1. MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
WHAT ARE THE CURRENT ODDS?
2001 Economic slowdown 100%
2001 Mild Recession
32.08%
2001/2 Serious Recession 14.15%
January is Orange - full of astrologically Red and Yellow Trading days.
The Zeitgeist is no longer positive and could stay negative after Tuesday’s
Lunar eclipse up until OPEC's meetings [a possible buying opportunity]
and then back to positive closer to the election, in other words more trading
markets.
Our Advice: Maintain a defensive posture in portfolio management and
trade more often in 2001.
Protect profits/Take losses around 15%/10% price movements.
Unlike most, we were not bullish on the retail sector in late 2000. The reason is now obvious to all. While January is national bankruptcy month, already retailer Montgomery Ward and discount retailer Bradlees have announced that they are going out of business. Given there was never any real justification for the 400% increase in retail space in the past decade; the inevitable correction is JUST beginning. Expect brutal competition throughout 2001 and Darwinian survival of the fittest in 2002.
JANUARY’S BIG THREE
January earnings, OPEC meeting, plus a January 9TH Lunar eclipse:
Could market watchers craving entertainment and thrills want anything
more?
I had initially not planned on posting a 2001 UIT given the overwhelming
need to trade in 2001.
However, since Barron's published a nice profile on me in their January
1 issue, it inspired me to give another benchmark UIT for next year's story!
As of Friday’s close, it was up 7.4% for the year.
WSNW subscribers should read Astrologers
Fund, Inc. | UIT 2001.
Lunar Eclipse, dead ahead: Whether acceleration of last week’s trend or a reversal and then a decline thereafter, this week is a good time to protect some of your portfolio by selling some stocks, writing calls, hedging with shorts or buying a bear fund. What to do individually varies according to one’s portfolio’s risk/reward objectives.
Key Dates: January 9, 10
DJIA: 11,000 Ceiling establishing
NASDAQ: Trade - don’t “buy and hold”
XOI: 565 Ceiling
IXT: More Distribution advisable
2. We have revised Xerox (XRX) from a speculative Buy to a trading Buy with a target of 8 to 10. We think Alan has companies like XRX in mind when lowering interest rates.
3. A deepening recession and shrinking job market have strengthened
the conviction of many Taiwanese men with transsexual leanings to resort
to sex change as a way out of their economic problems.
[For details read Recession
drives Taiwanese men to change their sex.] Given the major economic
challenges in China today, this is very understandable. We maintain
our Avoid rating on all three Chinese markets (Mainland, Hong Kong and
Taiwan) in 2001.
The widow of a German man who accidentally strangled himself in a bizarre sexual act has no right to claim insurance, Germany's Federal Supreme Court ruled. This bodes well for the German insurance industry, given the sexual desires of some of the German bourgeoisie. We therefore puritanically re-iterate our outperform rating on the German DAX for 2001/2002!
4. "I think there'll be more pain and suffering."
Chuck Hill, director of research, First Call
HW: No pain, no gain.
"I don't want to fight the Fed. But where are they?"
Ralph Acampora, chief technical strategist, Prudential Securities
HW: Wednesday Alan responded to your pleading, but at what cost? A
short term gain for longer term pain by avoiding working off the excesses
of an overvalued stock market.
5. SUPERFORCE posts market forecasts for the upcoming week each Friday by predicting peaks in positive ions -- which spur greed and market gains -- or negative ions that spark fear and market declines. The system uses a set of eight equations that track the positive to negative ion ratio -- during full or new moons for example. Of course, Solar Wind speed (as well as news), can override the Ion Ratio Forecast.
Investing
Lessons from 2001: Doing it right in 2001
A stock's stock price should be valued based on its earnings and assets.
6. I have a very large holding in ABGENIX. How do the Biotechs
look for 2001 considering their lack of P/E?
HW: I don’t track this one. The Bush Company is very big on BioTech,
so in general they could do well in the beginning of 2001, but I would
sell/protect major biotech holdings by this Summer. I only like the
ones that are dirt-cheap like CLN and STEM and I am prepared to sell quickly
if/when they rally.
READER: I would put my money equally on GE and CISCO if I were a US
investor. What are your views on these two Stocks for the next three months?
HW: Cisco yes, GE no.
READER: I would of thought it [IHI] would of sort of doubled by now!!
OK poor market and that but would you expect it to get over the dollar
and start moving in January or with the market you are predicting would
you expect not a huge movement until their next quarterly report?
HW: Yes I would and did expect that. They are beginning to accept
orders and their factory is going into production. It HAS TO BE discovered
sooner or later. Maybe it won’t be January, but it could; maybe it won’t
be February, but it could….
READER: Do you think soaring energy prices will affect the profitability
of IHI?
HW: Not at all. IHI homes potentially save THE most energy conservation.
If anything, any energy crisis would help IHI. What matters is that the
Robots have arrived and are being trained and that more orders are accepted.
They started intelligently with small, easy and profitably ones.
However, the potential order queue is astronomical. I can “taste” this
winner, and am thinking about soliciting bids to triple the size of my
wine cellar. J
READER: I am expecting a bit of weakness into JANUARY 2/3RD (including
today) and then a strong rebound into January 17-19, as I believe you do
as well. I think I am right on time and direction, however, I am not sure
which instrument to play. Which index will have the best relative
strength during this time period S&P or Nasdaq? I will be playing
RYDEX Funds so I want to be in the right leveraged Index Fund.
HW: Not exactly my thinking. However, the QQQ and NASDAQ have
the best risk/reward. However, we did not and do not expect a straight-line
move due to the January 9th Lunar eclipse. Read our daily market commentary
for our latest thinking.
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