WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
"Financial Astrology for successful investors and traders"
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: MARCH 12, 2001
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. WSNW PRICE INCREASES
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
1. BUY ANY PRICE-SELL ANY PRICE
Is Nasdaq worth 2500 or 1800? Most important, will Nasdaq close above
2500 on December 31? For years, many Hi-Technology stocks were wildly
overpriced. Now, a number of Technology blue chips are mildly undervalued.
Could they drop further… a lot further? Yes. Is it worthwhile
to buy and hold them now? We think so. However, some portfolio defensiveness
should be considered: 25% allocation for international holdings- Europe/Japan,
food and beverage companies or Bonds is our current recommendation.
Last Monday, the morning session of the Nikkei closed at 12,223, our long
term accumulate target. According to the FT Lex Column, the recent decline
is exaggerated by the charge in the index composition last March. “If
the constituents had remained constant, the Nikkei would be at 16,422, not
12,682” (as of Friday close). Next week, start or add to Yen (Japanese)
exporters. After all you most likely own Japanese products in your home.
If so, why wouldn’t you own any Japanese stocks in your portfolio?
Like Abby Cohen, we recommend full investment (low cash levels and little
margin) until early April. Thereafter, we advise a steady reduction (high
cash levels) as we approach April 16. The exception is energy stocks
as the XOI is close to 565 target. Therefore we have started selling,
and placing close stops on these stocks at this time.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said late Tuesday
that "the worst may be over" for the US economy. I would call this “wishful
thinking. While I had high hopes for consensus politics in Washington,
the Bush administration has ended bi-partisanship unnecessarily. This could
have strong economic consequences later this year: Accordingly, we have increased
the odds for a recession this August to 21.04%.
NOTE: March 18-25 I will be cruising the Caribbean. Therefore both market
updates and the next two WSNW may be off our usual schedule. While not trading,
we plan to be long Tax season positional trades with wide stops for non-core
positions.
HOPE FOR THE BEST; PREPARE FOR THE WORST. Current recession odds:
21.04%
KEYDATES: March 19, 20
DJIA: 10600-10944
NASDAQ: S1 2200 S2 2000 S3 1950
JAPAN: Buy more
2. On January 15, we suggested Yahoo lovers wait for 18 to begin long-term
accumulation. Last week, obedient subscribers were rewarded. Internut addicts
plus aggressive investors bought last week under 17 for a possible run from
22 to 27. Still, personally, other than trading, I would not freshly
buy for any Saturn portfolios until 12, or Jupiter until 15, if reached respectively.
With Cisco under 21, we bought more for most clients on Friday. We
re-iterate our Strong trading and investing buy- our highest rating, albeit
with a revised lower target than last given Feb. 12. Short term (trading
target) 25; long term 31 to 36. Like IBM, a little Cisco now belongs
in most long term portfolios.
WSNW subscribers can review past
UP STARS/DOWN STARS.
3. In our last Astronut feature, we called attention to the twin Bush market
themes of Texas and Megagrowth. This past week, Miss Texas was named
Miss USA 2001. Coincidence? We think not. How can investors
benefit? Energy! Quoting Charles Lewis of the non-partisan Center
for Public Integrity: “I call it the oil and gas administration.
Fourteen of Bush’s top 25 career patrons are oil or energy –related.
Unfortunately, many of these companies are selling for astronomical P/e’s.
Still, there is Texas energy value in Parker Drilling (PKD). Its announcement
in January that it intends to relocate its headquarters to Houston from Tulsa
was a clear buy signal at the time. Valero
Energy Corporation (VLO) is a Fortune 500 company based in San Antonio,
(which along with Sunoco (SUN)), we believe will outperform the SPX. Also
based in Houston, offering a respectable 7% yield, and for obvious reasons,
one of the best REITS in the country is
Weingarten Realty. All three favorites will be buys during the late
spring/summer pull back.
According to the All Africa Global Media, Zambia's tourism industry is expected
to contribute US $15 million to the national economy from the Summer Solstice
solar eclipse event alone. Tourism minister Harrington estimated that each
tourist would on average spend approximately $500 on a one-day stay. "This
means that all things equal, for an average stay of three days, the Zambian
economy will earn not less than $15 million from this event."
But how are foreign investors to play this? Last week, only two listed
companies traded on the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LUSE). Standard Chartered Bank
and Zambian Breweries Plc, recorded five and 19, trades respectively bringing
the total number of trades to 24 trades. The usually active companies on
LUSE market that did not record trading are Chilanga Cement and Zambia Sugar
Company Plc. Both issued cautionary statements regarding change of their
major shareholders. So perhaps despite the benefits of a solar eclipse,
astrological investors would be well to look elsewhere. (More on this breaking
Solar Eclipse story to follow.)
4. The cost of “market insurance”, i.e., Silver subscriptions
to WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK, will be increasing 20% to $360 annually.
Current and prospective subscribers can lock in the old rate of $300 for one
year or save 44% by paying $500 for two years until International Astrology
Day (March 20, 2001).
5. “I'm not sure we've seen the worst in earnings. I don't get any
warm and fuzzy feeling about a second-half recovery.
Ed Walczak, manager, Vontobel U.S. Value Fund
HW: I agree. With luck, August will be the worst; without luck, next
May.
"Share prices resisted further declines following recent sharp falls."
Kazue Mayuzumi, deputy COO, Nikko Securities
HW: Given our long term Nikkei buy of 12,222, perhaps the net readership
of WSNW in Japan is larger than we think!
6. Smut
Glut Has Porn Sites Hurting.
HW: If sex selling isn’t growing, Bush’s budget surplus forecasts
may be in error!
7. READER: Is the Nasdaq, obviously full of Uranus ruled stocks, so crazy
this week and now at 2179 because tr Mercury is close to exact conj with tr
Uranus?
HW: I believe Nasdaq is acting a lot saner that it did last March when it
was 5000. With patience, a buy and hold of Nasdaq should bring a respectable
12 month return. But then, investors are far from patient these days.
READER: If after Apr 15 and all May is going to be such a low time, should
we wait until then to make some long term investments, i.e. Japan, instead
of getting fully invested in this low dip now?
HW: That is a time target. Japan reached our price target.
They do not always come together. One solution is to commit one half now,
and second half later.
READER: Since the Nasdaq is below 2200, have you reevaluated CLN, or are
you sticking with your previous target of "5 to 8 in March or May"? Currently
it is down 50% from when I bought, so am wondering whether bail out now at
a loss or to keep faith.
HW: Nasdaq could drop to 1950 or below if it does not rally soon. CLN’s
price target was by May and we are still hopeful. FYI: Money management
- a 50% loss is generally reserved for options, not stocks where 20% is more
often the rule. Still, at $1.25, if appropriate, you might double up
on CLN; we have.
READER: Please correct me if I am wrong. It seems investors have lost their
patience re IHI a while ago and don't believe they will ever get to commercial
production (I didn't say I thought that). This year from your estimated earnings
it would appear they would earn about 1.00 so at some point the price starts
to look stupid at current level. Do you think now with the current US market
it is likely that the beginning of the IHI run may be nearer the July / August
period?
HW: Actually the opposite seems to be true. A number of former investors
are getting interested again in IHI, given how close it is to production.
They are currently undergoing final equipment testing. Should they begin FULL
production this summer, our 2001 earning’s forecast which were .43
(not $1) could be close to on target, although perhaps on the high side.
Still your point is well taken. Also, when IHI is at long last in production,
perhaps after one of the next major earthquakes, it will be discovered.
READER: Since Nasdaq 2200 didn’t hold, does it now look like it might
go to 1492 for a bottom? Right now I am scared to buy more IBM even at $99.
HW: While we don’t think it will break 2000 or 1950, it could go much
lower into our May time frame. I am a contrarian value player, which means:
I will like to buy low and sell high. I would recommend buying half
a position this week and saving half for May for long term investment purposes.
READER: Re: WSNW Alert
50B Thanks.
HW: Thank me Monday if/when we both make money on this trade.
PLEASE NOTE the cost of “market insurance”, i.e., Silver subscriptions
to WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK will be increasing 20% to $360 annually. Current
and prospective subscribers can lock in the old rate of $300 forone yearor
save 44% by paying $500 for two years until International AstrologyDay(March
20, 2001).
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TRADINGBY THE STARS.
(c) 2001 All rights reserved.
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING
BY THE STARS (01)
May 17,2001 Ninth Annual Astrology & Stock MarketConference
NYC
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RESULTS.
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* We will be reporting on Cancall (O.CCCA) aka VuScreennext
month. This is a company that I own 2 million shares (free)with
10million additional shares optioned at .02. I have also bought inthe
openmarket for clients and myself. Naturally I am MOST eager to seethem
becomeVERY successful.
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