1. MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. AFUND UIT
7. LETTERS
NEW PRESIDENT AND NEW ANIMAL
Twin upcoming events, the inauguration Saturday, and the Chinese New
Year, Wednesday, are the key Terrestial/Celestial markers until early February.
Instead of experiencing a honeymoon period in Washington after taking office, George W. Bush can expect his every move analyzed, scrutinized and criticized. Bush wants Reaganesque tax cuts. Yet, looking at his inauguration chart on Saturday January 20, 2000 12:02pm Washington DC, we believe he is not following Ronald Reagan in one important respect- utilizing astrological services for purposes of improved activity timing. Let us hope he corrects this fault before it is too late.
CHINESE NEW YEAR OF THE SNAKE 4699
“2001 is the year of the "Snake Sleeping in Winter". This denotes a
year for preparation, with potential hardship and difficulties to overcome.
The snake builds up sufficient resources to last out the winter in comfort.
So should all in 2001.
Chinese or lunar New Year customs include paying off debts, purchasing
new clothes, thoroughly cleaning the house, enjoying sumptuous family feasts,
offering sacrifices to the gods, and giving friends and relatives "red
envelopes" containing "lucky” money.
Accordingly, we both recommend reducing any remaining margin and credit
card debt, and while hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.
While Japan INC. (except exporters) dwell in misery until Mid-March, don’t overlook rumors that Chinese banks are carrying a considerable proportion of bad debt up to 40%, potentially another 1998 Asian crisis in the making. The US going into an economic slowdown/recession means less Chinese made goods will be exported to the US.
KEY DATES: January 22, 24
DJIA: Box 10,400 to 11,000
NASDAQ: 2500 to 3000
CHINA: Sell/Avoid.
2. Now that IBM has exceded our trading target of 110+, we are downgrading it from a strong trading AND investing buy, to an investing Out Perform/Hold until our intermediate term target of 120 is reached.
WSNW Subscribers can review past 2001 UP STARS/DOWN STARS ratings.
3. Cross discipline learning is not only the rage in academia, but also
among money managers. For example, hungry investors reading Gramercy Tavern’s
chef Tom Colicchio’s new book THINK LIKE A CHEF can learn modern portfolio
management:
“You add the vegetables a little at a time to a pan of boiling water,
because adding them all at once brings down the temperature of the water
too much. The way you judge that is, you listen to the sputter the water
makes as the vegetables go in.”
Substitute “stocks” for vegetables and this is excellent advice on
how to buy or sell stocks in a highly volatile (boiling) market.
Desktop computers have made their way onto most Chinese urban residents'
wish lists. A recent survey revealed that desktop computers ranked far
ahead of other home electronic appliances on the respondents' to-buy lists,
according to the Zhongguo Gaige Bao (China Reform News). The results
showed that 14.7 percent of the polled families wanted to buy a desktop
computer, while 6.7% had their sights set upon a color television set,
and 6.2% would like to cool down with an air conditioner. Another 4.8%
desire microwave ovens, 2.8% are looking to buy sound systems and 2.4%
want refrigerators.
This bodes well for IBM and Sony (SNE). We continue to recommend
gradual accumulation of both stocks.
4. "It's going to be a market of rotation. That's how you're going to
make money."
Brian Conroy, head US equity trading, J.P. Morgan
HW: That worked last year and will work again this year.
"We expected the markets to come down. We needed a correction because
the prices had to get in line with the earnings."
Alice Rivlin, former Fed Vice Chair
HW: We expect and need another one by this Spring.
"People had no sense of valuation in the highflying, tech-happy late
1990s, and that had to change. Graybeards like me stayed the course because
we've seen manias before and they always end badly. You want to invest
in companies with proven records of product, earnings, cash flows and dividends,
and these are value stocks."
Neil T. Eigen, Fund manager, J. & W. Seligman
HW: Right on Neil, but don’t overlook the cosmic factor: favorable
horoscopes and stock sectors.
5. Despite what you read: Toy
Santa wins stock picking contest – A wind-up toy Santa Claus outdid
eight professionals in Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper's annual stock-picking
contest last year, Canada is a great place for investors. As for
the quality of the advice of Canadian market professionals, I will make
no comment. This year the paper has invited an orangutan at the Toronto
zoo to make its random choice.
“The cheap loonie along with strong demand for natural resources plus
favorable political and astrological indications will make this one of
the best, if not the single best G7 economy in 2001.
We maintain our strong buy on Canada.”
WSNW subscribers can view our updated Canadian post at 2001
CANADA.
Astrology: Jeff Bezos and Amazon.com.
For predictions for the next year, see Chinatown
Online - Year of the Snake.
For your Weekly Chinese Horoscope, be amused at Chinese
Horoscope This Week.
6. Astrologers Fund, Inc. | UIT 2001 is up over 21% since January 2. The Saturnine portion was closed out this past Friday locking over 27% for 2001, while the standard UIT runs until the end of the year. WSNW Subscribers please note some stocks should have profit stops in place.
7. READER: IBM gave me a target up to 113... target not over due
for 5 mos..... Congrats on your IB BUMMER call...
HW: Thank you. Short term our IBM target was 110-115, long term, it
is back to 140.
READER: Do you still recommend buying EWG now as a way to profit from
the weak Euro? Will you explain, please, how this index fund bought with
dollars and, when redeemed, will be redeemed with dollars, gives the shareholder
the advantage of the Euro currency increase? Also, does your Mother own
this stock? :)
HW: The problem with European stocks in 2000 was that even though many
of the stocks did well, US shareholders lost out due to the ultra strong
US dollar. Eurostock profits were in Euros and last year, the Euro was
weak. This year, we expect the Euro to gain further strength against
the US dollar. Therefore, long term US shareholders will outperform in
2001/2, despite an expected decline in some of the underlying shares and
a retest of DAX 6100-6000.
PS. My mother’s largest core stock holdings are my two favorite
“I” stocks – IBM and IHITF.
READER: I am a new investor of one year and own 500 shares of AMD at
$18 per share.
What does your comment about AMD fair pricing at $23 mean?
HW: It means now that it has reached 23 (and gained more than 25% in
a week), I would recommend either be ready to sell it, place a stop around
21-22, or sell covered options depending on what AMD means in your portfolio,
i.e. whether you bought it for a trade or intermediate or long term investment.
READER: Congrats on your IBM call. You have really been hot lately.
I am proud of you. Hey Help me out. I am planning a cruise with my
wife in the spring. Can you recommend a good cruise line?
HW: Have not cruised it before, but I will be speaking at the Inner
Voyage 5th Anniversary Caribbean Cruise/Conference March 18-25, 2001.
Call 1-800-546-7871 for details. If you mention my name, I believe it is
still good for a $300 discount.
READER: I currently own X shares of IHITF. This represents about
5% of my portfolio. My problem is that all these shares are held
in retirement accounts. If IHITF goes to the moon, as I strongly
believe it will eventually, I can't touch the money for 20 years or longer.
My wife suggested we pick up another 5,000 to 10,000 shares in a taxable
account that we could get at sooner.
I know you are recommending value + growth and I know you are not a
financial planner and I know IHI is a client of yours, but am curious as
to your opinion.
HW: As any happily married man will tell you, it is usually wise to
do what your wife asks! In this case, I believe you will become wealthy
as well as wise, if you act soon. J
READER: Any guidance short/intermediate term?
HW: The usual: Sell overpriced stocks; buy under priced stocks!
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