1 JULY ASTRODATES
2. MARKETS
3. STOCK OF THE MONTH CLUB
4. QUOTES
5. MICROCAPS
6. LETTERS
1. July 1 Solar Eclipse 3:20 pm
July 16 Lunar Eclipse 9:55 am
July 17 Mercury SD
July 22 Sun enters Leo 8:43 am
July 30 Solar Eclipse 10:25 pm
2. ROCK AND ROLL WITH 3 JULY ECLIPSES: BE CAREFUL ABOUT BUYING ON THE
DIPS
After end of the quarter window dressing next week, will the Summer
rally be over, or is it just beginning? Either way it will NOT go in a
straight line, as July has 3 eclipses to keep market watchers from becoming
bored. First stop Mexico.
Hopefully, your portfolio was not negatively affected by Amazon's plunge on Friday. This was one reason we posted our High Tech Summer/Fall 2000 on our web site last weekend.
DONT FIGHT THE FED
More than 83.461% of the time when this advice is ignored, it hurts!
Speaking of the Fed, Alan Greenspan and the Clinton administration both
voiced opposition to a new proposal to double the limit on bank deposit
insurance to $200,000. Greenspan said it would give "increased subsidies
to upper-income individuals." Oh really? Let us hope his real reason
was not due to fear. According to one web post:
"This, in my opinion, is a tacit admission of the frailty and systemic
risk in the system. Not even the US govt wants to really increase its exposure.
Mattress time folks!"
Key Dates: June 30, July 2
DJIA: S1 10,200 S2 10,000 S3 9800
R1 10,400 R2 10,500 R3 10,577
NASDAQ: 4000 Ceiling, Support at 3600? 3200?
or 2800!
DJTI:
Accumulate
YEN:
Sell 103-105
MEXICO: Sell
3. As you are no doubt aware, Jupiter is moving into Gemini on June 30. This will bring focus to the transportation sector, especially railroads and Telecommunications. Upon a good pull back, we are considering General Motors (GM), Canadian Pacific (CP) and ATT Wireless (AWE). Alternately, we may play with the knowledge based industries such as Internet learning, e.g. VCAMPUS (VCMP) or VirtualAcademics (VADC).
4. "The trend-followers are just going crazy because there really is
no trend one way or the other at this point in time."
John Manley, chief equity strategist, Salomon SmithBarney
HW: In Zen, it is known as the "trendless trend."
"Failure to keep focused on the long term has cost the average investor
dearly. "
Tocqueville's President Robert Kleinschmidt Who
Wants to Stay a Millionaire?
HW: Me! Me!
"The bifurcation in the market is a function of technology being clearly
singled out as area where neither economic conditions nor interest rates
matter much and therefore investors are willing to pay the premiums that
they have."
Ned Riley, chief investment strategist, State Street Global Advisors
HW: Nonetheless, many will be paying the piper in 2001-2002.
5. I am writing this while the SEC crackdown on Microcaps is front page news. I strongly applaud its action in general, and feel it will help make investors more careful. From a cyclical viewpoint, we were correct in forecasting that there would be an explosion of activity from January to March 2000. We are expecting another bull run (although less wild) from Mid October until the end of 2000. Remember, Microcaps rarely lead Bull markets, but follow in most cases, as investors are willing to accept more risk. Consider the following five points carefully before you invest: read Microcap Investing.
6. READER: Do you expect Nasdaq to go UP next week till 4000 , should we start to buy today [Friday]? HW: I don't think so, we just started selling. Perhaps it is a bottom, but I believe 4000 is a strong ceiling, at least until after the FOMC meeting is over.
READER: Ok, Amazon.com (AMZN) has busted through its support level of
40 and is currently at around 33 which is a 12 month low. A while ago you
listed AMZN's value price at 13. With the current news, do you still hold
by that number or is it worth even less now? I have a buy order at 15.
Do you think that's still a good idea? Where would you try to catch AMZN,
or would you at all?
HW: Personally I would never buy it as a long term investment until/unless
they change their business model. I would cover any shorts around
20. Thereafter, I might trade it either side from 13 to 40 depending
on general market conditions.
READER: So we know that you like T. I did buy some at 33 1/2 but am
now thinking it could go lower. Any opinion on that? Also, as you like
beaten down stocks, what about WCOM ?
HW: Yes, it could go to 32, but even so, we think it will be back up
to 42 to 45. I don't WCOM as a company, so don't track it. How about AWE
22-24?
READER: I have heard there is to be a big ASTRO Conference in Vegas
in July. If that is true, are you a speaker?
HW: I will be giving a short talk on the evening of 7/11 at the Hotel
Rio.
READER: Would you please explain what is going on with WAMX and IHITF.
What is future price movement you expect on these stocks?
HW: As to Wamex, it is under double Saturn (serious problems/challenges
to be faced). We are following the news and will know more in a week or
two.
As to IHITF, we must sound like a broken record. I maintain this is
a highly under appreciated stock. We are simply waiting for the market
to catch up with our perceptions, which I believe is sometime between now
and their Robotic installation and production in late Fall.
READER: I was very interested to read your market forecasts for the
coming year on your web site. I work in the venture capital industry in
the UK, and would like to know if you think financial astrology could be
usefully applied in that market. For instance, could the fortunes of a
company be forecast from a horoscope based on the timing of its first-round
funding or IPO?
HW: ABSOLUTELY. But if the normal rate of success is say 1-10,
using astrology it will become 3 in 10, not 10 out of ten.
Do any VCs in the US use financial astrology to help decide whether
to invest in a business?
HW: I know one very small one, but probably it is being done.
In a management buy-in situation, should the managers' horoscopes
be checked for compatibility with the company?
HW: ABSOLUTELY.
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