1. MARKETS
2. INFLATION?
3. JUPITER IN GEMINI
4. QUOTES
5. LETTERS
NEW YORK AS COW COUNTRY
By next week at this time, New York City is going to have more than
500 decorated statues of cows in parks and traffic islands. With
so many cows roaming the city, Bulls are sure to follow. So even
though this is options expiration week, and news reports on Tuesday and
Wednesday, we plan on a little buying at the beginning and the end of the
week. Thereafter until the end of June, the markets should be on Fed watch.
Accordingly, we will mostly trade beaten up stocks like ATT on long side
and select Internuts on the short side.
"BAD NEWS" when no longer uncertain, is NOT good news!
Whether interest rate hikes or Microsoft break up news, think in terms
of consequences, not the market's short term reflex reaction. The
former has contributed to the long term bull market in the US dollar ending
May 19th 2000. As for the latter, this is BAD news for Microsoft
as they can no longer freely bully potential competitors as in the past.
However, longer term, i.e. the second half of 2001, is more bullish astrologically
and fundamentally for MSFT.
Solar Flares: "Finally, the sun is beginning to flex its muscles," said solar forecaster Dave Speich of the federal Space Environment Center in Boulder. The sun is approaching the height of its 11-year storm cycle. Unlike previous cycles, this period has been relatively quiet. But this may soon change.
Dont forget the May 28 Jupiter/Saturn message:
Buying and holding value WILL is coming back into style.
Keydates: June 12, 16
Resistance: DJIA 10820, Nasdaq 4000
OIL: Reduce hedging
2. "The markets may seize on these figures today as good news,
but they would wise to heed the underlying trend. A drop in energy
prices and food costs kept the May headline figure flat. The core figure
was only slightly above the consensus estimate, but these figures could
obscure the broader trend. Inflation is hardly dead. On annual basis,
producer price pressures are increasing. Prices at all stages of production
continue to rise."
Oscar Gonzalez Economist, John Hancock Financial Services
HW: According to USA today, the number of grand hotels, with
rooms costing over $1000 per night ,is increasing rapidly. And if
there is REALLY no inflation, why has my local 99 cents store begun advertising
itself as $.99+?
3. As we wrote in our annual S:
2000/2001 Market Forecasts May 18:
"This summer (June 30, 2000) Jupiter moves into Gemini, helping transportation
and communication sectors.
While wireless usage will easily meet optimistic
usage expectations, I prefer to buy only when there is some real value
in this sector, e.g. rather than buying Nokia (NOK), I will buy ATT (T)
with its mixed horoscope and fundamentals for a trade back to 42.
While this will benefit companies like Fedex, I
prefer the railroad companies for conservative portfolios, e.g. UNP or
BNI or if you desire the "Canadian Kicker" CNI and CP.
However, there is more relative value in transportation
stocks such as General Motors (GM), Ford (F), or Volkswagen (VLKAY) with
its Euro kicker."
[Note: This report in full will be posted on the public area of website
after Friday's Full Moon.]
3. "New highs for the Dow and the S.&P. 500 are very possible early
this Summer."
Christopher Cadbury
HW: Next week, it may very well seem that way. However, by the
time the Summer starts (June 20), that view may change again (Mercury goes
SR Friday June 23rd.)
"We had a real sentiment shift and investors are afraid of missing the
boat."
Art Hogan, chief market analyst Jefferies
HW: How soon they forget. How will they feel on September
24?
4. Anyway I am still bearish on NASDAQ. We will again see level
of 3216 being breached. Then it will test 2900 levels. Let us see, what
actually happens.
HW: Yes, we agree this will probably happen between the Summer to early
Fall. We are mildly bullish next week. For the rest of the month,
we will will be either cautiously (hedged) long or take a contrarian balance
of long Value and short aggressive Growth.
READER: Re: Remember its party time in July: Rock and Roll with 3 July
eclipses. Henry What does this mean? Up or down for the markets?
HW: More volatile than usual. How that is possible should prove interesting
and most likely both UP and Down or Down and UP with the July 16th eclipse
flipping the market direction of the first two weeks.
READER: What is your own personal opinion (don't worry I am not buying
many more) about IHI's stock price 6 months after it goes into commercial
production - will it go to 30.00?
HW: That would be nice, but I don't believe so. Certainly I would
expect to see IHITF reach $5 to $10. Perhaps after they announce their
plans to take orders on the Internet, well then, maybe $30....
READER: Longer term over a 5 year period 30.00 on the cards?
HW: Yes I hope so. Otherwise, I was wrong to build such a big
wine cellar.
[Several years ago, I asked friends and clients who bought IHI stock
to give me a fine bottle of champagne when it reached $30].
READER: I have two questions. First of all, how can you Henry,
as a very good astrologer be surprised that the Nasdaq rallied on Thursday
and Friday? Just look at the Aspects. Second, at what price would you buy
T? With its natal chart, I can see that it will ill have some upswing,
but only to 42? That hardly seems worth it as it closed at 35 1/8.
HW: It seems rather jaded to me to say that a 20% increase in
value intermediate term, with relatively low market risk, is "hardly worth
it"! I bought some ATT on Thursday close, but continuously
bought T on Friday all day. It could go higher than 42-45 if the
market soars to 12,000, but it would no longer at that point have relative
value. [By my view, even at 34 is does not have absolute value, which
I calculate to be under 30.]
I still don't independently chart the Nasdaq, although I may soon have
to if the DJIA/Nasdaq inverse relationship continues for much longer.
READER: ....Nobody, of course, except Afund....
[After Gold rose for four straight sessions] "This rally is serious
because it's gradual and it's dollar- related,'' said George Gero, senior
vice president-investments at Prudential Securities in New York, who's
been trading gold futures since 1974. "Nobody expected there to be so much
interest in gold.''
HW: Well if you are not calling me a "nobody", I will take that
as a compliment. Thank you! :)
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