Wall Street Next Week JANUARY 12, 2004
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
Financial Astrology for successful investors
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WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK: JANUARY 12, 2003
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY
FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. IM OF THE WEEK
7. LETTERS
8. AFUND LETTERS
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE SINCE THE DEPRESSION
“Despite a sustained surge in factory output, rising retail sales and improved
business confidence, a paltry 1,000 jobs were added across the world's largest
economy in December when market players were betting on a jump of at least
150,000.” I don’t know if the Jobs Disaster or the
Forbes publishing family will auction its Faberge eggs, the biggest private
collection in the world signals worse news. The picture is: The US economy
is NOT rosy! If you believe we are really winning in Iraq, then feel
free to discount my concerned warnings. But do remember, it is the same political
team who now has the entire Global
economy at risk by U.S. deficit. Markets MAY rally even if the US dollar
falls, but the end results, post election, is not likely to be pretty.
Will corporate earnings reports from Q4 2003 be good enough? Will
they be good enough in Q1 2004? As long as reasonable valuations are ignored,
Nasdaq can go to 2200 or 2600. However, while markets are sky high [above
DOW 10,000], do realize fundamentally they are as, if not more risky and dangerous
than in March 2000. Fortunately, Friday there was some market realism in
analyst downgrades of Shell and SBC etc. Continental CEO Gordon Bethune
warned for CAL to break even this year, the price of a barrel of oil must
drop by $9. This is a good time to invest in airline stocks? Folks,
I could go on, but there is such a broad disconnect between reality and far
too many analysts today. We are living in a reincarnation of March 2000.
When will a dollar shock [Monday?], surprise interest rate shock, terror
attack etc. jar markets? There are several possible dates ahead that
suggest caution. Friday December 9th’s rare WSNW subscriber warning was one:
“THIS COULD BE SERIOUS: Suggest you review your portfolios IMMEDIATELY
and consider stops or reducing US market exposure!”
If the US dollar reaches 85, Monday could be a memorable nightmare. It may
not happen this Monday, it may not happen at all. But if does, are you
prepared?
INVESTORS: While Eurodollars rose on Friday (a bet against the FED
raising rates and inflation), so did TIPS and GOLD, which are inflation hedges.
Are you hedged or benefiting from the inevitable further weakening of the
US dollar? For the first time in our proprietary valuation model, Gold’s Fair
Value moved crossed $400. We are not recommending increased buying commodity
stocks (both oil and gold stocks are overvalued). We are ready to add more
TIPS bond weighting by February.
TRADERS: New Market Marker Sentiment: Strong Optimism, then retest
neutral, and then hopeful waiting until the sky's the limit.
Buy Gold on a pullback below 418 or a breakout above 431.
Currency Trading: Central banks will succeed the first time with a direct
intervention.
KEYDATES: JANUARY 12, 14, 15
DJIA:
10500 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 2110 PIVOT - S1 2080
S2 2050 S3 2000
QQQ:
38 PIVOT
NEW Market Marker: Optimism, rethink, and then the sky's the limit!
DON’T BUY AND HOLD. THE STOCK MARKET IS ON BORROWED TIME. ELIMINATE MARGIN
DEBT, BE HIGHLY LIQUID, AND KEEP A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
Gold FV 412
DIJA FV 8217 3 DJ Stocks offer
4%+ Dividends.
12/31/2003 EOD: SPX 1111 DJIA 10453
NASDAQ 2003.
Trading targets: SPX
1011 DJIA 9753 NASDAQ 1722.
2. Does your portfolio Hablo Espanol?
Investment
bank Samuel A. Ramirez recently launched a stock index to track the fortunes
of Hispanic businesses like Univision [UNV] as they increase their presence
in the U.S. economy. The bank's Hispanic Index tracks the 10 largest and heavily
traded Hispanic companies in the United States and Puerto Rico, based on
market value and trading volume. "The reason we did the index was to introduce
the asset class called the Hispanic market, and to have a benchmark like any
other asset class," said Jay Garcia, managing director at Ramirez & Co.,
the U.S.'s largest Hispanic-owned securities firm. Companies in the index
have been prospering, as Hispanics have become the largest minority group
in the United States, now 13% of the U.S. population. We rate this
index an intermediate term outperform.
With OpenOffice and Linux bringing
serious competition for the first time in almost a decade, Microsoft's prices
have only one way to go: down. Despite a hoard of cash to rival many
oil potentates, we rate MSFT an under perform.
3. HP,
rock stars unite to fight piracy. While this holds much future promise,
it does not change our current rating on HPQ: Distribute through March 2004
4. “A correction is happening because the market got ahead of itself and
was becoming overvalued and speculative. A correction is welcome – it’ll put
stocks back at levels of being fairly valued.”
Hugh Johnson, managing director, First Albany
HW: To be even remotely close to fairly valued, there needs to be at least
a 50% correction in Nasdaq stocks alone.
"(Recent data) highlights that institutions have been continuing to sell
the energy sector, which shows they aren't being fooled by the speculators
in the spot oil market and they know the fundamentals of these companies aren't
as good as some people have thought."
Michael O'Sullivan, strategist, State Street Global Advisers
HW: Yes, we recently recommended selling oil majors.
"As long as the dollar's decline is slow and gradual it's OK,"
Richard Yamarone, director of economic research, Argus Research
HW: OIC: Bad is news is ok if slow, but if fast, it is not? This “conventional
wisdom” does not make a lot of cents to me.
5. TERRORISM, INFLATION
FEARS STALK U.S. MARKET IN 2004
“2003 was a great year for investors but there are reasons 2004 may not
measure up. Here are some:
1. Terrorist attacks 2. Interest rates hikes 3. Corporate earnings shortfall
4. Weak dollar keeping foreigners out of U.S. stocks 5. Higher energy costs.”
Jan 01
Gold and Hyperinflation Y T Wong 321gold
“This article is written to pinpoint the timing of the imminent hyperinflation.”
Markets
- Weapon of Mass (wealth) Destruction?
“While we firmly believe that 2004 will be good, a short-term pullback to
1990 is in order. The caveat is that if the Comp breaks below 1990, we could
be in for a healthy--albeit stronger--pullback possibly to the 1680 level,
as unrealistic as that eventuality may seem, presently….
If you have other stocks that have participated in the recent run-up, we
would strongly suggest you assess whether taking partial profits is warranted.
No one ever went broke selling some winners too soon.”
6. J: amazing!
Henry: So if you get a strong sell signal and you want to short more [1/9/2004]
feel free. [This forecasted UP move at THIS hour] proves astrology works!
J: Apparently traders on floor are saying 1) economy is still generally
strong 2) individual stock stories still good 3) only 1 months report, and
may be aberration. That is what CNBC is reporting.
Henry: Really they are on drugs. Lets see what they say Monday. I haven't
seen worse risk/reward in a year. Monday morning foreigners could place MAJOR
sell orders for US stocks!
7. READER: RE: This could be serious! Thanks as always for your timely
alerts.
HW: You are most welcome.
READER: Re: THIS COULD BE SERIOUS: Could you be more specific? What could
be serious?
HW: We are NOT saying markets will collapse just yet, but a 500-point correction
may be [forth] coming. If markets close down below 10500 today [1/09],
Monday/Tuesday could be VERY hairy. While this would be where markets were
in December, it may not end there
It does NOT involve gold stocks or special situation stocks like IHITF,
but we did sell some favorites today like SONY (SNE).
READER: What do people that are stuck in annuities or mutual funds and can't
get out of them without paying enormous fees do? It appears that after
having taken the advice of supposedly very reputable financial advisors that
we are just stuck! Any suggestions?
HW: Don't make the same mistake twice with future investments. I don’t know
what else to add.
READER: Cannot open your site from here (Holland) -Hackers owned your site.
HW: For the last week, our website has been under cyber attack. We are exploring
technical as well as legal solutions to this problem. Short term we
are fixing the site each day, so if you have trouble logging in, try again
a few hours later. We apologize for any and all inconvenience.
8. HERE WE TALK ABOUT AFUND CLIENTS
READER: Whilst the January effect is something the main thing is to really
get this Company [IHI] getting decent orders, creating Revenue and that would
attract new Investors.
HW: Yes that is well realized. Well there is a tremendous amount of new
sales efforts going into the company. Hopefully we see fruition soon.
READER: For the first time in a long time I felt one of the best things
they [IHI] have considered seriously is the need to tap into their home market.
I have seen so many small companies that want to take on the world and they
don't get good revenue going from home markets and end up in serious trouble
so I think they are taking the right direction there.
HW: YES, most definitely.
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BY THE STARS, THE STUDY
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STARS (01)
May 14-17,
2004 Eleventh Astrology &
Stock MarketConference
NYC
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