1. SANE MARKETS
2. CNN: IN THE MONEY
3. BUY HOLLAND
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
Be Happy with DOUBLES instead of TRIPLES while HOME RUNS will be
far less frequent
Was NTT buying Verio a market timing signal similar to the Japanese
buying Rockefeller Center properties? We are using May 5th's closing
numbers for our positional shorts. Motorola collapsed last week when
Alex Cena of Salomon reduced his forecast to 120 from 200. If you
are a market bull, buying in the 80's was heaven sent. If you are a value
player, then waiting for the 60's would be a better long term buy target.
After May, most tech stocks will be given more conservative targets, i.e.
a high flying stock in the mid 20's may have a price target of only 45-55
instead of 75.
What comes after the FOMC meeting? If the market is euphoric on a .50 basis hike, then it is a great opportunity for traders to short around the May 5th closing numbers, e.g. Nasdaq 3816. Will 10800 and 4000 be reached by the Summer? Both resistance numbers make momentum trading on the DOWNSIDE a lot safer.
Recently, the market has been going down on news that interest rate increases still lie ahead and the technology sector is well over valued. On days when they "forgot", i.e. believed this news is already built in, the market rallied. But the reason the market WILL eventually decline on interest rate increases is not the event itself but its effects: 1) It will reduce corporate profits in 2001 and 2) for conservative investors, close to a positive and safe 7% return is very attractive. For the first time in a long time, it will provide an real alternative to investing in the stock market and therefore could reduce fresh money inflows.
Next week we plan will do a small amount of buying. I like cash rich companies that can buy back their own stock: ATT, IBM, GM, etc. Internuts should buy on Internet time, not investing time (holds longer than one month). Next week we like the trading risk/reward of buying gold sector stocks (HM, ABX) and selling Brokerage Stocks (SCH, MER), assuming a "sane" market response to the Fed.
KEY DATES: May 16, 17, 18
NASDAQ: 3816
Ceiling
EURO:
BUY TO .92
T:
S1 36 S2 34 S3 31 R1 38
R2 39 R3 42
GOLD:
STRONG BUY
2. We are pleased that our 8th Annual Astrology and Stock Market Reception/Seminar will be covered by CNN among several other major press organizations. I will be featured be on Friday May 19th, on CNN IN THE MONEY, circa 11:45 am with some of our top pick highlights.
3. The Netherlands Index Webs: EWN are a cheap and easy way to buy Holland
and benefit from
intermediate term Euro appreciation.
4. "There is kind of a relief here that it is going to be 50 [basis
points]. I think the removal of the uncertainty has people coming back
into stocks, as crazy as it seems.''
Guy Truicko, portfolio manager Unity Management
HW: The usual disconnect or not? This is May2000!
''We've already seen a lot of damage in this market. We had a vicious
shakeout about a month ago. Now, they can throw bad news at us and
we won't react as badly.''
Larry Wachtel, market analyst Prudential Securities
HW: So what you are saying is that investors are both insensitive
as well as losers?
YOU HAVE TO GO TO WORK NEXT WEEK: NASA.
[Re: May 5} "The world hasn't ended any of the other times that the
planets moved into what astronomers call conjunction, so there's no reason
to think it will this time."
HW: I guess not only does NASA invest not in the stock market, but
that it may also be suffering from short term memory loss in forgetting
about Atlantis.
5. CELESTIAL MARKET FORECASTING.
InoculateIT. CA is offering free downloads of antivirus software for personal use at http://antivirus.ca.com/ and we STRONGLY encourage all computer users to take advantage of this offering if you are not currently using antivirus software.
6. READER: Are you still expecting more downside overall before the
end of the month or does one start prudent purchasing??
HW: It is possible that we will see another hefty down draft.
However, we recommend a little PRUDENT purchasing, beginning (slowly) mid
next week.
READER: Re: "The Euro is undervalued and destined to grow.'' Italian
Prime Minister Giuliano Amato
<< ahahah! Henry, please, don't take this guy as a serious one!>>
HW: I never take any politician seriously, but the Euro by the end
of 2001 will be much stronger than today (even with Greece.).
READER: All I do is set a profit obj.....i really don't know what I'm
doing.that's why I never make any money....or rarely......
HW: Decide in advance an "acceptable loss per trade" and have a risk/reward
and probability profile set before entering every trade.
If you rarely make money trading on your own, perhaps you should work
with someone or hire a money manager. Alternately, you may have a better
horoscope as an investor than a trader.
READER: Do you think the European Wireless Telecom sector is going down
with the rest of the Market? Don't they have different natal charts?
For example Ericcson and Nokia?
HW: Yes they do, but 50% of stock price is due to overall market direction,
25% to sector membership and only 25% to the stock itself.
WHILE both should benefit from the Euro, both have increasing competition
and the good news is built in for the next 10 years. One stumble
and a big fall and a market God is no longer a hero but a dog. I
just prefer market cats! :)
READER: What is your opinion (astrologically and technically) on PLUG,
target price to buy?
HW: I have no astrological opinion on Plug. Technically AND fundamentally
I consider it is a sell. Its only real asset is having GE as a partner.
Currently many insiders may be dumping it. You might wish to buy at 18-22,
but I doubt if it is really worth even that much.
READER: Ok, the market is going to tank in May. Based upon that assumption,
please recommend up-to-date purchase prices for some of your favorite stocks.
I think perhaps a two-tiered plan might be good for the upcoming opportunity.
For instance, no matter how much IBM drops, it will probably spring back
in the near future. Maybe you buy 100 shares at 80 (P1) and 200 shares
at 50 (P2) to cash in on a very severe drop?
As things stand now, where would be your P1 and P2 for your following
favorites: ADBE, AMD, AMZN, AOL, CA, CPQ, CSCO, GE, INTC, IBM, INTU, JNJ,
MSFT, ORCL, RFMD, SUNW, YHOO. It's getting down to crunch time, and we
want to take every advantage of the opportunity.
HW: We are using Time more than Price entries and will likely do 25%
buy (1/4 of allocated cash) next week.
READER: Henry, A hearty congratulations- you picked it 100% right
and have done so incredibly well this year. Who wouldn't think being a
subscriber to your services is worth its weight in gold and also peace
of mind.
HW: Especially after gold is over $300!
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