1. OCTOBER ASTRODATES
2. AOL BYE BYE
3. MARKETS
4. THIS AND THAT
5. ON THE WEB
6. QUOTES
7. LETTERS
1. 10/13 Full Moon 4:53A and Jupiter Opposite Pluto
10/15 Neptune SD
10/18 Mercury SR
10/22 Sun enter Scorpio 10:48P
10/26 Uranus SD
10/27 New Moon 3:58A
2. We are leaving AOL (a valid "short signal"?) in September.
Make sure you email us at our current email contact addresses ending with
"afund.com", i.e. info@afund.com, wsnw@afund.com and hw@afund.com.
FYI: our afund@aol.com account will be replaced by the classier
email address of afund@cancall.com.
3. HOW LOW IS LOW?
This week could bring a buying opportunity, but we believe it is
as much a selling opportunity, i.e. rotate, rotate, rotate. While
we are covering our aggressive shorts before Tuesday's API report and the
September quarterly close, we still have the annual October scare to contend
with. If stocks reach your desired target, it is ok to buy 1/3 late Tuesday
or Wednesday. Fed's Ferguson says some "new economy" stocks are "overvalued."
Well, Duh! Of course in such overvalued markets, we are more inclined
to see the cup half empty rather than half full. Therefore be sure
to have plenty of cash and margin available for midOctober.
While the Euro was heavily undervalued (and remains so), traders will be given another chance thanks to the Danish Euro vote next week. Thereafter we will be buying Euro and Euro assets once again with both hands open. Our trading slogan: "If you liked Oil at $10, you will love the Euro at today's fire sale prices."
On my way to speak at last week's Investment Expo in New York, I passed a sign that had Chase and its logo just above Burger King's. {Disclaimer: I am still short JPM from 180}. I thought this could be Chase's next merger partner. Think of the synergy when you order banking "your way". You would have one stop shopping by ordering a burger, and fries when cashing your paycheck. Best of all, from Chase's viewpoint, they could replace high price bank tellers with lower priced Burger King sales associates.
KEY DATES: September 25, 27, 28
DJIA:
Retest 10621
NASDAQ: Retest 3614
EURO:
Accumulate .8680 OB
4. Possible October Stock of the Month Picks:
Goodyear (GT), a real bargain under 18, Lucent or Motorola under
30 and Intel under 37, (it has a Morningstar value of 43 and a revised
Chase 12 month target of 50, down from 100).
We are also watching Sprint (FON), AWE and Parker Drilling (PKD).
Mpicks: HIRI? (also nicely SRI) or Celsion (CELN) again.
5. HOCUS POCUS
DOESN'T FOOL US by John Crude
HW: Read it and weep.
Dousing
the Competition by Thomas Kostigen points out that water stocks
beat indexes
HW: We agree, and like American Water Works and French Suex Lyonnaise
(SLEDF) for an extra 8% Euro kicker for conservative investing portfolios.
6. IMF- "Capital Flows driving Forex rates, hard to see why Dollar
should decline now."
HW: Take a look at its horoscope and it will be easier to see. Obviously
the Central Bank's astrologers did on Friday.
"How much longer will Americans and foreigners put up with this level
of deficit? Certainly a year or more, but it's very unlikely that we can
do it for ten years."
Prof. Alan Blinder, stressing that he was speaking for himself rather
than the Gore campaign.
HW: A year? Not one month more!
"The Intel news is totally out of the blue. If we get one more downgrade
by another technology company, it's bombs away. Best thing to do now is
sell everything and go watch the Olympics.''
Stephen Bronte, hedge fund manager, Stephen Bronte Partners
HW: Really? Guess you forgot to check its horoscope this week!
"The problem a lot of people are having is, if you sell oil what
do you buy? We are sticking with energy until we can find some other ideas,
and are overweight in financials. There is a still lot of nervousness about
technology where the outlook is not as certain as it was early in the year."
Jamie Sandison, portfolio manager, Edinburgh Fund
HW: I hear cash gives a positive 6%+ return these days. True?
7. READER: After the anticipated correction this week or in the next
few weeks, will most blue chips be a buy? Will you be giving silver investors
any recommendations (besides value)?
What do you think about buying GM, GE, IBM, ORACLE and INTC after
the next couple of weeks or so, as they were your favorites in your forecast
at the beginning of the year? Or should we only buy these if they
are at the value level after the soon coming correction?
HW: Yes to the first question. As to the second set of questions,
it depends. I first have to work on my stock forecasts for 2001/2, which
I plan on doing by early October. In the meantime, regularly visit our
subscriber post at UP
STARS/DOWN STARS.
READER: I have found a book called "Investing by the Stars" by Henry
Weingarten. I was wondering where I can purchase this book. I have looked
at the online bookstores and this book is out of print.
HW: This is being reprinted (by Traders Press) and will be available
in about 4 weeks. You can order it now at our BOOKSTORE.
READER: Screenphone's*
site is getting better all the time. Perhaps there will come a day when
I will be circulating their CDRoms like IHI!
HW: Yes, and using their product. I am looking forward to receiving
two advanced beta versions next week.
READER: HELP! The brokers at TD Waterhouse say that trading
on CCCA has been halted. I have tried the last 2 out of three days
to put in a bid and they said the same thing both times. Do you know
what is going on? Is this another WAMEX thing?
HW: NO! They are 100% wrong. They are confusing CCCAF (which
does NOT trade) with CCCA.O* on the Canadian OTC. Have them call
their CANADIAN desk and ask for a current bid/ask. You can get end
of date quotes at www.tse.com or www.stockwatch.com Symbol: CCCA.
READER: Thank you, thank you, thank you!!! I sold all shares
of MSFT at open and saved thousands so far. It would have been great to
be short.
HW: It often pays to watch insiders. Even Bill Gates just sold 9
million shares - on the advice of his astrologer?
READER: 1. Do you think REITS are worth holding for the 4th quarter
of this year and also into the 1st quarter of next year? Will real
estate decline in 2001?
HW: Depends on what type of REIT as well as whether its yield is
above 7%. In general, this sector should continue to slightly outperform
given their relatively high dividend yields. I am planning to BUY real
estate in 2001 due to an expected decline.
2. Do you believe we will be into a recession by 1st quarter
of 2001?
HW: If the definition of a recession weren't 2 quarters of negative
GDP growth, I wouldn't bet against such a view. An economic slowdown
is certain: Our current internal forecast is for the government to report
first quarter growth between 1.1% to 1.25%.
READER: Sell $ and buy what? Euro? Sterling? Yen?
HW: We are not giving futures advice - but we recommended selling
some stocks ahead of this week's and next week's potential drops.
Especially stocks near their 52 week highs.
Also, we are suggesting that when rebuying, rebuy in European currencies,
i.e. over weighting Euro Stocks later in October. Read our subscriber UP
STARS/DOWN STARS in our premium area.
READER: Are HM and STEM considered small cap or Microcap stocks?
Are they considered high risk like micros? On the stock of the month pick,
why the two different targets?
HW: Neither are small cap. However, Stem is an early stage
biotechnology company and therefore HIGH risk. As to our September
stock of the month pick price targets, the lower target is for short and
intermediate term traders. The higher price target is for intermediate
and long term investors.
READER: Are you still recommending STEM and what would be a decent
entry price? Will the CEO's departure change your opinion on this
stock?
HW: No. We are looking more to buy stocks late Monday or Tuesday,
not today. However, I find this stock very undervalued, anywhere
near $6 is a gift.
READER: Do you lump Texas Instruments (TXN) in with the computer
hardware companies that will be continuing to drop? TXN has quite
a few nice products in the pipeline and getting good recommendations from
some of the brokerage houses (e.g. Prudential estimates $125), but it's
been ratcheting down for quite awhile. 57 is still a ways from its
52 wk low of 37.88.
HW: Lets take a look at this question again on Monday or Tuesday
of next week.
READER: With Saturn retrograding back into Taurus in mid October
do you believe, as I do, that the Dow and old economy stocks will be hurt
(or at least restricted) by the move?
HW: I think a reasonable assumption is that investors will ignore
inflation, high oil prices, an induced economic slowdown and continue betting
more with new economy stocks, energy and utilities excepted.
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