WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: NOVEMBER
12, 2001
FINANCIAL
ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
DIFFICULT PROGRESS: CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY
We have now reached our forecasted US markets targets of DJIA 9605-9861
and NASDAQ 1809-1931 for early November. Profits need to be protected
against further potential bear assaults. We advise against returning to past
excessive speculation as investor fear recedes. To quote a recent Citibank
ad: “Being filthy rich is so 1999.” Junk bond defaults, one prime example,
are at a post 1929 depression high and will climb still higher by Spring
2002. Still, the cup is half empty: stocks will perform better than cash
AND bonds from the12 month time horizon we use.
The latest or10th Fed rate cut this year to 2%, lowers interest rates to
their lowest level since 1961.Further cuts are NOT needed and would only damage
the US dollar. Any business that can’t make money with 2% interest rates,
won’t even at 0%. You either have access to the capital markets or you don’t.
The long struggle, aka economic recovery, continues.
LM Ericsson sees the systems market falling by 10 pct in 2002 as a worst
case scenario for internal planning purposes. Torbjorn Nilsson, business strategy
manager at Ericsson said "We expect further consolidation amongst operators.
The largest will become even larger. “ The worst case scenario is –10%;
however, most businesses will slowly base from their October lows. This,
plus the big getting even BIGGER are two key themes for 2002. One minor
note is the humbling of more former wunderkind stars ala Enron (ENE).
KEYDATES: November 13, 15
DJIA:
9861-10,000 Resistance
NASDAQ: 1931-2000 Resistance
XOI:
Begin long term accumulation
Now THERE IS LIGHT AT END OF THE TUNNEL Saturn-Opposition Pluto ends May
2002!
INVESTORS: FALL 2002 markets will be HIGHER than today.
2. While markets are not likely to take out DJIA 10,000 THIS month, they
are likely to withstand external shocks better, i.e. the 2001 low IS in place.
Greed may return and this can favor select microcaps. On November 8th, we
gave our stock of the month
club
pick: Parker Drilling PKD with a $4 target within 60 days, and as a potential
take over target, a possible $5 bonus price.
Our second choice was a medley of four favorite penny stocks, which can
be bought together in a mini-mutual fund fashion. We believe all may appreciate
50%-100% within 90 days. If true, you may wish to take profits or sell
½ with any double. As a group, we expect a total return of at
least 50% before the end of January. By buying all four together (less than
$4) you are spreading your risk. However, this is clearly only for high-risk
investors, using risk capital they can easily afford to lose.
Our four microcaps choices are: CELSION (CLN), ELECTRIC FUEL (EFCX), INTERNATIONAL
HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES (IHITF)* and ROBOTIC VISIONS (ROBV).
3. Santa
getting to grips with the latest technology
A special London school hosted by Virgin Megastores is bringing Santa Claus
up to speed on the latest wish lists. Santas are being taught what a DVD is
and how an MP3 player works. They also learn about the latest video games
and receive language lessons ranging from the latest playground slang to how
to say "Happy Christmas" in Latin -- "Natale Hilare Et Annum Faustum. According
to James Lovell of the Ministry of Fun, Britain's largest provider of Santas,
"Christmas has gone high-tech and the Santas should be able to relate to
the kids." We think this bodes well for both Panasonic (MC) and SONY
(SNE). They are both on a “Santa Watch” for possible upgrades from
“accumulate on weakness” to “long term Buy”.
4. "We now expect they will lower the funds rate [when 2.5%] to 1.5 percent
by early next year."
John Youngdahl, economist, Goldman Sachs
HW: Wow, you are already half right.
"There's a whole bullish case revolving around the notion that we will be
successful in degrading the terror threat, and our economy can expand again,
and that 2002 will be better than 2001."
Joseph V. Battipaglia, chief investment strategist, Gruntal
HW: That ain’t no BS!
"People are looking to next year and they're optimistic."
Mike Murphy, trading director, First Union Securities
HW: As well they should.
5. Dow performance
on the onset of Major Security Events
Crisis Response May
Harm U.S. Economy
Washington is considering various ideas to spur the economy back to a gallop,
but the sense of haste could lead to the adoption of proposals that would
threaten state and federal budgets and the country's long-term economic health.
Eyeing the Radar Screen for Tax Loss Selling.
6. READER: You say "Now THERE IS LIGHT AT END OF THE TUNNEL: Saturn-Opposition
Pluto ends May 2002!" Are you saying that our current overall bear market
trend/cycle ends that month and if so, is that the start of a new bull market??
(if not, when do you project the end of our bear market?)
HW: For many markets and sectors , the bear market is already OVER.
It started far earlier than most people think, and may have ended sooner,
ironically due to the war on terror. However, the investing public or
media pundits many not realize that until Spring/Summer 2002.
READER: Today was a good victory.
HW: Yes, with markets overtaking the psychological DJIA 9605 or pre 911
levels. What good news: Microsoft settlement, Cisco guidance, the FED interest
rates cut, significant northern alliance progress announced (and unaccounted?).
This morning I woke to find Mike is Mayor! Life is good again for financial
New Yorkers!
READER: What is your view of MHX?
HW: We own it and for us, it continues to be an intermediate term/long term
hold until 11-14.
READER: My thoughts:
- By June 2002, the Crude Oil prices would be in the range of US $10 to
12 per Barrel.
- By this time the GOLD should be around 320+ levels.
- US will face a temporary sort of victory by spring of 2002' in Afghanistan,
but then a major setback is predicted. Global markets could crash again.
HW: We don’t see oil going that low, in fact, probably not below $18
at the very worst. Gold certainly can break up $300 and should by 3Q
2002. We expect the US and its allies to have a temporary sort of victory
before Ramadan. Yet with Saturn-Opposition Pluto’s third and final pass, there
may be a final terrorist hurrah then, but one likely fading into the shadows
for some time to come thereafter.
READER: Since I am from Canada (Just North East of Toronto)....and Northern
Telecom is to...and you seem to have an attraction for Canada....What is your
opinion on NT????
HW: As a WSNW subscriber, I recommend you view our latest
Canadian posts
in our premium area. NT in the Spring will be OK, but short term,
it is not a favorite parking place for my loonies.
READER: I trade xau/options as well as S&P500 OPTIONS.YOUR newsletter
looks interesting, but I noticed that both values & dates are missing.
Maybe I missed it. Something I’d like to see was that the S&P500 should
reach 1200 by the end of December. THAT type of info would be useful and help
me trade .IF THAT IS POSSABLE with your newsletter I'd be interested.
HW: I would recommend you take a trial of our Gold (trading) edition of
Wall Street, Next Week for $500.
READER: In your WSNW report, you mentioned stox.com's assets were seized.
Does that leave those of us still holding their shares - up a creek without
a paddle?
HW: Trading is still halted. It is possible, but I don’t know how likely,
that stockholders will get something should anyone purchase the remains of
the company.
READER: What I should make of the news item from Stockwatch regarding Mr
Rached… As I large investor in IHITF I would be grateful for your advice.
HW: Noting the timing of its release (it was “old” news), the company IHI*
itself is not involved, and that is was filled with many half truths, I see
it as another sign of increasingly desperate shorts, shorts whose future fate
seems as certain as Osama bin Laden’s. I used this disinformation as another
personal opportunity to buy a few more IHITF shares at bargain basement prices
only two months before production - amazing!
READER: The latest news release from IHI seems bleak. Although scheduled
to start production in December looks like they're still searching for an
order! Maybe the shorts knew something we didn't.
HW: Not so - there is not a lack of orders. The question is how many orders
to take and what size? This involves the need for reserve working capital,
which the company is now in the process of raising. I stick with my interpretation-
the act of increasingly desperate shorts.
READER: I was re-watching a taped Fox interview you did pre-911 where you
were making some predictions... since 911 you've changed some of your views
naturally (deciding to be more overweight in US equities than European because
of the investment in the recovery, etc)... could you comment on these predictions,
have they changed...? they were
1. neg GDP in 3Q (this one is very obvious). 2. Positive GDP in 4Q,
but neg again in 1Q 2002.
3. US Dollar dropping in value (5-8%), Euro gaining . 4. Fed raising rates
in 2002 to defend the US dollar
HW: Given the government overstated 3Q 2001 GDP, and unless it is revised
down considerably, they will erroneously have us in recession 4Q 2001.
We believe the Euro will regain .91-.93 within 2 months and the Fed will raise
rates in 2002. See our shortly to be posted 2002 Stock market forecasts
for details.
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TRADING BY THE STARS.
(c)
2001 All rights reserved. The
Astrologers Fund "Always a Stellar Performance"
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY
OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS (01)
May 17-19, 2001 Tenth Annual Astrology
& Stock MarketConference
NYC
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