WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: MARCH 5, 2001
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1. MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. ASTROLOGY/STOCK MARKET SEMINAR
5. QUOTES
6. ON THE WEB
7. LETTERS
1. WE TOLD YOU SO
Loews Cineplex Entertainment has just raised Manhattan movie ticket prices
to $10 in response to “rising costs.” Yet this is “old”
inflation, not “new” inflation. Real inflation is declining.
How can this be? For years, the labor dept has been under reporting
inflation. While old bottlenecks like energy and home costs will make it seem
like inflation is rising to 4.94%, it is really DROPPING to 4.94%! Energy
costs will stabilize below $28; housing prices, helped by lower interest rates,
should not rise above 5% due to the intermediate term US economic slowdown/recession
ahead. Will Alan Greenspan, like many army generals, “fight the last
war?” Remember when last Fall pundits claimed there was a major labor
shortage? No one (except astrologers) seemed to foresee the massive layoffs
in 2001. The current choice is between “stagflation” or “inflation
as usual.” This war will be fought with the 4 bullets left in
Alan Greenspan’s six shooter and Bush’s two barrel shot gun.
However, later, after the US dollar drops below 105, we will have a
different story to tell.
JUPITER IN CANCER
Long term astrological investors are preparing for Jupiter to enter Cancer
in July 2000. This will be a cosmic assist to "boring" consumer noncyclical
(IYK) such as food companies Ahold (AHO), Brinker International (EAT), Dole
(DOL), Hain (HAIN) and Heinz (HNZ). Other potential Cancer themes include
home builders CTX, HOV and KBH as well as home improvement stores Home Depot
(HD) and Lowe (LOW), Extended Stay (ESA) and ocean hospitality such as Carnival
(CCL) and packaging companies like Earthshell (Erth).
If the stock market IS a form of gambling, it is significant that British
horseracing was suspended since last Tuesday to prevent further spread of
foot-and-mouth disease. What effect will this have on the volatility of British
markets? Until the FTSE drops below 5500, I have little appetite.
However, a 5000 test may get me drooling (not from Mad cow disease!).
In a surprise move Wednesday, Japan's central bank announced it would lower
the official discount rate by 10 basis points to 0.25 percent. How long
before the BOJ will pay you to borrow Yen? The world's second-biggest
economy is still slowing down they discovered. Duh! The Japanese market
closed at 15 year lows last week at 12,261 and is finally approaching our
FIRST long term Nikkei target buy of 12,222. We are NOW ready to begin
serious accumulation! Long-term investors are advised to buy and hold
select Blue chips such as Sony (SNE), Matsushita (MC) or Japan itself (EWJ)
until 2002-3.
Wall Street Subscribers see our
Japan2002 for more.
KEY DATES: March 5, 9
DJIA: 10500 Pivot
NASDAQ: 2200 Pivot
JAPAN: Accumulate
2. With Oracle (ORCL) dropping slightly below value on Friday, we upgraded
it from “Sell” to “market perform.”
3. Bush portfolio strategizing revolves around two related themes: MEGAGROWTH
and TEXAS.
Freightliners, of 18-wheeler fame, plans to start selling a four-wheel drive
made by DCX based on German military transport. It is called Unimog and makes
the hummer look like a tinker toy. It is 9’7” tall, (the
front seat is reached by using a three step ladder), 20 feet long, weighs
12,500lbs and gets 10 miles to the gallon of diesel fuel - less than the most
fuel hungry sport utility vehicle. In other words, DCX must believe this
is the perfect car for your Bush tax refund! As for Daimler-Chrysler (DCX),
it is not likely to freshly enter any SRI portfolios on this account.
A warning though: as a precautionary measure, Marine guards have been ordered
to immediately open fire with heavy weapons on any Unimog they see within
100 yards of a U.S. embassy. For more read:
Monster SUV adds to life's challenges. While I previously considered
some accumulation of DCX at 40 or better, now (at 49), we will ignore it.
The other Bush trend is Texas (not California as with Clinton). Think Cowboy
boots, not Bruno Magli; think Compaq (HQ: Austin) over HWP (HQ: Palo Alto).
Note: when in comes to energy, Democratic Sen. Steve Peace, who was one of
the primary authors of the state's 1996 energy deregulation law, urged the
governor to seize the state's power plants, many of which are owned by Texas
companies. Just revenge? "This is the only choice the kidnappers have given
us," Peace said. “Either take control of the generation plants "or raise
the Lone Star flag to the top of the Capitol and give up the ghost."
California Governor Davis promises power rates would remain unchanged for
Edison customers. If he succeeds, he should be appointed to head the FAA where
he will demand all airlines do NOT raise prices while improving service.
This is all crazy. Prices WILL go up, but not before California state credit
may fall into the toilet. While I have not checked California’s horoscope,
I would advise CA resident subscribers and bond holders to consider scaling
back their ownership of California state credit/debit instruments - THE SOONER
THE BETTER.
4. NY CONFERENCE 2001
. Despite an evening affair, visitors from as far away as Australia
and Russia are planning to attend. What better excuse to visit NYC
in May?
5. “We now expect NASDAQ to complete the second and final up thereof
over the next month at 2890-3029. Thereafter the third down move of the great
bear market should decline substantially lower than 1900 later this year.”
Steve Frenkel, Frenkly Speaking
HW: If 2200 doesn’t hold in May, then what you are forecasting
is possible in the Summer or the Fall. Still not my bet (yet), especially
if the markets rise to 3200-3500.
"They're going to wait until the regular meeting and then cut by 50 (basis
points), but the market certainly thinks they should do something sooner.
The tape is dead."
Tom Schrader, equities trader, Legg Mason
HW: That was last week’s worry. Next week, they will think-
it is coming in under two weeks.
"Fear of recession in the U.S. has come as a major shock, but just as last
year you saw how things can overshoot on the upside, they can overshoot on
the downside too. The reality is usually something in between."
Andrew Carter, head of UK equities, Gartmore Investment Management
HW: I always try to remember the story of the Three Bears, just like our
George W does.
6.
'Virtual' stock markets help new investors.
7. READER: Do you see any astrology sign for rate cut?
HW: Don’t think you need astrology to answer that.
READER: A few weeks back I thought CSCO had a chance of a low around
30. Last week's low of 25 coincided with the 78.6% retracement of the 1998-2000
rally and the 70.7% retracement of the 1994-2000 rally. This is a significant
price level, which has the potential to mark a low in this stock for several
months. If it fails, a move to 18.25 is likely.
Trading Implication:
Another piece of evidence in favor of long Nasdaq trades with a stop below
last week's low.
HW: Excellent trading advice for the next two months.
READER: I've been in and out of IHI more than a couple of times over the
past four years or so. It always scares me away, not to mention the craziness
in the markets since last year at this time. As it would seem that IHI is
poised for it's long awaited vault into production, possibly in March, may
I ask you for a bit of encouragement to muster the faith to get my feet wet,
yet again.
HW: Buying is a question of risk and reward. At these levels, the risk seems
VERY mild compared to other stocks. The reward is potentially huge.
As to size of purchase, this depends both on your conviction and how much
you like to gamble. Usually we recommend buying in three lots. Now seems
as good as any time to start with your new first buy.
PLEASE NOTE the cost of “market insurance”, i.e., Silver subscriptions
to WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK will be increasing 20% to $360 annually. Current
and prospective subscribers can lock in the old rate of $300 forone yearor
save 44% by paying $500 for two years until International AstrologyDay(March
20, 2001).
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Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS, THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY,TRADING
BY THE STARS (01)
May 17,2001 Ninth Annual Astrology & Stock MarketConference
NYC
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RESULTS.
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* We will be reporting on Cancall (O.CCCA) aka VuScreennext
month. This is a company that I own 2 million shares (free)with 10million
additional shares optioned at .02. I have also bought inthe openmarket
for clients and myself. Naturally I am MOST eager to seethem becomeVERY
successful.
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