1. MARKETS
2. THIS AND THAT
3. QUOTES
4. PRESS
5. WSNW PRICE INCREASES
6. READERS
TIME TO PARTY LIKE IT WAS 1987, but where are the REAL bargains today?
Last week we saw investors beginning to use common sense and sell.
Short term buying was also warranted on Friday. We expect to see
a further Nasdaq appreciation to 3500/3600.
Well chosen individual stocks of companies that are solid, established
and profitable will do FAR better intermediate term, e.g. Gateway (GTW)
last week.
Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs's chief strategist, said recent selling
in US equities has not changed the market's fundamentals, and the S&P
500 index is undervalued by 15 percent. I think that is using the
term "value" rather loosely. More correct IMHO would be: The S&P index
is overvalued by 15%. None-the-less, We are nearly fully invested
now and will remain so until the election.
Be that as it may, we will continue to buy stocks in sectors that we
believe will do well in 2001. Further, ones that already recently fallen
at least 20% and are down at least 50% from YTD highs.
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY 101:
Our primary astrological reason for our BUY, BUY, BUY call:
Jupiter opposing Pluto on Friday's Full Moon (Pluto rules oil, along
with Neptune). These aspects that pulled Nasdaq up to its second highest
day also suggested a BIG move in the oil markets. We were initially unable
to know in advance whether Oil would jump up or drop last week: it did
both. Thursday, the XOI reached 561, just shy of our 565 target, and it
was easy to know then to sell/short Oil after its 8% rally. This
was richly rewarded on Friday.
On October 18, both Venus opposes Saturn AND Mercury goes SR. It should
be a Red Letter Day. We expect a buying opportunity similar to last week,
although far less dramatic. However,
Finish your December tax selling/portfolio shuffle by the first week
of November. More on this shortly.
KEY DATES: 10/18 Red letter Day
NASDAQ: P1 3400 P2 3500 P3 3600
EURO: Long term BUY
US$: Long term Distribution
2. Watch Sun and EMC this Wednesday. As we have not checked their horoscopes, we do not know whether they are more like GE, which will NOT miss numbers this year or next, or like Lucent. Either way, I would consider selling them both while there is time, or write deep in the money covered calls. One could then buy them back if any blood is spilled, as we did for clients, buying both Lucent and Motorola last week at 21.
We have upgraded Gateway (GTW) to an outperform. It is a rebuy at 43 or better.
Our 5 TOP AGGRESSIVE STOCK PICKS last week were:
Motorola (MOT), Lucent (LU), Compaq (CPQ), Parker Drilling, (PKD) and
United Technologies (UTX).
Our five TOP CONSERVATIVE STOCK PICKS last week were:
ATT and/or Deutsche Telecom (DT), Rockwell (ROK), General Motors (GM),
UNILEVER (UL) and Intel (INTC).
We may both more of these ten stocks if within our value pricing area
next week. Most likely, this will be our last buying time in October.
Thereafter, we distribute and short overvalued stocks with "challenged"
horoscopes and/or as our price targets are reached or exceeded.
3. "October will provide some buying opportunities. But be selective."
Arnold Kaufman, editor, S&P Outlook
HW: Agreed.
"The market is still in an overall correction, with the formerly hot
tech stocks falling like dominoes on a daily basis. The correction will
likely continue until the Nasdaq also has a wash out day."
Robert Dickey, chief technical strategist, Dain Rauscher Wessles
HW: That was Thursday of last week. The next one will be ....
(stayed tuned).
"The odds of a melt down, similar to 1929 or 1987, are very low."
Hugh Johnson, chief investment strategist, First Albany Corp.
HW: 22.6% in a day? Lots of stocks do that and more. It is just
that we are having "sequential" rather than "parallel" crash dates.
However, should Abby Cohen's price targets be right, then the chances will
be very high, not low.
4. NY Post October 9, 2000: FIVE QUESTIONS.
FOX TV Business News on October 10, we gave my super accurate forecast for Friday 13th rally.
Forthcoming: October 19th Yahoo Finance Vision interview by Caleb Goddard circa 2:45 pm on the role of astrology in venture capital.
5. To help celebrate Friday's PPI, the price of our TRADING (gold) edition of Wall Street, Next Week will be increasing January 1, 2001. It will be $500 per quarter, $1500 one year and $2500 for two years. Any subscribers may renew/extend at the old rate of $300 per quarter, $1000 for one year and $1500 for two years until December 31, 2000.
6. READER: Henry, It looks like I have to give you your due credit.
You called this latest down turn pretty accurately. If I may also infer
from what you just wrote, you are beginning to see the upturn. I hope you
are right.
HW: We always hope we are right. However, remember this is not
a return to the "good ole days," but one step closer to next year's ES
(Economic Slowdown) stock market.
READER: I think you are saying the NASDAQ might "crash" some time early
next week, especially if people get margin calls. Is that your Ides of
October? And, you think the rally will last until around election day?
After that ... what then? What stocks do you consider QUALITY stocks? You
inferred that INTC was not a quality stock, at least right now, yet you
listed INTC as one of your conservative 5 stock picks to buy at below 38
(Upstairs/Downstairs). What are quality stock?... CSCO? MSFT? ADBE? SUNW?
IBM? AMAT? AOL? ORCL? At what prices would you recommend we bottom fish
for those quality stocks?
HW: 1) Look to fundamental analyst's forecasts for future profit earnings.
2) Then screen out stocks with a P/E above 66. That should do the trick.
As to Intel under 36, it is both a good trade and/or a good intermediate
term investment.
READER: I'm just wondering where and how you would be "placing your
bets." Of course there is not 100% chance you'll be exactly right, but
like Crocodile Dundee, I'd bet your chances are "better than average" and
I'd be happy to place my bets whenever and wherever yours are going....
You are talking about a post-Ides of October stock rally.... You also said
you want to take most of your profit before election eve. Is the Ides of
October good or bad? The Ides of March were bad for Julius Caesar!
HW: I didn't know Julius was into the stock market! Was that the REAL
reason they murdered him-his client investors panicked? We are not
buying Antipode (Australia and New Zealand) just yet. We would like
to see slightly cheaper currencies and indices closer to support: NZ ~
1800 and Australia ~ 3000.
READER: I have been in Europe the last 3 months watching CNBC when I
could. WHAT A LOUSY MARKET. YOU WERE CORRECT ONCE AGAIN. Please tell
me what has become of DCHT which did strongly recommend a while back. I
don't even see it listed anymore.
HW: DCHT became DCH. We recommended it at .25 to $1. It went
as high as $16 and we sold out our positions.
READER: Is there a general rule of thumb/tip for buying on margin -
5 to 10% of portfolio?
HW: Margin is a somewhat aggressive strategy and should be used only
occasionally for buying opportunities. I believe it should be removed as
soon as price targets are met. I may use some margin up to 20% next
week, but reduce by the election. I never advise using full margin,
as you could have a margin call, and that is almost always a sign of defeat
and loss.
READER: Do you know if it's possible to trade [CCCA*] in the Canadian
markets through any online discount brokerage firms (or their Canadian
equivalents)?
HW: Yes, this is not a problem. Schwab does, TD Waterhouse does
(800-862-9515 is their CD affiliate office number). However, they need
to call their Canadian Desk for a current quote as sometimes they confuse
it with CCCAF which is not trading. If you have problems executing, ask
for a supervisor.
READER: Would you recommend buying this week for a LT investor? Or do
you think the presidential rally will be short-lived?
HW: Yes, short lived for some stocks, but longer term for others. Trade
crushed TMT stocks, but buy value for longer term.
READER: As I am in Europe and have enough US$ assets, I would like to
go for the Euro asset stocks for this alert. Any chance for a quick
list of Euro Stocks to buy?
HW: DT, UL, RD and perhaps PH. Also look to buy Austrian, Dutch and
German blue chips in sectors that will outperform in 2001 (see our November
2001 forecasts) upon any further weakness.
READER: Do you still like MOT after they trimmed estimates? MOT
has opened much lower than $25.
HW: Yes, I love it under 22.
READER: The 5 E's Henry-Euro, Energy, Earnings, Election, and NOW add
Employment to the list!
HW: Noted. That is one reason we love IHI-
applied robotics is an obvious winning sector post election.
READER: FANTASTIC CALL on the market. I did very, very well on Yahoo
short.
HW: Good but cover today. They invited us to be on TV next week. Naturally
we went long at 56 5/8. Of course, this is just a short term play to until
66-72 or Tuesday close: whichever comes first, as our long term buy target
for Yahoo is far under 50.
Beginning 1/1/2001: Gold will be $1500 one year, $2500 two years
and $500 quarterly.
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