Early Edition 8 am Friday December 22th:
1. MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. ASTRONUT
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. ISTASH
7. LETTERS
We believe Index investing should have another relatively poor year. Market Timing and Stock picking will once again be the way to invest in 2001. Just as investors bid stocks up to ridiculous heights, they are similarly dumping good stocks below their real value. While still not cheap, more and more TMT quality stocks are now reasonably priced for the traditional buy and hold strategy that will net a traditional10% annual appreciation (including dividends) over much of the next four years.
Given ever faster moving markets, we believe our Stock of the month club could be passé. Note how quickly Lucent both gained and lost value this month. Therefore we will now augment our Weekly UP STARS/DOWN STARS offerings for subscribers. This is part of an investing trend we favor in 2001: both long-intermediate term holds of undervalued stocks and increased trading for short term profits.
TEX-MEX PORTFOLIO
For obvious reasons, a Texas White House should favor TexMex stocks
in 2001 portfolios.
Like computers? Buy Dell or CPQ. Crave oil? How about Valero
(VLO). Need to spice up your portfolio returns? Perhaps Mexican stocks
like Cemex (CX) or Desc (DES) will be the right answer.
CHRISTMAS ECLIPSE DEAD AHEAD
Watch VERY closely December 26, the day after the Christmas Solar
Eclipse, for clues about the pre-inauguration (up to January 20) stock
market.
FYI: This eclipse begins in Boise, Idaho and then moves east. Europe
and Asia won't see the eclipse because it will be nighttime.
Key Dates: December 26
DJIA: 10800 Ceiling Testing
NASDAQ: Bargain Hunting
US$: Continue Distribution
Next week is New Years. Therefore, the Next issue of Wall Street, Next Week might be early, delayed or even skipped depending on how much Champagne I drink next Sunday.
2. Tech giants Cisco (CSCO) and Sun (SUNW) were upgraded last week. First from sell to market perform when reaching 42 and 28, given their value of $36 and $22 respectively. Then Cisco (Csco) was upgraded at 37 to long term accumulate given its close to value pricing.
3. While the government continues to report negligible inflation, natural gas prices quadrupled in 2000. Some say that due to high heating costs, consumers will be cutting back on luxury good consumption. I don’t believe the Donald (Trump) is likely to cut back on Tiffany purchases for his latest arm candy; therefore we maintain an outperform on TIF. However, we are somewhat concerned about a potential increase in immorality in New England, should cold unmarrieds revive the custom of bundling at night to keep warm.
“I don’t want to pay a lot of money” was the Christmas refrain this season. Last year, with Dom Perignon flying off the shelves to celebrate Y2k, luxury goods makers like LMVH sales soared. In 2001, we expect to see low-end consumer suppliers like Coke (KO) and MacDonald (MCD) similarly celebrate 2001 downsizing. However, following the Peter Lynch principle: “Buy what you know and like” I confess to my ignorance and can offer no additional commentary, as I am not a regular consumer of either product.
Warning: The following web post is not for squeamish Virgos:
Despite an increasing Euro, for reasons listed above and in
Eau de toilet, we are reflexively downgrading French Luxury goods maker
LVMH to intermediate term under perform.
4. “We do expect that inflation will remain well behaved and that
the slowdown in the economy will prevent inflation from accelerating.''
Cynthia Latta, economist, Standard & Poor
HW: I don’t agree. This younger generation (of investors)
is NOT well behaved.
"What Bush rally? Investors made their bets early. It's already been
discounted in the market."
Charles Pradilla, chief investment strategist, SG Cowen Securities
HW: Better late than never. Let's see after January 20, if it is
really discounted.
5. Mobile phone users howl at the moon.
Skeptic's Dictionary: full
moon and lunar effects.
HW: Oh Fooey!
6. I am current writing a monthly column for young adults for iSTASH.com.
You can read our stock of the month astrological reports there or on our
website at Istash Investing.
During Sagittarius we covered Sony, while Capricorn was GE. If you
want to teach your children about investing, Istash may be the website
for assistance:
“Our seven main content categories: Earn, Save, Invest, Spend, Give,
Talk and Play reflect our complete money management philosophy. Sure, we
think it's important for kids to be able to shop online the way they do
in the "real world." But as that classic ad campaign for Syms stores used
to say, "An educated consumer is our best customer!" You can't talk about
spending money without talking about saving it. And you can't talk about
saving money unless you first talk about making it. And you can't talk
about making it without understanding why it's important to give some of
it away.”
7. READER: [You give] absolutely no analysis whatsoever of why you
are bullish.
HW: I am not bullish. I am a cosmic value player and right
now a growing number of stocks are undervalued, and that means I wish to
buy or own them.
READER: Wanted to give you some feedback... Though a novice stock
trader (I studied the markets for about a year and a half and traded on
a very limited basis before plunging in) with a budding interest in astrology,
trading has gone well for me since obtaining a trial Gold subscription.
Good enough for me to decide to re-up for 2 YEAR. Thanks, happy holidays,
and keep up the good work.
HW: Thank you; very nice feedback indeed.
READER: Good Morning. I have been following your information
on IHI. Before I invest the question I have for you is the variance
in IPO dates. Perhaps you could explain to me. You give the
IPO date as May 17, 1993, which gives a fabulous Grand Trine [I'm just
learning about financial astrology]. However, on the Vancouver Stock
Exchange [CNDX] they give the date of first trade as December 11, 1992.
This results in quite a different chart. Please explain which one
is accurate and why. Thanks!
HW: The May 17 date is the correct one (except it was an RTO, not
an IPO).
READER: In deciding what option to buy - which is most important...the
OI or the Volume?
HW: What is more important is what price target you have for the
underlying instrument or stock and the cost of the option, i.e. how expensive
or cheap.
READER: I'm subscribing to you because you know more than I do and I want to learn, so please be clear and don't assume I know what you know if I did I wouldn't be a subscriber. Also a while back you said, "exit all trades" and I took that to mean sell everything, you later clarified it but it was too late, and it cost me some losses. If you were clearer the first time, I wouldn't have made that mistake. Some of us are less experienced and need things spelled out.
HW: My work is geared for more experienced traders. In fact, I loathe to give any exits, as I have so many differing subscribers with different time frames, risk/reward philosophies. Our stops are time and price alert warnings to exit or review your own parameters, rather than precise exit points which differ for investing positions as well as between day trading, and positional trading. We only give general guidelines to entry and exits and assume all participants have their OWN system that they double check our work against. This always gives the very best results.
Even in a down markets, one never sells everything due to tax consequences
as well as hedging.
It takes time to learn how to integrate your personal style with
another person’s system. We do not see our role as teachers but market
guides. The market will eventually be your teacher, which is why
we recommend trading with play money before using real money. Then, only
allocate small portions of capital until your system works. Then
never betting more than you can afford etc.
READER: You have predicted good things for T, what about their AWE,
the wireless part? This stock seems catastrophic.
HW: I prefer T. It is relatively cheap, while AWE is expensive,
but if you like any wireless it is as good as any of them.
READER: Your views are very interesting. Makes a good reading.
NASDAQ you mention 2525 and then 2200 in early 2001. Is your prediction
based on Astrological Inputs or Tech. Analysis? Also you mention NASDAQ
3200 + and then a decline. Isn’t this contradictory?
HW: 2001 will be up, down, up, down, up, down. In other words better
for traders than investors!
When trading, I use technicals and/or astrology. When investing,
I use fundamentals and/or astrology.
Some time next year I expect to see Nasdaq 2500, but lower is possible.
I also expect to see 3200 plus.
READER: The NASDAQ is at 2300. What do we from here?
HW: Depends on what you have been doing up to this time. If
you have money, you can buy; If not, hold. Listen to my Thursday’s radiobroadcast
http://www.abslive.com/.
READER: I must say it now: WSNW is the best medium not to loose money. I am very happy with my decision to enter the gold subscription. Have a nice Christmas and happy New Year.
Beginning 1/1/2001: Gold will be $1500 one year, $2500 two years
and $500 quarterly.
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Subscribers please send your comments, questions and suggestions to
Letters.
Silver Investing subscriptions $300 one year; $500 two years; new subscribers
3 month $99.
Gold trading subscriptions $1000 one year; $1500 two years; $300 Quarterly.
Beginning 1/1/2001: Gold will be $1500
one year, $2500 two years and $500 quarterly.
Platinum edition for money managers $5000 per year; $7500 two years;
$1500 quarterly.
Institutional rate is $2500 per month.
"Can you afford NOT to have financial astrology
in YOUR future?"
Stop reading Wall Street, Next Week, last week: YES,
I WANT TO SUBSCRIBE
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