1. MARKETS
2. THIS AND THAT
3. ON THE WEB
4. QUOTES
5. LETTERS
INSTANT GRATIFICATION
We are pleased that in today's super fast world, we no longer have
to wait for bull and bear markets to unfold over time. Today, not
only stocks like Priceline (PCLN), but also Eastman Kodak (EK) and Intel
(INTC) will drop more than 20% in one day. Intel is obviously worth
owning in 2001, however, astrologically EK remains negative. As for
PCLN, perhaps after another 80-90% drop, it will become an attractive takeover
candidate.
Remember this is October: we are expecting an early OCTOBER SCARE.
One example was Apple (AAPL) last week.
Stay liquid, make your wish list and for the next two weeks, check
our subscriber UP
STARS, DOWN STARS frequently.
One non-subscriber wrote me and asked: "I want to know when the
market will bottom out and reverse." That information has been posted in
our Daily Market commentary for Gold subscribers. ALL current subscribers
will receive this information in a timely manner. Be a little more patient
and stay prepared.
One final thought: Fed's McTeer says he is "not losing sleep" over the record US trade gap. However, I do, and may be losing some hair as well! BECOME GLOBALLY DIVERSIFIED!
KEY DATES: October 3
NASDAQ: RETEST OF
SUMMER LOWS
DJIA: 10650 PIVOT
EURO:
BUY
2. One obvious Euro-related downgrade is Boeing. While previously rated by us as an outperform (up 50% in the last quarter), we are now doing our first downgrade of BA to market perform. Clearly Airbus has a 10% currency advantage over Boeing that is JUST beginning to hurt.
One possible October stock of the month pick is Parker Drilling (PKD). Our short term target is 9, and intermediate/long term, it is 10-12. Clearly this will be a strong buy should Bush win. However, we think his campaign may have been fatally wounded yesterday. (Astrologically, this election is a coin toss). Like his father, it seems he is not paying enough attention to public opinion and may lose a race that was his to win. Even so, Parker Drilling will be an Afund favorite buy in the 6-7 price range.
3. STOCK MARKET BLUES The fault may be in the stars September 29, 2000 Ken Barry Reuters
4. "Yesterday it was Kodak, today it's Priceline and I'm sure it'll
be somebody else tomorrow. Until we can get out from under this black cloud
of earnings pre-announcements, the market' isn't going to rise."
Todd Clark, head of listed trading, WR Hambrecht
HW: Like we said before, after May (Jupiter/Saturn conjunct in Taurus),
earnings will once again begin to matter.
"I would be surprised to see a price decrease in the first half of
winter, but after that anything can happen."
Jeroen van der Veer, president Royal Dutch [RD]
HW: I would advise you check the farmer's almanac if you would rather
NOT be surprised.
We're not in a free-falling, down bear market because the fundamentals
for the U.S. economy remain superb. But this is a very expensive
market. We've had Intel and Apple warn and, if you owned those stocks,
you got decimated."
Charles Pradilla, chief investment strategist, S.G. Cowen Securities.
HW: Time for a serious "reality check."
5. READER: By the way - Henry's call on Nortel a few weeks ago and
last week's bearish call were brilliant!
HW: Thanks to the use of classical financial astrology.
READER: Were you originally looking for the Danish vote on the Euro
to create the catalyst for a bullish run...or...a fire sale selling climax?
HW: We expected and hoped for a Danish rejection. This will
time the beginning of an intermediate term strong Euro buy signal for us.
READER: Of the roughly 28,000 current U.S. stock recommendations,
36.5 percent are "strong buys,'' 37.5 percent are "buys,'' 25.3 percent
are "holds'' while just 0.4 percent are "sells'' and 0.2 percent are "strong
sells,'' according to First Call data.
HW: Yes, so true, and so amazing.
READER: When to Real Audio for 9/28 report and I got a message that
it had an incorrect DSN entry. Is it me or was there a problem this
week? If so, could you tell me the essence of your weekly message?
HW: The ABS Wise Men site problem.
The essence was Thursday would be a big up day- but that this was a shorting
opportunity as October, i.e. the annual October scare, is coming soon.
READER: Keep up the good work! I am looking forward to you
turning bullish after October (or have I misread your last few updates)?
HW: I will be buying some Telecom bargains aggressively for a short
to intermediate term appreciation. Bullish- hardly. Just trading
the pre-and post election rallies and dramatically reducing our positional
shorts (short term).
READER: This is how our analysts see things. Not as most of Wall
Street see your market but certainly in line with your forecasts. Overnight
Commentary on the US Market: Gerard Minack, Economist, ABN AMRO AU:
"With most of the leading companies still priced for near-perfection,
the risk remains that earning disappointments will continue to eat away
at the market as growth slows and costs rise. Friday night confirms
that we're unlikely to see a 1987-like one-day crash, but the odds favour
a rotating grind lower as companies and sectors fall short of expectations."
HW; Couldn't have said it better myself.
READER: You have not mentioned AFTI stock for quite a while. It is
now about $1.15 a share. Would you recommend buying or do you think
it will go down more until October 15? How do you feel about the company
at this point?
HW: While I am still holding, having been burned once, I am a little
gun shy as to adding more. However, I do like the president and its lead
product, although I have to research its current status. We have no new
opinion, but we are cautious for buying microcaps ahead of Mid-October,
while we are aggressive in buying selected ones after that.
READER: Amazing how astrology (or perhaps Astrologer!) can predict
so accurately BEFORE things like Intel occur.
HW: Yes financial astrology really does work!
READER: Have WAMEX and UNDR gone completely defunct? Do you know?
HW: UNDR did a 1000-1 split, the same as defunct. WAMEX no
word, but may have the same fate.
HW: Do you think PFE will be taking a fall with the rest of the market
or is it likely to become a defensive play like it was on Friday?
I'm trying to decide whether to sell it or not.
HW: The answer depends on who wins the election. I would watch with
a trailing stop loss if a short or intermediate term hold.
READER: Thanks to you, I sold all my tech stocks - AOL, INTC, MSFT,
CSCO, AMAT - at the end of April. I have patiently been sitting on
the sides lines (very hard to do at times) waiting for October except for
a few value buys - IHI, AT&T, and WAMX. Any ways, after last
week, thanks to your predictions and learning about the value buy approach
from you, I saved losing about 13% of my portfolio. I wish I had
found you sooner
HW: Glad to have helped. Please note: ATT is a value buy,
while IHI is aggressive growth (beyond speculation) and WAMX and most microcaps
are pure speculation.
READER: What would you consider a reasonable stop for the short sell
of HWP?
HW: This always depends on your entry and target price. In
general we look to a 3-1 or with extremely high probability a 2-1 risk/reward.
I think about 99 and trailing down to 77 to 85.
READER: Could you please enlighten me why CCCA* has taken such a
HARD HITTING ??!! Down from 0.25 to 0.01 !!?
HW: CANADIAN GAMES. We expect it to turn back shortly. Besides,
it is down on very little volume, not on big volume.
PS I also choose to exercise another 1 million options last week,
so personally I have "faith."
READER: I thought Verizon was on the up/down stars list. Did
you take it off? If so, why?
HW: It reached our first price target, plus I believe the damage
of their unnecessary strike has yet to be priced in. IF it drops
back further, it could be put back on our Telecom buy list. Still,
upon weakness, I would rather own ATT, FON, MOT, AWE and LU over VZ at
this time.
READER: "A staggering 259 stocks hit 52-week lows on the Nasdaq today,
most since May 24; among those are blue chips like Microsoft (MSFT: Nasdaq)
and Dell (DELL: Nasdaq)."
HW: A nice statistic, although Thursday will probably be positive,
we intend to reshort again -Wall
Street, Alert 44F starting then into next week.
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