaq can go to 2200 or 2600. However, while markets are sky high [above DOW 10,000], do realize fundamentally they are as, if not more risky and dangerous than in March 2000. Fortunately, Friday there was some market realism in analyst downgrades of Shell and SBC etc.  Continental CEO Gordon Bethune warned for CAL to break even this year, the price of a barrel of oil must drop by $9.  This is a good time to invest in airline stocks?  Folks, I could go on, but there is such a broad disconnect between reality and far too many analysts today. We are living in a reincarnation of March 2000.

When will a dollar shock [Monday?], surprise interest rate shock, terror attack etc. jar markets?  There are several possible dates ahead that suggest caution. Friday December 9th’s rare WSNW subscriber warning was one:
“THIS COULD BE SERIOUS: Suggest you review your portfolios IMMEDIATELY and consider stops or reducing US market exposure!”
If the US dollar reaches 85, Monday could be a memorable nightmare. It may not happen this Monday, it may not happen at all.  But if does, are you prepared?


INVESTORS: While Eurodollars rose on Friday (a bet against the FED raising rates and inflation), so did TIPS and GOLD, which are inflation hedges.  Are you hedged or benefiting from the inevitable further weakening of the US dollar? For the first time in our proprietary valuation model, Gold’s Fair Value moved crossed $400. We are not recommending increased buying commodity stocks (both oil and gold stocks are overvalued). We are ready to add more TIPS bond weighting by February.

TRADERS: New Market Marker Sentiment: Strong Optimism, then retest neutral, and then hopeful waiting until the sky's the limit.
Buy Gold on a pullback below 418 or a breakout above 431.
Currency Trading: Central banks will succeed the first time with a direct intervention.
 
KEYDATES:      JANUARY 12, 14, 15
DJIA:                 10500 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2110 PIVOT - S1 2080 S2 2050 S3 2000
QQQ:                38 PIVOT

NEW Market Marker: Optimism, rethink, and then the sky's the limit!
DON’T BUY AND HOLD. THE STOCK MARKET IS ON BORROWED TIME. ELIMINATE MARGIN DEBT, BE HIGHLY LIQUID, AND KEEP A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!    Gold FV 412
DIJA FV 8217          3 DJ Stocks offer 4%+ Dividends.     
12/31/2003 EOD:     SPX   1111 DJIA 10453 NASDAQ 2003.
Trading targets:          SPX   1011 DJIA   9753 NASDAQ 1722.

2. Does your portfolio Hablo Espanol?
Investment bank Samuel A. Ramirez recently launched a stock index to track the fortunes of Hispanic businesses like Univision [UNV] as they increase their presence in the U.S. economy. The bank's Hispanic Index tracks the 10 largest and heavily traded Hispanic companies in the United States and Puerto Rico, based on market value and trading volume. "The reason we did the index was to introduce the asset class called the Hispanic market, and to have a benchmark like any other asset class," said Jay Garcia, managing director at Ramirez & Co., the U.S.'s largest Hispanic-owned securities firm. Companies in the index have been prospering, as Hispanics have become the largest minority group in the United States, now 13% of the U.S. population.  We rate this index an intermediate term outperform.
   
With OpenOffice and Linux bringing serious competition for the first time in almost a decade, Microsoft's prices have only one way to go: down.  Despite a hoard of cash to rival many oil potentates, we rate MSFT an under perform.

3. HP, rock stars unite to fight piracy. While this holds much future promise, it does not change our current rating on HPQ: Distribute through March 2004

4. “A correction is happening because the market got ahead of itself and was becoming overvalued and speculative. A correction is welcome – it’ll put stocks back at levels of being fairly valued.”
Hugh Johnson, managing director, First Albany
HW: To be even remotely close to fairly valued, there needs to be at least a 50% correction in Nasdaq stocks alone.

"(Recent data) highlights that institutions have been continuing to sell the energy sector, which shows they aren't being fooled by the speculators in the spot oil market and they know the fundamentals of these companies aren't as good as some people have thought."
Michael O'Sullivan, strategist, State Street Global Advisers
HW: Yes, we recently recommended selling oil majors.

"As long as the dollar's decline is slow and gradual it's OK,"
Richard Yamarone, director of economic research, Argus Research
HW: OIC: Bad is news is ok if slow, but if fast, it is not? This “conventional wisdom” does not make a lot of cents to me.

5. TERRORISM, INFLATION FEARS STALK U.S. MARKET IN 2004
“2003 was a great year for investors but there are reasons 2004 may not measure up. Here are some:
1. Terrorist attacks 2. Interest rates hikes 3. Corporate earnings shortfall 4. Weak dollar keeping foreigners out of U.S. stocks 5. Higher energy costs.”

Jan 01 Gold and Hyperinflation Y T Wong 321gold
“This article is written to pinpoint the timing of the imminent hyperinflation.”

Markets - Weapon of Mass (wealth) Destruction?
“While we firmly believe that 2004 will be good, a short-term pullback to 1990 is in order. The caveat is that if the Comp breaks below 1990, we could be in for a healthy--albeit stronger--pullback possibly to the 1680 level, as unrealistic as that eventuality may seem, presently….
If you have other stocks that have participated in the recent run-up, we would strongly suggest you assess whether taking partial profits is warranted. No one ever went broke selling some winners too soon.”

6. J: amazing!
Henry: So if you get a strong sell signal and you want to short more [1/9/2004] feel free. [This forecasted UP move at THIS hour] proves astrology works!
J: Apparently traders on floor are saying 1) economy is still generally strong 2) individual stock stories still good 3) only 1 months report, and may be aberration. That is what CNBC is reporting.
Henry: Really they are on drugs. Lets see what they say Monday. I haven't seen worse risk/reward in a year. Monday morning foreigners could place MAJOR sell orders for US stocks!

7. READER: RE: This could be serious!  Thanks as always for your timely alerts.
HW: You are most welcome.

READER: Re: THIS COULD BE SERIOUS: Could you be more specific? What could be serious?
HW: We are NOT saying markets will collapse just yet, but a 500-point correction may be [forth] coming.  If markets close down below 10500 today [1/09], Monday/Tuesday could be VERY hairy. While this would be where markets were in December, it may not end there
It does NOT involve gold stocks or special situation stocks like IHITF, but we did sell some favorites today like SONY (SNE).

READER: What do people that are stuck in annuities or mutual funds and can't get out of them without paying enormous fees do?  It appears that after having taken the advice of supposedly very reputable financial advisors that we are just stuck!  Any suggestions?
HW: Don't make the same mistake twice with future investments. I don’t know what else to add.

READER: Cannot open your site from here (Holland) -Hackers owned your site.
HW: For the last week, our website has been under cyber attack. We are exploring technical as well as legal solutions to this problem.  Short term we are fixing the site each day, so if you have trouble logging in, try again a few hours later. We apologize for any and all inconvenience.

8.  HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS

READER: Whilst the January effect is something the main thing is to really get this Company [IHI] getting decent orders, creating Revenue and that would attract new Investors.
HW: Yes that is well realized. Well there is a tremendous amount of new sales efforts going into the company. Hopefully we see fruition soon.

READER: For the first time in a long time I felt one of the best things they [IHI] have considered seriously is the need to tap into their home market. I have seen so many small companies that want to take on the world and they don't get good revenue going from home markets and end up in serious trouble so I think they are taking the right direction there.
HW: YES, most definitely.

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PAST WALL STREET NEXT WEEK REPORTS
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(c) 2003 All rights  reserved.  The Astrologers Fund  "Always a Stellar Performance"
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
May 14-17, 2004 Eleventh Astrology & Stock MarketConference   NYC
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: PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE  OF  FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE  TRADING  RESULTS.

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