MAY 4TH EARLY EDITION
1. MARKETS
2. Financial Astrology 101
3. WSNW ALERT 41A
4. QUOTES
5. LETTERS
HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU BE WORTH END BY THIS END OF NEXT WEEK?
Consider May 3-5 similar to August 87 and the next two weeks as similar
to October 87. However, with cycle compression, the market action unfoldment
will occur in days rather than weeks. Up until the FOMC meeting on May
16th, we are in the most dangerous times, with the highest risk.
Maybe nothing will happen, but unless you are prepared for a great storm,
you could consider yourself foolhardy in retrospect. Consider yourself
warned and act appropriately (preferably under professional guidance).
Morgan Stanley likes MICROSOFT [MSFT] stock price "in the Sixties." Well, I like it "in the Fifties" much better!
''[AT&T] It's a train wreck right now. Who wants to own a big elephant with minimal revenue growth.'' said one industry analyst. If you are sure the DJIA is going to 12,000, then ATT under 40 would be a buy. If are you unsure, then wait for the mid 30's. If you are a professional money manager and must invest, then ATT will provide mild relative out performance. However, next week could be the bloodiest in recent memory. Given the risk/reward, I recommend waiting a few more days.
As to wage inflation, the answer is NOT more immigration, but more robots.
One no brainer is the future of Applied Robotics. In a contest between
man and machine, machines win in a number of areas, (but fortunately not
all). Over the next few years, portfolio tracking of scientific/technical
companies in this sector will be as common as the Internet is today.
WSNW subscribers should over time view our developing post: Robotics.
How to take advantage of the Fall of the Euro.
Next week, European stocks should fall in sync with US markets. However,
on the positive side, this is near the bottom of the EuroSTART. Within
two weeks, we will be "buying Holland." Also if you wish to act earlier,
look to balanced hedges such as Buy RD/Sell XOM, Buy ABN/Sell CMB and Buy
UL/Sell PG.
INVESTORS: PREPARE YOUR DREAM BUY LIST FOR LATE MAY
KEY DATES: May 9, 10, 12
DJIA: 10,000 Test
NASDAQ: S1 3200 S2 3000 S3 2800
EURO: BUY 88-90
T: S1 38 S2 36 S3 34
R1 39 R2 42 R3 44
2. FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY 101
MAY 3: "[May 3] is the Most Important date in a month Full of Big ASTRO
events!!! All visible (7) bodies (incl Sun & Moon) are in the
sign of Taurus. This will focus feelings about VALUE!!! I said in
April letter: "Will our markets survive the comparison?"
EVERY GROUPING OF THIS TYPE SINCE 1800 HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY BIG DOWN!!!
Arch Crawford
HW: Obviously a good call. Our forecast was for May 3-5, but
with May 3 less pivotal than May 5 and on a par with two other astrological
dates in May to come.
PS We advised re-entering shorts May 4th and 5th that we recommended
covering on the afternoon of May 3rd.
May 13th: Uranus (Technology) square (challenged by) Saturn (Reality).
3. WSNW ALERT 41A:
"May 4th: Use today's rally to (re) short. Some risk ahead of tomorrow's
new and then be fully short over the weekend. I am taking an early
vacation Friday, as next week will be the most incredible week of this
century (to date). Cheers, all"
READER: Next week most incredible of the CENTURY Henry?
Due to the Taurus lineup? Here am I with 4 natal planets in Taurus
and Ascendant......is intense.....
Anyway, don't leave us hanging with that line without a follow up please.
HW: The market will be bloody awful!
4. "We expect that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to raise interest
rates by 75 basis points or more in the coming months, but that Canada's
central bank will not raise rates by as much as the Fed. This will be one
of the factors that will help Canada's stock market outperform the U.S.
stock market this year.''
Marc Levesque, senior economist TD Bank Financial Group
HW: Let's not forget Canada's horoscope, which, after all, is the MAJOR
reason.
"Hold onto your hats. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's "nightmare
is beginning to come true."
Joel Naroff, president Naroff Economic Advisers
HW: Clairvoyant or creator of his own reality. Guilty as charged!
5. READER: Would prefer to watch some old "Three Stooges" movies [to
attending your AFUND seminar.]
HW: That may also be very appropriate to help understand today's market
activities, so I understand your choice.
READER: Do you believe that it would be wise to buy gold stocks today
and tomorrow, on the assumption that if the market crashes next week they
will go up? Or would you be more inclined to sit and wait for the fire
sale to start?
HW: I already own gold stocks for insurance purposes. If you wish to
trade them or do a first investment, they are equally dependent on the
US dollar strength, which may continue for some time. That being
said, I would buy sooner, rather than later.
READER: I'm a bit confused about your value process. For instance, in
your 4/29 DJIA Forecasts, you say IBM has a value price of 68. Yet, in
your recent A Fund Computer Stock listing, you say IBM is a value buy at
55. I the 5/1 WSNW, you said people might really start buying IBM at 60
but it might drop below 50. What about stocks like Coke? You gave
KO a value price of 51, and that's about what it is now... and it was lower
recently. If these stocks are fairly valued now, what would happen to them
if and when the Dow hits your value target of 7000?
HW: First, always check the latest date for our most recent view.
News, earnings reports etc., change valuation. At times, I am referring
to Morningstar's value, at other times I am referring to the Astrologers
Fund view of its REAL value.
A Value buy is the price at which I would buy a stock SHOULD be below
its valuation. I like to buy stocks that are undervalued, and sell stocks
that are overvalued. This is value investing. The second part
of the rating equation is our short, intermediate and long term rating.
In the case of Coke it is a 3 or market neutral. This means if the market
goes down so will Coke. However, if you are concerned with safety,
it is likely to hold relative value well as JNJ did at 67. I am still
waiting for the middle to end of May before much buying. However,
that does not mean that some stocks will not reach their lows before then.
READER: My interest is whether Jupiter Saturn Conjunction and progression
into Gemini will benefit long established medical technology stocks like
MDT, GDT, and BSX. An article in "The Mountain Astrologer" stated online
education will be focus during Jupiter/Saturn Conjunction. H.W., do you
have a problem with medical/surgical or education stocks?
HW: I agree that online education and medical stocks are good sectors
long term. In an election year, I would be cautious on the medical area.
As to Fuel cells, it depends on who wins the election as to how soon
they will be profitable investments. I don't follow the logic of online
education stocks rising during the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction. I believe
it is more astro-logically likely during Jupiter in Gemini.
READER: I would just like to clarify something. On your page you have
written "start to prepare your dream buy list for late may". I have
my list ready, but after this upcoming major decline won't it take a long
bottoming process? in other words, do you expect that the markets
are not going to immediately bounce back (as investors have gotten used
to recent years)?
HW:I don't know, but we will do a first buy this month anyway.
If the market goes lower, we will buy again. If it does not, we will still
have cash. Whether it takes a long time to go back up or goes straight
back up, doesn't overly concern me. Remember 2000 is an election
year, so the problems will more likely arrive after the election.
READER: I don't totally understand what happened to AFTI, but I know
it wasn't good! Is the company going to survive this $2 million write off?
The stock's back to 1 now... would you be buying at $0.25? $0.125?
If the stock has a chance to rebound, then it would be worth it to average
down. What do you advise?
HW: I generally DON'T advise averaging down. This is usually recommended
because an investor/broker does not like to admit a mistake. If,
however, you know a company well and think it is a temporary market misvaluation,
then it is alright to buy it
As to AFTI, its success WILL depend on market acceptance of its products
such as Safe Message.
READER: 1) In your newsletter under Key Dates: May 3-5, you had DJIA:
S1, S2, S3 & R1, R2, R3. What are these? I can't find any keys.
2) Is LDW a buy at 3/4 at this time.
HW: 1) Support and Resistance numbers- see our FAQ.
2) This is not my first choice, but probably ok for a first buy, if
you dont own any.
READER: DJIA I am tracking for a long long time. The Charts indicate
a very bearish pattern, as per my earlier E Mail. Might test 8500 levels
and even lower.
HW: While I would love that to be true this month, I currently give
it a 25-50% chance. Will know more precisely May 18th.
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