WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET,
NEXT WEEK: July 23, 2001
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL
INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. STOCK OF THE MONTH CLUB
4. ASTRONUT
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
NO RECESSION
The US economy is NOT going into recession (barely), yet it will obviously
have a negative 3Qtr GDP. We plan on becoming increasingly liquid
and defensive pre-Fall. Whether Alan reduces interest rates again in August
is a non-event in our opinion. He already used up his six gun. Bush has
also fired his two barrel shot gun [tax cuts and increasing allowable IRA
contributions.] The use of Social security money into the stock market
is a bad idea and likely to fail. Bush will increase government spending
in 2003 for his re-election campaign, but we are getting ahead of ourselves
here.
Some bearish technicians are hoping for a replay of October 98. Still,
only a –2.4% decline in GDP 3Qtr (our forecast) is NOT that bad, especially
since it will be followed by a positive 4th Qtr. At this moment we
do not see the market taking out its March/April lows. The question is how
close we get to them.
Will DJIA be in range for 10,000-11,000 and close 2001 at 10,800 as we
forecast last year?
Will Nasdaq again break 1800? We think not. Still, IT IS NOW TIME
to rebalance portfolios. Last week, we sold Motorola (MOT) and bought Nokia
(NOK). We plan similar pair shifting, with an eye to reducing reduce US
dollar exposure in our global portfolios by 10% this season.
M & A MONEY TALKS
Sanmina [SANM] is buying fellow contract electronics manufacturer
SCI Systems [SCI]; MARS bought out Royal Canine and Comcast will “merge”
with T. This is THE BIG investing game this Summer and Fall. Our preferred
trading strategy is to identify companies that will exceed diminished expectations,
i.e. whose results are better than analysts feared, e.g. Boeing (BA), NOKIA
(NOK), PALM, etc., and book profits quickly.
RAISE CASH – TRADE MORE
KEYDATES: JULY 30
DJIA: 10600
Pivot
NASDAQ: Resistance 2150
NIKKEI Continue long-term
accumulation
EURO: Continue
long-term accumulation
2. Now that they are under the threat of the hot seat, unlike last year,
we are agreeing more with Wall Street analysts. For example, Goldman Sachs
recently started coverage of independent oil refiners Sunoco [SUN], Tosco
[TOS] and Valero Energy [VLO] with market outperform ratings. Analyst
Arjun Murti wrote that Sunoco's key strengths include a "diversified and
high-grade asset base with strong presence in refining, marketing, chemicals
and high-return coking and logistics businesses; a disciplined management
team with a contrarian investment style; and a strong balance sheet." I agree.
He put a price target of $50 on Sunoco, saying a successful restructuring
has not been reflected in the company's share price. I agree up to
41. We previously sold SUN at 38, but may rebuy under 32 for our P1 price
target of $41. Thereafter I will reassess or place a 2-point trailing stop.
FYI: He put a price target of $59 on Tosco and $57 for Valero.
Salomon Smith Barney said on Thursday that it lowered investment ratings
on seven real estate companies to "under perform" from "neutral," calling
the first half of 2001 a "junk rally" driven by smaller, second-tier names
with above-average dividend yields. "We believe the higher yielding REITs'
stock price
performance will likely stall for the balance of the year while the blue
chip or higher quality REITs will out perform," analyst Jonathan Litt wrote.
Among the companies downgraded was AFUND favorite Sovran Self Storage. I
believe commercial REIT’s should be downgraded. On the other hand,
we are holding SSS until 30 OB.
3. Given a new market cycle, we have re-instituted our
STOCK OF THE MONTH CLUB 2001.
Our July 16 pick was Nokia (NOK) at 17.17 with a trading target of 19.95
and an investing target of 24.
4. Ananova - Italians work better 'when having affairs' [http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_343317.html]
Researchers for the Women and Life Quality Association found 56% worked
harder if they had an affair at work. The study found flirty e-mails and notes
with double meanings were the most popular means of starting an affair. One
manager told researchers: "Work should be erotic: It is a large part of our
life and when you work without feelings the results are not so good."
Of those interviewed, 12% said they met colleagues outside of work time
with the aim of having an affair. Another 12% said they remained at work longer
in an attempt to meet a colleague who they had their eye on. The employees
with the highest libidos were found in Milan, where 25% claimed they were
having an affair at work. Is this enough to warrant an upgrade of
the MIBTEL? The Italian economy is slowing, and government revenues are
falling. Will Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi be able to fulfill election
pledges to reduce taxes while trimming its deficit to meet European Union
targets? I plan to be in Italy next April, and may or may not report
on what or who I find!
Ananova - US firm produces loo rolls without the hole [http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_348746.html]
Kimberley-Clark (KMB) is reportedly going to fill the space with tissue
paper, doubling the amount on one roll. According to the BBC, running out
of toilet paper is one of the commonest complaints faced by companies. Tissue
product manager Tracy Mark said it costs a lot as a result to employ "refillers".
We are therefore immediately upgrading KBM to an intermediate term Buy 55
OB with an 18 month price target of 62 for conservative portfolios. Co-incidentlaly,
last Tuesday, Salomon Smith Barney Monday analyst Chip Dillon upgraded Kimberly-Clark
[KMB] to buy from outperform, citing the 25 percent drop in the stock's
price since early December.
5. "The U.S. dollar today is essentially what the Internet craze was a
year ago. We believe it's a balloon waiting for a pin.
Seymour Schulich, chairman, Franco-Nevada
HW: That is a very serious risk indeed.
"For the third year running, 2001 was supposed to be the year the U.S.
dollar finally took a fall against the euro and other currencies. But halfway
through the year, the dollar remains strong and is widely expected to make
further gains in the months a head. What gives?
The basic answer is that foreigners retain a nearly unshakable faith in
the U.S. economy. They keep investing money in the United States; confident
that returns there will be higher than most other places and that risks are
lower.
Michael Sesit, London WSJ
HW: Unfortunately, that perception is likely to change by next year.
"We believe that we're at the beginning of a five-year bull market in gold"
Pierre Lassonde, President, Franco-Nevada Mining
HW: I won’t bet against you for the first two years at least.
6. Din of Dollar Bears almost deafening [http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature995062400.html]
Brainstorms- Ten Rules for Investing in Gold [http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorms.php?id=97]
6. READER: Do you agree that with the upcoming Saturn Opposition Pluto
Transits -- starting August 5th through May, 2002 -- that the Dow and NASDQ
will be down quite severely? And that the best strategy for conservative
investors would be to stay out of these markets and wait until June of 2002
to re-enter?
HW: No, as stocks markets anticipate several months in advance of economic
recovery, you should re-enter the market in late Winter/early Spring. Going
fully to cash is one option this month, NOT next. Also, I would begin
to raise cash levels either by selling any overvalued stocks or by placing
close stops on 1/3- 1/2 of your portfolio.
READER: One quick follow-up question: Would agree that from now on
(even with the Saturn/Pluto Transits) that holding GOLD STOCKS is the right
thing to do?
HW: Yes, from 5%-10% of the portfolio, depending on your portfolio objectives
and composition.
READER: STEM looks very interesting. A +10% gain yesterday while
most markets were dropping.
HW: Yes. We plan to sell it soon; hopefully, it will pop to close
to 10 on favorable Bush news.
READER: What is your current view of IBM.
HW: We sold it previously at 118. However, it continues to be our
favorite DJIA stock. We are hoping to be able to buy it again the first
week of August, ideally at 98-102.
READER: It's hard to think a company with good fundamentals, like NOK,
could get so wiped out by this market. NOK is [now] lower than your stop.
Is it still safe to buy today or should I wait until Monday or Tuesday of
next week?
HW: Don’t forget its stock was ridiculously over priced before. Please
note our stops are end of day, not intraday. Tomorrow morning Nokia reports.
If you are cautious, wait until tomorrow. If you don’t care, as I
don’t (I will buy more if “bad”), then buy. The correct
course of action depends upon your investing risk tolerance and/or how much
trading excitement you desire.
READER: You have done it again! As per your email confirmation, I
loaded up on NOK at $17 per share. I was very pleased to hear the pre-market
trades of NOK at $19 per share and futures are up strongly. Thank you very
much and keep up the excellent work!
HW: My pleasure.
READER: Gidday from Australia. Yes news of IHI and its potential has reached
the bottom of the earth. Could you please give me your view on the following?
When do you see the stock significantly rising, say ABOVE $1.60?
When and do you expect the stock to reach A)$5 B)$15 C)$50 D)$100 E)$150?
What would be the dividends associated with the above figures, and do you
see $100 or $150 as a real possibility?
HW: THE IHI STORY Part
XV includes our latest EPS estimates. Yes, I see $100 or $150 a real
possibility, especially when its Bermuda horoscope (Future NYSE listing?)
becomes active. As to the timing of its move, that is an open question.
However $5-$10 is achievable short term. When exactly? Whenever other
analysts see the same potential for IHI* that I do. I see its technical stock
pattern improving with positive money flows and its current price above its
200 MA. Most important, positive astrological indicators, both short and
intermediate term, are now being activated.
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BY THE STARS.
(
c) 2001 All rights reserved. The Astrologers
Fund "Always a Stellar Performance"
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Author: INVESTING
BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING BY THE STARS
(01)
May 17-19, 2001 Tenth Annual Astrology & Stock MarketConference
NYC
DISCLAIMER: PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE
OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING
RESULTS.
INVESTORS ARE REMINDED TO PERFORM THEIR OWN
DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. ALWAYS INDEPENDENLY
INVESTIGATE AND FULLY UNDERSTAND ALL RISK EFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT.
The Astrologers Fund Inc. Accepts No
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From Any Use Of Its Report Or It's Contents. The AstrologersFund
Inc. Or Its Clients Usually Holds Positions In The Stocks and/or
MarketInstruments Mentioned And May Buy Or Sell At Any Time Without
Notice depending on market conditions and personal financial conditions.
This InformationIs In No Way A Representation To Buy Or Sell
Securities, Bonds, Options Or Futures. This information
is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment
decisions, nor should it be construedas advice designed to
meet the investment needs of any particular investor.
ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR LICENSED
FINANCIAL PLANNER OR BROKER BEFORE BUYING OR SELLING ON
THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE ASTROLOGERS FUND Inc.
* IHI is an AFUND client.
** We will be reporting on Cancall (O.CCCA) over the summer.
This is a company that I received 2 million shares (free) with
10 million additional shares optioned at .02. I have
also bought in the open market for clients and myself. Naturally I
am MOST eager to see them become VERY successful.
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