1. MARKETS
2. THIS AND THAT
3. QUOTES
4. LETTERS
IF IT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT PROBABLY IS
There seems to be gentlemen's agreement where there is NO longer a
Deficit problem but rather a LARGE budget Surplus. Hence, SAVING Social
Security will NOT require any SACRIFICE. I disagree strongly. International
investors may look forward to a 4-6% drop in the US Dollar over the next
18 to 24 months. This is why we will be recommending a further reduction
in US stock asset allocation in 2001/2. While currency traders may
wish to repeatedly sell the US dollar into strength, individual investors
can simply accumulate more gold stocks upon weakness, Alternately,
one could add more exposure to European Bourses later this year, or even
more so in 2001.
Until the August 22nd meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, many traders expect more indecision and nervousness on Wall Street. Without question, this state of affairs is "traders heaven". We forecast more of a downward bias post-July 16 eclipse unless....
No Inflation? Go tell that to taxi passengers in Beijing: last week taxis charging 1.2 Yuan per kilometer now begin the basic fare of 10 Yuan at 4 km instead of the previous 5 km. How soon before taxis in Chicago, New York, and Washington D.C. raise their prices?
No Inflation? The average price for apartments in downtown and central
Manhattan climbed by 45 percent in the first six months of the year compared
with the same time period last year,
Your Choice Alan: Raise .25 in August or .50 or more later.
KEY DATES: July 28, 31
NASDAQ: 4000
Floor/Ceiling Tests
IIX/HHH:
Sell
US$
Sell above 1.09
EURO:
BUY
TSE
11,000 Ceiling
Gold:
Accumulate Gold at 280 or XAU 50
2. We were glad to see IBM getting more respect this past week. In our May update to our 2000/2001 Market Forecasts, we listed our 3 favorite DJIA stocks: IBM, GE and GM. Two out of three are now out performing; within 3 months, we expect GM to join in. Still, I would like to buy all three at much lower prices IF POSSIBLE.
On the international front, we were pleased to see The Daily Deal report European Merger activity now surpasses U.S. deals. As to Canada, with the TSE at 10842 and the DJIA at 10733, something has to give. Despite being tech laden, Canada is NOT worth more than the US. After JDSU enters the SP500 this Wednesday, we may downgrade (Sell) the TSE Index. In any case, we are inclined to do so with JDSU: closing and most likely reversing our earlier trading buys at 106, 124 and 126.
While our Gold subscribers were told to buy VZ (Verizon) at 44, I had hoped it would drop closer to 40 so we could make it our July Stock Pick of the Month (SPM). Similarly, we have GM on SPM watch this summer.
3. "Having equity in an Internet company, it's like having Confederate
currency."
Robin Williams
HW: I agree, its value depends on who wins the war.
"Inflation is tame. You've got oil prices that are rising but nothing
else.''
Stephen Slifer, chief U.S. economist, Lehman Brothers Holdings
HW: Air fares have risen at an 18.7 percent annual rate so far this
year.
"Consumers continue to show that they are incredibly price-conscious.''
Steve Wood, senior economist, Banc of America Securities
HW: Except when it comes to buying stocks!!!
4. READER: What is the difference between real and financial assets?
HW: I use these terms to differentiate tangible assets like real estate,
gold and commodities, artwork vs. paper assets like stocks and bonds.
Classically, markets tend to reward one over the other. Until recently,
it has been financial assets, but the cycle shifted in 2000.
Reader: The total phase or totality of last week's eclipse lasted a
remarkable 1 hour and 47 minutes. This is within seconds of the theoretical
maximum duration. A total eclipse hasn't lasted this long since 1859 and
it will not be equaled again for over a thousand years! What does this
mean?
HW: It means you have excitement in commodity markets like Oil and
Cotton, and a pre-FOMC meeting top MAY be in place. If wrong, ask
me in a thousand years, when I have more data.
READER: I have been unable to access to your weekly audio for the last
2 weeks. I get a message that the URL protocol is incorrect. Please check
or let me know what I should be doing differently. I really like listening
to Henry Weingarten.
READER: ...In the past, I down loaded and played back without difficulty.
Based on my previous comment the cause of difficulty may be with my system...The
real audio player does play back other compatible audio files, without
difficulty. The version I happen to be using is freeware and not
their most current version.
HW: Usually this problem can be solved if you reboot your computer
and/or clear your browser cache. However, I always recommend upgrading
to the latest software version. We just upgraded our Real Producer software,
which may be causing the problem. I am personally using their free Real
Player Beta 8 edition, which is working fine. If this does NOT solve
your problem, please write me back as well as the Real
Webmaster. Thank you for your interest.
P.S. As I am a Leo (narcistic?), I also like listening to Henry Weingarten's
broadcasts. :)
READER: Recently, you said Computer Associates (CA) would be a buy at
22, and that's where my buy order is. With the disappointing earnings,
the stock nose dived to 25. Do you still recommend buying at 22, or are
all bets off now?
HW: Yes, if you don't own any fallen angels like CA. Stocks do not
fall down to such levels on good news. Despite having EXTREMELY selfish
management and poor leadership, fundamentally, on an intermediate long
term basis, a CA investment at 22 is relatively safe. Over time, it should
provide above average returns. However, if you already have several, this
could be a problem, as portfolio diversification across style as well as
sector, is desirable. Note: This is also a play like Honeywell that
could be traded 24-26 with a tight stop, and if it drops to 22, turned
into an intermediate term investment.
READER: What is the difference between silver and gold [subscription]?
HW: Since you are an active trader, our gold subscription
is better as it gives our Daily Market Commentary plus our WSNW
Alerts potential market shifts. It also includes all Silver (Investing)
services.
READER: I am living a current NIGHTMARE as my so called money manager
bought me AWE. As I have done very well with my other wireless stocks
I have no belief in this one. Do you have an opinion of AWE?
HW: We had/have a trading buy on it at 22-24 which is currently profitable.
Even if he/she bought higher at 29-30 you will probably "get even" this
year. NO one stock holding in a portfolio is critical as it could
be hedging other positions. But if you wish to avoid nightmares,
the easiest solution I know is: Hire me as your Money
Manager!
READER; [RE: WSNW
43B] I agree with this! BRADLEY HIGH TOMORROW, probably early morning
then down into 25th for the next scheduled cycle bottom.
HW: Like WSNW 43A last week, GMTA!
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